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'EARTH SHIFT REPORT 5: SYRIA GAME CHANGER (What do Russia, US, Iran & Israel really want?)'
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'EARTH SHIFT REPORT 5: SYRIA GAME CHANGER (What do Russia, US, Iran & Israel really want?)'
IS COPYRIGHT 10/2015 LADA RAY, AUTHOR. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
NO copying/ reposting/ reprinting! NO direct links to this report page!
Please bookmark this page or save its url so you can return to it in the future!
ESR 5
SYRIA GAME CHANGER
What do Russia, US, Iran and Israel really want?
On top of this report, read extensive March 23, 2016 update, dedicated to Russia's withdrawal from Syria.
The original October 2015 SYRIA GAME CHANGER is below this update.
LADA RAY REPORT UPDATE 3/23/16
Putin Announces Troops Withdrawal from Syria.
Russia’s Accomplishments, Withdrawal Reasons Revealed!
(This update is also published as a separate FuturisTrendcast LADA RAY REPORT)
Putin is the most unpredictable politician in the world: he always tells the truth.
As many times before, Putin openly pre-announced Russian objectives in Syria and said that once they have been achieved, Russia will withdraw. It appears the West was under a complete impression Putin was lying. No wonder: that’s how they themselves behave, and they expect the same behavior from others. Their feeble minds can’t fathom that there are few out there who actually tell the truth.
What were Russia’s main objectives? Let’s hear it directly from the horse’s mouth.
This talk show Evening with Vladimir Soloviev of March 15, 2016, dedicated to Russian withdrawal from Syria (Вечер с Владимиром Соловьевым. Спецвыпуск от 15.03.16), includes an excerpt from the televised October 2015 interview with President Putin. Incidentally, Evening with Vladimir Soloviev is my top recommended Russian political talk show.
I have translated the interview snippet. Soloviev (S), President Putin (P).
On this video, the October 2015 Putin interview recording starts at 23:12 and ends at 24:50:
S: What are our real goals in Syria and what are the criteria of our success?
P: First, let me re-confirm what is already a well-known fact: we have advised in advance our American and many other partners, as well as the countries in the region, of our plans and intentions. Some say we did it too late, but let me remind everyone that no one ever advises us of their plans or actions in operations of this kind. Yet, we did it.
S: Show of good will?
P: Yes, out of good will, together with common sense. But also to show that we are open to cooperation.
S: Syrian army began advancing. What are their chances of success?
P: This primarily depends on the Syrian army and Syrian leadership. We can’t assume any excessive responsibility upon ourselves, and we never did. I said from the start that the active phase of our Syrian operation will be limited in time by the term of the advancement of this same Syrian army. To return to your first question: our goal is specifically to stabilize the legitimate power in Syria and to create the conditions for the political dialogue and compromise.
That was said in October 2015. The whole Russian plan, timeframe and intentions were laid out clearly, for all world to hear.
Video (Putin at 23:12 – 24:50 – RUS):
LR: To add to the above, Putin and Russian Army command announced from the start that Syrian op would last 5-6 months. There were tons of doom-and-gloomers everywhere, including Russian opposition from Zhirinovsky’s LDPR to pro-West anti-Putin liberals. These predicted that Russia would get stuck in Syria, like US did in Iraq and Afghanistan, that it will be Afghanistan 2.0 for Russia, that casualties would mount…
The active phase of Russian Syrian op actually ended in 5 months. There were only two operation-related military casualties, due to Turkey’s downing of the Russian jet and rescue helicopter. Unfortunately, there were civilian casualties: terrorist act against Russian plane over Sinai, Egypt, with 224 people dead.
On March 14-15, 2016 Putin Announced Russian Troops Withdrawal from Syria. The West is in shock. They are so used to their own lies, as well as the world around them based solely on lies, that they can’t fathom how Putin can actually promise something and keep his word. As we know, the White House, Pentagon, US State Dept and NATO were completely unprepared and didn’t know what to say or how to react to the news.
I will talk much more in-depth about Putin’s strategy and style, which – I predict – will continue to surprise and stomp his adversaries, in the upcoming EARTH SHIFT REPORT FEATURE: THE PUTIN ENIGMA. You can always check the main EARTH SHIFT REPORT page on LadaRay.com for release dates of each report.
In my bestselling Earth Shift Report 5: SYRIA GAME CHANGER, released in October 2015, and in a number of other pieces, I said time and again that Putin would outplay them all. He will make his next move when no one expects it, and he will always be one, two, three moves ahead of the next guy.
Main reasons for Russian troops withdrawal from Syria revealed!
I didn’t call this Earth Shift Report 'SYRIA GAME CHANGER' by accident. What Russia did in Syria in the mere five months truly was a total game changer and a complete turnaround.
Below is a long list of objectives of the Russian Syria campaign that have been achieved in five months. (I challenge you to compare this list of things promised and delivered to what the multi-year US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq have done to those countries; what NATO bombings have done to Libya; what the US/EU 2-year+ interference in Ukraine has turned the country into!)
Important things to remember:
Let’s recall that Russia announced from the start that there will be no ground operation. It was clear that Russia doesn’t want to repeat Soviet and US mistakes in the Middle East.
Also, let’s remember that this withdrawal is partial. This is a gesture designed to send a specific message to all parties involved, and to the global community in general. What this message is – we’ll discuss below.
Russia merely announced the end to the active phase of Syria operations. There are two bases and sufficient number of troops/crews left. Russia still controls the Syrian sky. S-400 systems remain there, which means that any flights over Syria have to be coordinated with Russia.
Additionally, it has been hinted that Russian jets, troops and ships can be returned back within hours, should necessity arise. In fact, Vladimir Putin announced that starting March 22 Russia may re-start operations against those who attempt to break the truce. This remark had a fabulous response. Those groups who thought they could begin fighting with Assad troops again once Russia left, got back to negotiations table.
Russia spent on Syrian operation $450 million. That’s all. This constitutes less than 1 percent of the Russian defence budget.
I don’t have handy the Pentagon or NATO budget numbers, but isn’t it something like their weekly allowance? Incidentally, let’s compare this to how much US spent in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Russian accomplishments in Syria and associated withdrawal reasons:
1. ISIS oil infrastructure – destroyed or weakened; ISIS military and terrorist infrastructure – destroyed or weakened. Multi-billion investments of ISIS/Al Nusra/ Muslim Brotherhood’s sponsors Qatar, Saudis and Turkey – destroyed. ISIS, Turkey, Saudi and Qatar oil – synthetic drug – slave – artifact smuggling ring broken, which means that the financing of terrorist activities has been dealt a major blow.
2. What really goes on in Syria has been exposed for the whole world to see. Before, the Western propaganda had a monopoly on Syria stories, presenting its usual false narrative. Now, with Russian direct footage and access given for the Western press to Russian bases and battle ships patrolling Mediterranean much of the false narrative changed dramatically. Having seen the truth, US and EU became unable to accuse Russia or Assad of various actions they didn’t commit. The Western propaganda ring has been broken and the tide has been reversed.
3. Some of the potential new recruits have been scared away from joining ISIS-Daesh and other terrorist organizations by Russian Syria campaign. The idea that they would be bombed by Russian jets, should they join, stopped many. Therefore, the lives of some of the young, lost people residing on the territory of the Russian Federation, EU and various Muslim counties, have been saved.
Per Russian statistics, about 5,000 Russian citizens joined ISIS, mostly Muslims from Caucasus, Siberia, Volga Tatars and Crimean Tatars. Also thousands joined from Muslim ex-Soviet Central Asia and Azerbaijan. These were recruited through mosques and infiltrated propagandists. The flow of ‘fresh cannon fodder’ has been at least slowed down, if not stopped.
One of pre-announced Russian goals was to prevent the already trained ISIS militants from being able to return back home, which they could do with their Russian passports. The official Russian statistics is that out of 5,000 ISIS militants with Russian passports 2,000 have been killed as a result of Russian raids.
4. Another Russian goal was to keep Syria secular and inclusive of other religions, in other words, prevent Syria from turning into another Muslim fundamentalist state. There are many Christians (both Orthodox and Catholics) that lived in Syria in peace for millennia; Assad government was always respectful of other religions. These Christians and their cities received one of the biggest blows during the invasion by ISIS. Result of Russian campaign: secular Syrian state re-affirmed, made stronger and more consolidated. Assad has been re-affirmed as national leader, at least in the interim.
5. Syrian army was able to advance and take back a number of territories, which they were unable to re-take on their own. Now the Syrian government controls about 1/2 of Syria. Just six months ago it was only about 20% of Syrian territory.
7. The trend of Syrian opposition (dubbed by US ‘moderate’) fighting Assad government troops has been decidedly reversed. Truce achieved and holding; moderate opposition has been taken out of the fight mode with Assad and is now working with Assad against ISIS. Moreover, the number of groups and bands in truce with the government continues growing daily. Altogether, there are thousands of such groups and they are all trying to secure a place for themselves in the future of Syria. All this, thanks to the skilled combined effort of the Russian military and diplomacy.
Russia opened a Center for the Syrian dialogue in Moscow, where different Syrian opposition groups can register and speak up.
Russia also put together a list of those opposition groups that want to be taken out of harms ways. If you are on the list, then you agree to the truce and to stop fighting against Assad troops. Everyone on the list agrees to fight only against ISIS. In exchange, they are guaranteed not to be bombed by Russian jets and to be included in Syrian political process.
All the above has been achieved within five months. It’s in stark contrast to the destruction and chaos US/EU and their ME allies achieved through years of inciting wars, hatred and violence.
In fact, Russia reversed the trend of US and allies encouraging ISIS and other terrorist organizations to grow like a tumor. Certainly, it’s too early to talk about ISIS/Al Nusra/Muslim Brotherhood being dealt a deathly blow. We are still very far from a true resolution of the Middle East problems and crises. If you recall, my prediction last year was that the Middle East would suffer from violence and various conflicts for a long time due to many millennial issues that have remained unresolved. Resolution will take a very long time.
But what Russia has shown in Syria is that resolution is possible; that a very discerning and targeted surgical intervention, aiming at stabilizing the country, while isolating and taking out of the equation the destructive forces, can lead to hope of a better future. The smart leaders and countries will heed this and follow the example.
8. In the eyes of various groups in Syria, and in the eyes of the entire Middle East, Russia is now the main peacemaker and the go-to country for all grievances and deals.
A pilgrimage of various Syria opposition groups to Moscow doesn’t cease. Similarly, every week and month there are leaders of various Middle Eastern countries visiting Moscow for negotiations. Russia received leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan UAE, and everyone in between, including those, like Qatar, who just recently tried to undermine Russia, and who were implicated in the Russian passenger plane downing over Sinai, Egypt. Not that Qatar or SA would stop their undermining activities, but at least for now they have to negotiate.
Leaders of the Kurds from Syria, Iraq and Turkey have been visiting Moscow and meeting with Russians. Kurdistan’s first representative office has opened in Moscow.
Incidentally, as described in SYRIA GAME CHANGER, Israeli PM Netanyahu was one of the first to visit Moscow before the start of the Russian Syria incursion in 2015. Back then I said that Israel, with the usual Jewish shrewdness, knew who to ‘call.’ Let’s say that Israel knew ‘the right phone number’ and understood how to position itself before Syria events. This is why Israel was first to sign a Syria cooperation and intel sharing deal with Russia. I said back then that Israel knows where the wind is blowing and is re-orienting itself towards Russia, Eurasia and SCO.
I am sorry to say that many didn’t get the great significance of my prediction about Israel. Some even tried to argue with me, as if because you argue the global outcome will change. Also read ESR6: NEW KHAZARIAN KHAGANATE? for a perspective on the true Israeli spread and future direction (not the prevailing silly and outdated propaganda, which only keeps the masses confused and duped).
All I can say is that, if you really want to know where we are going, you should listen and remember what I say. We are going through a massive Earth Shift in all areas of life on the planet. I am your guide in this tectonic Earth Shift. Those who read my articles and ESRs will be well prepared for the Shift to come.
Or don’t, and don’t – up to you. I can only show the way to the spring – I can’t make anyone drink.
8. As a result of years of USA’s failures, especially compared to Russia’s success, US influence in the Middle East is waning fast. Russian influence is growing just as fast.
Non-ISIS/non-Al Nusra opposition is now much less likely to look to the US and much more likely to go to Russia for advice and direction.
US clout in the Middle East is extremely low, even in the countries fully dependent in them. Saudis consider themselves betrayed by the US and continue giving signals to Russia that they want closer cooperation (frankly, I wouldn’t trust them for a moment, but a situational alliance might be useful). Iraq and Afghanistan continue attempting to ask Russia for assistance in fighting ISIS on their territory, while US continues blocking these requests. Russians signaled they would help Afghanistan and Iraq, if asked formally by their governments. One of the big reasons to help is that terrorists and smugglers from those two could potentially infiltrate Central Asia and south Caucasus, from where they can get into Russia proper through porous ex-Soviet republics’ borders.
The latest on that: Russian military signaled that they have secured the Central Asian borders in Tajikistan through the newly expanded base and that infiltration isn’t possible any more.
9. Russia achieved its goal of securing bases in Syria / on the Mediterranean coast. Russia now has two bases, which will continue being maintained. All this will be secured by diplomatic documents that will hold under international scrutiny regardless of what government comes after Assad.
10. Russia got US to take off the table its demand that ‘Assad must go’ – a MAJOR win for Russia and a major show of US weakness.
11. Syria elections – another achievement. This means that Assad has been legitimized in the eyes of the West and Syrian opposition. They all now have to work with Assad, whether they want it or not.
If Assad is reconfirmed as the national leader by elections, they will have no choice but to recognize him. If he isn’t reconfirmed, then there will be new government, which, unlike Libya destroyed by the US and EU interference, will have to be secular and inclusive, under Russian and international supervision.
12. I wrote about this in SYRIA GAME CHANGER. Federalization of Syria and the Kurds is possible. I consider this a good outcome, if done correctly. Kurds announced they are forming a federation within Syria. At the very minimum, this means they are not trying to secede, further destabilizing the region. This announcement, so far not recognized by Assad or internationally, puts a lot of pressure on Erdogan and Turkey, who are bombing and killing Kurds on their own territory. For the Turkish Kurds now there is an inspiring example in Syria. This weakens Erdogan. I have talked at length in ESR5 and ESR7 about Erdogan, Davutoglu, and the issue of the Kurds.
In ESR5 I said that Syria needs to move to federalization. Russia, the world’s largest federation, can help Syria like no other.
Assad is afraid to recognize Kurdish autonomy as well, fearing this will lead to further destabilization of the country. He is partially right: US/West/Saudi/Qatar/Turkey’s interference in the affairs of decentralized, autonomous regions will be that much easier. But Assad may have no choice. In the end it all depends on how skilled his diplomats and politicians are. Russia will lend a hand in negotiations.
As a matter of fact, it has been recognized by various opposition and pro-government forces that Russia is the one and only power to talk to. As one Assad’s opponent said, ‘now Russia is again seen as the only peacemaker in the region by all forces in Syria.’
13. Withdrawing at the time when Kerry and Lavrov have decided on the framework on Syria negotiations and when the main list of Syrian ‘moderate’ opposition’ groups has been compiled underscores Russia’s commitment to peaceful, diplomatic solution of Syrian conflict.
Since Geneva negotiations between government and opposition began, the withdrawal and cessation of Russian bombings sent all the right kinds of signals to the parties involved: Russian Army has done its job. Now it’s time for Russian diplomacy to do theirs.
Putin reconfirmed this signal when he met on March 14th with both Russian FM Sergey Lavrov and Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu. The message was very strong and unmistakable: the army has done what was needed to stabilize Syria, now let’s pass the baton to our diplomats, who will deepen and solidify this success.
Videos (ENG translation):
Below is a long list of objectives of the Russian Syria campaign that have been achieved in five months. (I challenge you to compare this list of things promised and delivered to what the multi-year US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq have done to those countries; what NATO bombings have done to Libya; what the US/EU 2-year+ interference in Ukraine has turned the country into!)
Important things to remember:
Let’s recall that Russia announced from the start that there will be no ground operation. It was clear that Russia doesn’t want to repeat Soviet and US mistakes in the Middle East.
Also, let’s remember that this withdrawal is partial. This is a gesture designed to send a specific message to all parties involved, and to the global community in general. What this message is – we’ll discuss below.
Russia merely announced the end to the active phase of Syria operations. There are two bases and sufficient number of troops/crews left. Russia still controls the Syrian sky. S-400 systems remain there, which means that any flights over Syria have to be coordinated with Russia.
Additionally, it has been hinted that Russian jets, troops and ships can be returned back within hours, should necessity arise. In fact, Vladimir Putin announced that starting March 22 Russia may re-start operations against those who attempt to break the truce. This remark had a fabulous response. Those groups who thought they could begin fighting with Assad troops again once Russia left, got back to negotiations table.
Russia spent on Syrian operation $450 million. That’s all. This constitutes less than 1 percent of the Russian defence budget.
I don’t have handy the Pentagon or NATO budget numbers, but isn’t it something like their weekly allowance? Incidentally, let’s compare this to how much US spent in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Russian accomplishments in Syria and associated withdrawal reasons:
1. ISIS oil infrastructure – destroyed or weakened; ISIS military and terrorist infrastructure – destroyed or weakened. Multi-billion investments of ISIS/Al Nusra/ Muslim Brotherhood’s sponsors Qatar, Saudis and Turkey – destroyed. ISIS, Turkey, Saudi and Qatar oil – synthetic drug – slave – artifact smuggling ring broken, which means that the financing of terrorist activities has been dealt a major blow.
2. What really goes on in Syria has been exposed for the whole world to see. Before, the Western propaganda had a monopoly on Syria stories, presenting its usual false narrative. Now, with Russian direct footage and access given for the Western press to Russian bases and battle ships patrolling Mediterranean much of the false narrative changed dramatically. Having seen the truth, US and EU became unable to accuse Russia or Assad of various actions they didn’t commit. The Western propaganda ring has been broken and the tide has been reversed.
3. Some of the potential new recruits have been scared away from joining ISIS-Daesh and other terrorist organizations by Russian Syria campaign. The idea that they would be bombed by Russian jets, should they join, stopped many. Therefore, the lives of some of the young, lost people residing on the territory of the Russian Federation, EU and various Muslim counties, have been saved.
Per Russian statistics, about 5,000 Russian citizens joined ISIS, mostly Muslims from Caucasus, Siberia, Volga Tatars and Crimean Tatars. Also thousands joined from Muslim ex-Soviet Central Asia and Azerbaijan. These were recruited through mosques and infiltrated propagandists. The flow of ‘fresh cannon fodder’ has been at least slowed down, if not stopped.
One of pre-announced Russian goals was to prevent the already trained ISIS militants from being able to return back home, which they could do with their Russian passports. The official Russian statistics is that out of 5,000 ISIS militants with Russian passports 2,000 have been killed as a result of Russian raids.
4. Another Russian goal was to keep Syria secular and inclusive of other religions, in other words, prevent Syria from turning into another Muslim fundamentalist state. There are many Christians (both Orthodox and Catholics) that lived in Syria in peace for millennia; Assad government was always respectful of other religions. These Christians and their cities received one of the biggest blows during the invasion by ISIS. Result of Russian campaign: secular Syrian state re-affirmed, made stronger and more consolidated. Assad has been re-affirmed as national leader, at least in the interim.
5. Syrian army was able to advance and take back a number of territories, which they were unable to re-take on their own. Now the Syrian government controls about 1/2 of Syria. Just six months ago it was only about 20% of Syrian territory.
7. The trend of Syrian opposition (dubbed by US ‘moderate’) fighting Assad government troops has been decidedly reversed. Truce achieved and holding; moderate opposition has been taken out of the fight mode with Assad and is now working with Assad against ISIS. Moreover, the number of groups and bands in truce with the government continues growing daily. Altogether, there are thousands of such groups and they are all trying to secure a place for themselves in the future of Syria. All this, thanks to the skilled combined effort of the Russian military and diplomacy.
Russia opened a Center for the Syrian dialogue in Moscow, where different Syrian opposition groups can register and speak up.
Russia also put together a list of those opposition groups that want to be taken out of harms ways. If you are on the list, then you agree to the truce and to stop fighting against Assad troops. Everyone on the list agrees to fight only against ISIS. In exchange, they are guaranteed not to be bombed by Russian jets and to be included in Syrian political process.
All the above has been achieved within five months. It’s in stark contrast to the destruction and chaos US/EU and their ME allies achieved through years of inciting wars, hatred and violence.
In fact, Russia reversed the trend of US and allies encouraging ISIS and other terrorist organizations to grow like a tumor. Certainly, it’s too early to talk about ISIS/Al Nusra/Muslim Brotherhood being dealt a deathly blow. We are still very far from a true resolution of the Middle East problems and crises. If you recall, my prediction last year was that the Middle East would suffer from violence and various conflicts for a long time due to many millennial issues that have remained unresolved. Resolution will take a very long time.
But what Russia has shown in Syria is that resolution is possible; that a very discerning and targeted surgical intervention, aiming at stabilizing the country, while isolating and taking out of the equation the destructive forces, can lead to hope of a better future. The smart leaders and countries will heed this and follow the example.
8. In the eyes of various groups in Syria, and in the eyes of the entire Middle East, Russia is now the main peacemaker and the go-to country for all grievances and deals.
A pilgrimage of various Syria opposition groups to Moscow doesn’t cease. Similarly, every week and month there are leaders of various Middle Eastern countries visiting Moscow for negotiations. Russia received leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan UAE, and everyone in between, including those, like Qatar, who just recently tried to undermine Russia, and who were implicated in the Russian passenger plane downing over Sinai, Egypt. Not that Qatar or SA would stop their undermining activities, but at least for now they have to negotiate.
Leaders of the Kurds from Syria, Iraq and Turkey have been visiting Moscow and meeting with Russians. Kurdistan’s first representative office has opened in Moscow.
Incidentally, as described in SYRIA GAME CHANGER, Israeli PM Netanyahu was one of the first to visit Moscow before the start of the Russian Syria incursion in 2015. Back then I said that Israel, with the usual Jewish shrewdness, knew who to ‘call.’ Let’s say that Israel knew ‘the right phone number’ and understood how to position itself before Syria events. This is why Israel was first to sign a Syria cooperation and intel sharing deal with Russia. I said back then that Israel knows where the wind is blowing and is re-orienting itself towards Russia, Eurasia and SCO.
I am sorry to say that many didn’t get the great significance of my prediction about Israel. Some even tried to argue with me, as if because you argue the global outcome will change. Also read ESR6: NEW KHAZARIAN KHAGANATE? for a perspective on the true Israeli spread and future direction (not the prevailing silly and outdated propaganda, which only keeps the masses confused and duped).
All I can say is that, if you really want to know where we are going, you should listen and remember what I say. We are going through a massive Earth Shift in all areas of life on the planet. I am your guide in this tectonic Earth Shift. Those who read my articles and ESRs will be well prepared for the Shift to come.
Or don’t, and don’t – up to you. I can only show the way to the spring – I can’t make anyone drink.
8. As a result of years of USA’s failures, especially compared to Russia’s success, US influence in the Middle East is waning fast. Russian influence is growing just as fast.
Non-ISIS/non-Al Nusra opposition is now much less likely to look to the US and much more likely to go to Russia for advice and direction.
US clout in the Middle East is extremely low, even in the countries fully dependent in them. Saudis consider themselves betrayed by the US and continue giving signals to Russia that they want closer cooperation (frankly, I wouldn’t trust them for a moment, but a situational alliance might be useful). Iraq and Afghanistan continue attempting to ask Russia for assistance in fighting ISIS on their territory, while US continues blocking these requests. Russians signaled they would help Afghanistan and Iraq, if asked formally by their governments. One of the big reasons to help is that terrorists and smugglers from those two could potentially infiltrate Central Asia and south Caucasus, from where they can get into Russia proper through porous ex-Soviet republics’ borders.
The latest on that: Russian military signaled that they have secured the Central Asian borders in Tajikistan through the newly expanded base and that infiltration isn’t possible any more.
9. Russia achieved its goal of securing bases in Syria / on the Mediterranean coast. Russia now has two bases, which will continue being maintained. All this will be secured by diplomatic documents that will hold under international scrutiny regardless of what government comes after Assad.
10. Russia got US to take off the table its demand that ‘Assad must go’ – a MAJOR win for Russia and a major show of US weakness.
11. Syria elections – another achievement. This means that Assad has been legitimized in the eyes of the West and Syrian opposition. They all now have to work with Assad, whether they want it or not.
If Assad is reconfirmed as the national leader by elections, they will have no choice but to recognize him. If he isn’t reconfirmed, then there will be new government, which, unlike Libya destroyed by the US and EU interference, will have to be secular and inclusive, under Russian and international supervision.
12. I wrote about this in SYRIA GAME CHANGER. Federalization of Syria and the Kurds is possible. I consider this a good outcome, if done correctly. Kurds announced they are forming a federation within Syria. At the very minimum, this means they are not trying to secede, further destabilizing the region. This announcement, so far not recognized by Assad or internationally, puts a lot of pressure on Erdogan and Turkey, who are bombing and killing Kurds on their own territory. For the Turkish Kurds now there is an inspiring example in Syria. This weakens Erdogan. I have talked at length in ESR5 and ESR7 about Erdogan, Davutoglu, and the issue of the Kurds.
In ESR5 I said that Syria needs to move to federalization. Russia, the world’s largest federation, can help Syria like no other.
Assad is afraid to recognize Kurdish autonomy as well, fearing this will lead to further destabilization of the country. He is partially right: US/West/Saudi/Qatar/Turkey’s interference in the affairs of decentralized, autonomous regions will be that much easier. But Assad may have no choice. In the end it all depends on how skilled his diplomats and politicians are. Russia will lend a hand in negotiations.
As a matter of fact, it has been recognized by various opposition and pro-government forces that Russia is the one and only power to talk to. As one Assad’s opponent said, ‘now Russia is again seen as the only peacemaker in the region by all forces in Syria.’
13. Withdrawing at the time when Kerry and Lavrov have decided on the framework on Syria negotiations and when the main list of Syrian ‘moderate’ opposition’ groups has been compiled underscores Russia’s commitment to peaceful, diplomatic solution of Syrian conflict.
Since Geneva negotiations between government and opposition began, the withdrawal and cessation of Russian bombings sent all the right kinds of signals to the parties involved: Russian Army has done its job. Now it’s time for Russian diplomacy to do theirs.
Putin reconfirmed this signal when he met on March 14th with both Russian FM Sergey Lavrov and Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu. The message was very strong and unmistakable: the army has done what was needed to stabilize Syria, now let’s pass the baton to our diplomats, who will deepen and solidify this success.
Videos (ENG translation):
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More videos:
Russia: Troops arriving home from Syria given hero’s welcome
Russia: Troops can be deployed back to Syria ‘in mere hours’ if necessary – Putin
14. Last, but not least, by announcing partial withdrawal, Russia sent a message to Assad. The message is that Assad shouldn’t rest on laurels; that he can’t think that Russia was there to support him personally.
Russia sent a message, understood fully by all political and military groups in Syria and beyond: we won’t always be in Syria to bail out Assad. He needs to find his own stride for reconciliation. We are here to establish pre-conditions for political process by stabilizing the country and allowing the fair and equal voice to the people. What does this kind of message do? It puts the fire under Assad, making him agree to elections and national dialogue. It also restrains honest opposition from further armed clashes with government forces, making them see the light in the end of the tunnel - the light of possible peaceful resolution and political change in the interests of the country.
The Russian Syria withdrawal timing is genius:
All in all, Russia took away from the West and their Middle East vassals the possibility of escalation of anti-Assad rhetoric and, therefore, escalation of Syria conflict, leading to further destabilization of the country and region.
1. UK is now in a difficult position. Its attempt to build a new army and invade Syria through Libya now makes it look like a bully and invader in the eyes of own citizens.
2. Turkey was preparing its own invasion of Syria. Russian withdrawal announcement became a cold shower for Erdogan. Now US/NATO are forced to restrain Turkey from rash actions. In fact, the entire Russian op put a huge harness on Turkey’s ambitions to chop off a chunk of Syria, promised to him by US/Qatar and Saudis in late 2000s. It also dampened Erdogan’s ambition to resurrect Ottoman Khalifate. Read all about that in ESR7: TURKISH CONUNDRUM.
3. This move by Russia also restrains US actions in Syria, together with those of Saudis and Qatar. Now their hands are tied and they can’t continue trying to unseat Assad, otherwise they look like bullies. Of course, to make this happen Lavrov and Russia first made US admit that negotiations were the way to go, remove from the agenda ‘Assad must go’ mantra and compose a list of opposition forces ready to negotiate. Being tied into the negotiations framework makes it impossible for US to start invading Syria willy-nilly.
4. Besides that, Russia ingeniously timed Syria op, negotiations and withdrawal to the US presidential elections year. Obama and democrats desperately need to show some kind of international successes. This is why they suddenly began playing nice with Cuba, sat down with Iran last year and this is why they are ready to negotiate in Syria.
5. Another reason Russia announced partial withdrawal: sand storm season has begun, which makes flights difficult to impossible for a couple of months. Again – good timing.
6. US has recently gone into Syria, while Russia is already out. This again demonstrates that US continues scrambling to catch up to Russia. Read: Why Is Obama Scrambling to Catch Up to Putin? In ESR5 I said that Syria 2015-16 reminds me of WWII and 1944. It was in 1944 that US/UK suddenly saw the light and opened second front against Hitler, but only after they realized that USSR could take Berlin and liberate Europe all by themselves.
As I said, Putin is always several steps ahead. This is especially true after the devious US game in Ukraine.
Let me tell you something: the fact that Russia was not playing devious games in Ukraine was perceived by US and EU as a weakness and an opening to go in. As usual, they are unable to conceive that there are some who don’t play devious games not because they can’t, but because they are above it.
It’s not dangerous, but actually good – not for the US, but for Russia and the rest of the world – that US is stuck on the ground in yet another conflict in the Middle East. US troops are on the ground in Syria – Russian are not; US has already given a commitment they will fight ISIS, after they were shamed by Russia into doing so (as explained in ESR5). Good, let them finally live up to their promises and do something useful for a change!
Meanwhile, Russian reputation and clout in the Middle East is growing, while US is waning. US is playing a humiliating catch-up, while Russia continues leading.
In fact, I think that in part this Russian withdrawal has been timed so to demonstrate how slow and ill-equipped US and EU are for the modern strategic operations. Sort of: ‘see, we’ve accomplished everything we said we would, and are already out, while these dinosaurs are only getting in.’ The world isn’t blind and can see what’s going on.
When US showed to the whole world that it was absolutely unwilling to respect Russian interests, Russia and Putin began showing that in fact they are very capable of playing games, and much better than the West – if they want to.
Finally, here are two other good reasons for the timing of this withdrawal:
7. March 15th was one day before the 2nd anniversary of the Crimean referendum, which returned Crimea to Russia. This was part of the holiday present for March 16-19, the dates when Crimea and Sevastopol were officially accepted as two new subjects of the Russian Federation. Russia is clean and out of any conflicts on foreign soil – was the loud and clear message.
8. Now, being out of Syria, Russia can deal without any distractions with Ukraine and other problems close to home, such as Central Asia and Caucasus. This also includes Turkey and all of Black Sea.
(Read most recent related article: Breaking! Suspicious #Flydubai Boeing-737 Crash in Rostov-on-Don Raises Red Flags.)
Russia: Troops arriving home from Syria given hero’s welcome
Russia: Troops can be deployed back to Syria ‘in mere hours’ if necessary – Putin
14. Last, but not least, by announcing partial withdrawal, Russia sent a message to Assad. The message is that Assad shouldn’t rest on laurels; that he can’t think that Russia was there to support him personally.
Russia sent a message, understood fully by all political and military groups in Syria and beyond: we won’t always be in Syria to bail out Assad. He needs to find his own stride for reconciliation. We are here to establish pre-conditions for political process by stabilizing the country and allowing the fair and equal voice to the people. What does this kind of message do? It puts the fire under Assad, making him agree to elections and national dialogue. It also restrains honest opposition from further armed clashes with government forces, making them see the light in the end of the tunnel - the light of possible peaceful resolution and political change in the interests of the country.
The Russian Syria withdrawal timing is genius:
All in all, Russia took away from the West and their Middle East vassals the possibility of escalation of anti-Assad rhetoric and, therefore, escalation of Syria conflict, leading to further destabilization of the country and region.
1. UK is now in a difficult position. Its attempt to build a new army and invade Syria through Libya now makes it look like a bully and invader in the eyes of own citizens.
2. Turkey was preparing its own invasion of Syria. Russian withdrawal announcement became a cold shower for Erdogan. Now US/NATO are forced to restrain Turkey from rash actions. In fact, the entire Russian op put a huge harness on Turkey’s ambitions to chop off a chunk of Syria, promised to him by US/Qatar and Saudis in late 2000s. It also dampened Erdogan’s ambition to resurrect Ottoman Khalifate. Read all about that in ESR7: TURKISH CONUNDRUM.
3. This move by Russia also restrains US actions in Syria, together with those of Saudis and Qatar. Now their hands are tied and they can’t continue trying to unseat Assad, otherwise they look like bullies. Of course, to make this happen Lavrov and Russia first made US admit that negotiations were the way to go, remove from the agenda ‘Assad must go’ mantra and compose a list of opposition forces ready to negotiate. Being tied into the negotiations framework makes it impossible for US to start invading Syria willy-nilly.
4. Besides that, Russia ingeniously timed Syria op, negotiations and withdrawal to the US presidential elections year. Obama and democrats desperately need to show some kind of international successes. This is why they suddenly began playing nice with Cuba, sat down with Iran last year and this is why they are ready to negotiate in Syria.
5. Another reason Russia announced partial withdrawal: sand storm season has begun, which makes flights difficult to impossible for a couple of months. Again – good timing.
6. US has recently gone into Syria, while Russia is already out. This again demonstrates that US continues scrambling to catch up to Russia. Read: Why Is Obama Scrambling to Catch Up to Putin? In ESR5 I said that Syria 2015-16 reminds me of WWII and 1944. It was in 1944 that US/UK suddenly saw the light and opened second front against Hitler, but only after they realized that USSR could take Berlin and liberate Europe all by themselves.
As I said, Putin is always several steps ahead. This is especially true after the devious US game in Ukraine.
Let me tell you something: the fact that Russia was not playing devious games in Ukraine was perceived by US and EU as a weakness and an opening to go in. As usual, they are unable to conceive that there are some who don’t play devious games not because they can’t, but because they are above it.
It’s not dangerous, but actually good – not for the US, but for Russia and the rest of the world – that US is stuck on the ground in yet another conflict in the Middle East. US troops are on the ground in Syria – Russian are not; US has already given a commitment they will fight ISIS, after they were shamed by Russia into doing so (as explained in ESR5). Good, let them finally live up to their promises and do something useful for a change!
Meanwhile, Russian reputation and clout in the Middle East is growing, while US is waning. US is playing a humiliating catch-up, while Russia continues leading.
In fact, I think that in part this Russian withdrawal has been timed so to demonstrate how slow and ill-equipped US and EU are for the modern strategic operations. Sort of: ‘see, we’ve accomplished everything we said we would, and are already out, while these dinosaurs are only getting in.’ The world isn’t blind and can see what’s going on.
When US showed to the whole world that it was absolutely unwilling to respect Russian interests, Russia and Putin began showing that in fact they are very capable of playing games, and much better than the West – if they want to.
Finally, here are two other good reasons for the timing of this withdrawal:
7. March 15th was one day before the 2nd anniversary of the Crimean referendum, which returned Crimea to Russia. This was part of the holiday present for March 16-19, the dates when Crimea and Sevastopol were officially accepted as two new subjects of the Russian Federation. Russia is clean and out of any conflicts on foreign soil – was the loud and clear message.
8. Now, being out of Syria, Russia can deal without any distractions with Ukraine and other problems close to home, such as Central Asia and Caucasus. This also includes Turkey and all of Black Sea.
(Read most recent related article: Breaking! Suspicious #Flydubai Boeing-737 Crash in Rostov-on-Don Raises Red Flags.)
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This brings us to the upcoming Earth Shift Reports!
This brings us to the upcoming Earth Shift Reports!
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Read the original October 2015
SYRIA GAME CHANGER
What do Russia, US, Iran and Israel really want?
Four weeks ago, when the anniversary 70th UN General Assembly session gathered in New York, with many heads of state speaking, we all thought it was the biggest news of the week. Putin delivered his speech in which he criticized the US for its failed policies and the air of American exceptionalism, while talking about international cooperation in the Middle East and elsewhere in the world.
But turned out it was only the prelude to THE event of that week, and probably of the year. Russia suddenly started air strikes against ISIL/Daesh, Al Qaeda/Jabhat al-Nusra and other armed rebel and terrorist groups in Syria.
While the US, Saudis, Qatar and other vassals were trying to recover from the shock, last week brought us the news that upped the ante a few notches. In addition to the Russian bombings, which accomplished in several days more than US and its 'coalition of the willing' consisting of 62 states achieved in a year, Russia began launching cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea (Russian: 'krilatie raketi').
Huh? Some may say. From what sea?
Surely, for most Westerners, Caspian may as well be on Mars. But in this case I said 'huh?' as well, thinking that maybe the newscast got it wrong and the missiles were in fact launched from the Black Sea. After all, where is Caspian and where is Syria. Besides, cruise missiles launched from ships? Stationed in the middle of a landlocked sea far away from all the action? Is that for real?
But no, they actually got it absolutely right, and then I understood the brilliance of the Russian move.
US was completely unprepared for Russia's resolute actions in Syria. Putin, as usual, played his master chess against USA's checkers. The latest cruise missile attack on ISIS positions by the Russian Caspian Fleet was simply a stroke of genius, which literally caught the US with its pants down and mouth open.
Let's face it - it caught not just USA, but everyone else with their mouths open. Hoaxes and targeted info dumps by CNN and others purporting that four of the 26 Russian missiles shot from the Caspian fell in Iran, failing to reach targets in Syria, didn't fly. Iran said nothing fell on its territory and Pentagon/CIA said they had no such data. Instead, the panic and confusion overcame certain circles in the West, who thought they had Russia pegged.
I said in my previous piece on Syria published on FuturisTrendcast that “US (and NATO) understand only retaliation and the language of force.”
The reality is that these missiles were too effective. In fact, by utilizing the Caspian fleet Russia just revealed a completely new, never seen before Russian defence project. The significance of what happened should not be underestimated. It turns out that Russia can launch cruise missiles from a ship stationed far away from any populated areas, in the middle of the landlocked sea deep inside its territory. These missiles can travel undetected across Iran and Iraq, and still hit targets 2500 miles away with complete precision. Besides, the ships in question are fully mobile and impossible to pinpoint if they are using the advanced REB radio scrambling camouflage technology, which we saw in ESR 4: Alien Technology and New Russian Weapons.
All this basically renders the AMDs in Europe and the entire NATO doctrine completely useless.
Here is another food for thought. Russia didn't have to involve the Caspian Fleet and its new cruise missile program. Strictly speaking, Russian operation is fully covered by its aviation in Syria. There is enough hardware to accomplish all the tasks needed. Why involve the Caspian Fleet and missiles?
Very simple. It was a message. In Alien Technology and New Russian Weapons I said that Russia began showcasing new defense projects and weapons, which until recently were top secret. This is not by accident. This is to warn NATO and US against any ideas to attack Russia, or even to cross paths with Russia in any sector of the world where Russian forces are operating. This includes Syria, but is not limited to it.
One of the things that are being conveyed through this show of strength is this: US/EU are put on notice that NATO expansion to Russia's borders is over. It is also a reminder to more sane of the EU elites, such as Germany, Italy and France: being friends with Russia is much better than being enemies.
But it's also a message to smaller countries on Russia's periphery, who get very audacious under the cover and with encouragement of the US, already licking their lips at some pieces of what is traditionally the Russian World. Pieces of Ukraine (and Moldova too) are one such delicious cake the neighboring Romania, Poland and others are glaring at.
It has to get a lot of neighboring countries thinking. To me, Ukraine junta leadership should really be thinking long and hard. Russia proved yet again something that only the blind or the bought-and-paid-for refused to see.
IF Russia really wanted to interfere in Ukraine, as one Russian general once hinted on another occasion, Russian army would be lunching in Kiev and eating dinner in Lvov, near the western border with the EU.
These are the paraphrased words of General Lebed', spoken in 1992 Pridnestrovie. Romania at that point was hoping to annex Moldova, taking advantage of the confusion that ensued after the break-up of the Soviet Union. The people of Pridnestrovie (Transnistria) refused to abide and seceded, asking to join Russia instead. Moldavian army with the participation and under the direction of Romanian forces began shelling Pridnestrovie, especially Bendery, located the closest to Moldova and the easiest to reach.
Russia sent UN-mandated peacekeepers headed by General Lebed'. Lebed' stopped the shelling and bloodshed by giving Moldova this ultimatum. He said that if shelling didn't stop immediately, 'he would be lunching in the capital of Moldova Kishinev and eating his dinner in the capital of Romania Bucharest.' The shelling stopped and Moldavian/Romanian troops were withdrawn. Since then, Russia has kept its UN-mandated contingent in Pridnestrovie, to avoid any memory lapses on the part of pro-Romanian nationalists.
The problem is that in 22+ years Russia has been trying to be friends with the West. Instead of accepting the hand of friendship, the West responded with breaking all possible and impossible agreements, and NATO continues encroaching on Russia's borders, disregarding Russian interests.
Experience shows that people's memory is indeed very weak. Sometimes, it requires reminders. US and NATO have become so audacious because they listen to reports by their agents, ukro-nazis and Russian pro-western opposition, who need to justify their Western financing. They've been telling US/NATO that Russian army is falling apart, missiles are corroded and Russian tanks and jets are made out of cardboard. In part this is because they think that's what their bosses want to hear, and in part it's because Russian army has done such a super job at keeping its true level of progress secret.
Even the fast success of the Russian army during the 2008 operation in Georgia/S. Ossetia didn't teach them anything. The fact that Russia didn't send army to Donbass and Ukraine after the Kiev junta took power was perceived as weakness. You and I both know what kind of people perceive niceness and peacefulness as weakness. We all met such people in a schoolyard. They are called bullies. Bullies only back off after someone gives them the taste of their own medicine.
In 2014 I had predicted that Russia would never send military to Ukraine, and explained how and why Russia would remold the situation slowly, peacefully and quietly in her favor.
That said, present Ukrainian 'leadership' should be very concerned about the real capability of the Russian army. Or rather, they would, if they were real leaders. But they are mere stooges and paid employees of the US. They do what US State Dept and CIA tell them to do and what the script from Washington prescribes. They are not concerned about their country – they in fact are the demolition crew, there to destroy what's left of poor Ukraine. Recent revelations about Ukraine's impending simultaneous multi-level domestic and foreign debt bankruptcy confirms this. No country in recent history has self-destructed so quickly and so willingly to please their trans-Atlantic bosses.
But Ukraine is yesterday's news, although the saga continues.
My early 2014 prediction that US would lose in Ukraine, followed by slow and reluctant disengagement, as they proceed to wreak havoc in other parts of the world, is coming true. Don't expect a sudden and quick giving up, or even admitting honestly that they are giving up. This is not the American way. They will pretend they are still there, while trying to squeeze as much last minute blood as possible from the dying Ukraine.
The global energy is quickly turning against them. EU is rebelling, ever so slowly and timidly. Japan is conducting negotiations with Russia about signing the long-overdue since the end of WWII peace treaty, over the objections and threats of the US. Even Israel is rebelling.
At home there is scandal after scandal as well. The early front runners for next year's elections in both of the US parties: republicans and democrats, are unconventional at best. For democrats it's ultra-left-wing socialist Sanders and for republicans it's the scandalous Donald Trump. Both sharply criticize US policies at home and abroad – no middle ground here, as radical solutions are proposed. As my readers may know, I do not see a single US politician, except maybe one or two (neither Sanders nor Trump), who really could affect meaningful change. But the fact that both party constituents prefer radicals, denotes rebellion in both parties.
Meanwhile, the announcements made by the US State Dept, Pentagon and White House rival in lunacy the announcements of the drunk Poroshenko.
The Pentagon Chief Ashton Carter, has threatened Russia with Sunni Islamic retaliation for ISIL strikes. Saying this, Carter gives an impression that he just got off the phone with ISIS, Al Qaeda and his Saudi friends, who promised him a nice bloody jihad against Russia. “So, you are confident you can do it?” must have asked Carter his buddies. “We promise you all the intelligence, weapons and training you may need to accomplish it.”
What is this? Desperation, humiliation, hysterics and/or death throws? US is losing clout quickly, and along with it, is it also losing the remaining shreds of common sense and decency?
US has just recognized that its Syrian rebel training program was a total failure. Pentagon is now going through a humiliating scrapping of the Syrian rebel preparation program, after it became known that $500 million were spent to train and arm something like 500 militants, 495 of whom immediately defected to ISIS, passing on all of the American hardware to terrorists. In other words, US spent $500 million to train all of five 'moderate opposition' militants, while the vast majority defected to ISIS. The question is: perhaps this was intended?
Another scandal reveals that US has donated in the past a large fleet of Toyota ATVs to the same non-existent 'moderate opposition.' Now all these Toyota ATVs are being driven by ISIS, Al Qaeda and other terrorist and bandit groups ripping Syria, Libya, Lebanon and Iraq apart. Was this a secret passing of equipment to the extremists under the guise of helping the so-called 'moderate opposition'?
The new scandal revolves around CIA and Pentagon completely missing Russia's moves in Syria. McCain and US Senate are livid. What, CIA never saw the Russian well-planned and smoothly executed bombings coming? CIA also completely missed Russia's launches of ballistic missiles from the battle ships stationed in the Caspian Sea.
What do you expect from the profoundly corrupt, rotting at the core system? They saw the non-existent weapons of mass destruction all over Iraq, where they had never been, but they missed something done right under their noses. Meanwhile, when you think about it, Putin made no secret of Russia's plans in Syria. In August and September Putin had two dozen talks with various heads of state, including Obama, and openly outlined the Russian action plan in his UN speech. I expected Putin, the virtuoso of unexpected checkmates and stunning turnarounds, to pull off something truly unexpected. Russian actions in Syria so far exceeded y expectations.
Russia in Syria: analysis and overview
I've shared my first thoughts once we all found out Russia started air strikes against ISIS in a recent article (see link in the reference section at the bottom of this report). Here are some additional new thoughts on the same subject to complete the picture:
Before we plunge into the situation, I want to draw you attention to one particular trait of the President of Russia that makes him the man everyone on the planet watches with rapt attention, and also the man who can outplay any opponent. No, I am not talking about his multiple Black Belts and his understanding of the Eastern philosophy. And no, I am not talking about his KGB past, although both have undoubtedly played a role in training his mind to win in a subtle, unconventional way.
Astrologically speaking, Vladimir Putin is a Libra, which is the sign of justice, balance, and often times, indecision. Seemingly, it's very hard, if not impossible, to be a world leader having to be born under a sign of indecision (anyone who ever dated a Libra would know how irritating this can be). But in Putin the well-known Libra handicap has turned into a virtue.
Here, I am talking about his uncanny ability to wait till the right moment, choosing that right moment with precision and then, acting with natural confidence. As you know, I have a strong background in Eastern philosophy, being an Asian-trained Feng Shui Master. One of the often repeated Eastern sayings is this: “If you sit by the river bank long enough, you'll watch your enemy's corps float by.”
Putin managed to brilliantly modify this old Eastern principle of going with the flow to successfully serve his country and the world.
Several months ago Putin asked the Duma to approve the new law which made classified any losses of the Russian army. At the time, Ukraine and Western MSM attempted to spin it as if Russia was suffering great losses in Ukraine, from the invisible armies they couldn't find, and that's why they had to keep them secret. But the time passed as Putin patiently waited until the slow European leaders would finally grasp that they needed to push Poroshenko and his cronies towards peace, not war. The peace process in Ukraine was developing as the heads of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine met in Minsk, Berlin and Paris. The talk about the invisible Russian armies in Ukraine dissipated.
And then, the 2015 UNGA started, where Putin made his speech. His speech was an indictment to the US exceptionalism, criticism of the US actions in the Middle East, and a call to action – forming of a coalition to defeat ISIS, which by then spread to several states, created a refugee crisis in the EU and threatened Russian soft underbelly in Central Asia and Caucasus.
We all listened to Putin's speech, agreeing with him, Yes, it's time to curb US ambitions and fire them as 'self-appointed world policeman.' Yes, it's time to do something with ISIS, yes, people and countries should cooperate, rather than fight. Now what?
On the sidelines of the UN Putin and Lavrov had a myriad of meetings with their fellow heads of state and FMs. All that was happening just a few short days ago, while Russia also assumed rotating chairmanship of the UN Security Council. We learned that Russian FM Sergey Lavrov would preside over the session of the Security Council, which at the moment seemed merely ceremonial.
The same day Lavrov was to head the Security Council meeting at the UN, the Russian Duma's Soviet of the Federation Chamber suddenly met at 6am Moscow time. After a debate and Q&A, at 8am, it adopted the resolution unanimously authorizing the President to use Russian armed forces abroad, to bomb ISIS in Syria. All this followed the official request for help from President Assad and the Syrian government.
The bombings started right away, and within several days, by global admission, Russians managed to inflict on ISIS the kind of damage US and allies failed to inflict in one and a half years of pretending to fight it. Reports are coming in that ISIS and other rebel groups are surrendering or defecting by hundreds and that many abandon their positions, passing their arms and hardware to the Syrian government side.
The yelling and screaming from US, Turkey, Qatar and Saudis began immediately. What right did Russia have to bomb the extremists they had been diligently nurturing, training and financing! Can you imagine what kind of money and effort it cost Saudis, Turkey, Kuwait and US to build all those ISIS training centers, arms depots, fortified underground command centers, bases and airstrips. How much hardware they have been diligently passing on to ISIS and Al Qaeda.
Seeing the Russian success, The Iraq PM asked Russians if they would also bomb ISIS on the Iraqi side as well.
Meanwhile, Ukraine's Poroshenko hysterically announced that Russia was out 'to destabilize ISIS.' It is clear the poor thing is worried Russia would next destabilize his own ukro-nazi, US-built regime.
What Russians were doing was in stark contrast to what US has done. US recently bombed for 30 minutes straight the Doctors Without Borders hospital in Afghanistan, killing 22 physicians and scores of patients. This was happening as doctors, nurses and everyone else were frantically calling Pentagon and US command center to tell them they were bombing a civilian structure. They never stopped until the hospital was gone.
Turkey's role in Syria
Turkey's role in this conflict is very unseemly, to say the least. Turkey is supposed to be one of the parties fighting ISIS. However in reality, Turkey trains anti-Assad terrorists in its camps and gives them shelter, it serves as an intermediary in illegal resale of historic treasures ISIS steals from lands they have taken over; Turkey also assist ISIS in illegal sales of oil at the throw away price of $10 per barrel, which allows ISIS to function and expand.
The main reasons for such behavior are as follows:
1. Turkey gets rich of their illegal oil and artifact sale brokering, and they also get paid handsomely by Saudis, Kuwait and US for hosting ISIS training camps.
2. Erdogan has ambitions to re-create the old Ottoman Empire, thus attempting to weaken certain countries that may be in his way, such as Iran and Iran's ally Syria.
3. Erdogan and Assad represent the opposing sides of the Middle Eastern spectrum of Islam. Plus, they hate each other personally. But I wouldn't overestimate the role of the differences in religious approach. This difference is only used as a tool to dupe the sheeple into fighting each other. The big players themselves are thinking in terms of geopolitical gain, not religion, which is only used as a tool and justification. Therefore, it the geopolitical gain that motivates Erdogan.
4. Erdogan and Turkey are afraid of the strengthening and unification of the Kurds, who live on both sides of the Turkey-Syria border. The story of the Kurds is a tough and long one. We are at a point when the Kurds' role can be very important, if not decisive in the region. See more on Kurds below.
5. Erdogan is fighting a war on several fronts. We can say that Erdogan is afraid of Russia's growing influence in the region. He is worried, although I don't know if Erdogan is smart enough to anticipate, or even follow properly, Putin's moves. So far, Putin has outplayed everyone, including Erdogan.
6. For the longest time, Turkey, due to its in-between position and insufficient strength, had to play a role in which it tried to weaken everyone, but at the same time, it had to be nice enough and cooperative enough with everyone. This bizarre balancing act continues even now. At the same time as Turkey is a NATO member, it creates a refugee crisis for the fellow NATO member EU states by sending hundreds of thousands of refugees to Germany, its ally.
While Turkey yells and screams about Russian jets wading into its airspace as they bomb ISIS in Syria, Turkey and Russia also have a robust trade, tourism and visa-free regime.
Once in a while Turkey threatens not to let US ships into the Black Sea, but then always lets them in.
Turkey signed its long-awaited and badly needed Turkish Stream gas deal with Russia and months later backtracked on it.
The latest tantrum is this: Turkey threatened not to let the Russian battle ships OUT of the Black Sea and to block Russia in the Black Sea. But these are normally empty threats, resembling whining for attention by a spoiled kid. Turkey wants attention and preferential treatment from everyone, and to a degree everyone appeases Turkey a bit here and there. While it's good to get a bone or handout once in a while, this type of immature behavior doesn't bring Turkey long-term dividends and certainly doesn't help its credibility and reputation.
The new Coordination anti-ISIS Center has been organized in Baghdad. The members are: Iraq, Iran, Syria and Russia. US was offered to join, but it refused. Who is conspicuously missing? Turkey. It is a country touched very directly by the ISIS/Daesh problem. But it wasn't invited due to its real devious role in the conflict.
Position of the Iraqi government
Seeing how effective the Russian bombings are, the Iraqi government hinted they'd like to ask Russia to bomb ISIL on its territory. This is very interesting, since US troops are still in Iraq.
The latest Russian intel from Iraq says that Americans aren't in control of any territory outside their bases. Basically their goal is to continue controlling these heavily fortified US bases. The rest of the country is disintegrating at the seems – the usual result of US interventions.
The war between Sunni and Shia Muslims rages in the Middle East since 12th century.
According to my sources, the Sunni Saudis 'warned US against bringing to power in Iraq the Shia majority,' which was suppressed under Saddam. However, US had to play the card they came with, the card of the liberator of the Iraqi oppressed. Otherwise, how could they justify being in Iraq, especially after no 'weapons of mass destruction' were found? The only logical end to it would be to bring the previously oppressed majority to power. Once they did, Iran, the Shia stronghold of the Middle East, became much stronger, which automatically weakened the positions of both Saudis and the US.
US behavior with Iraq and Iran is the main reason Saudis are so peeved at their long-time sponsor and protector.
While the Iraqi Shia government continues making steps to get closer to Iran and Russia, the pro-US lobby is still very strong, besides, US troops in Iraq shift the balance of power in US favor.
Because of that I doubt that Iraqi government will officially ask Russia to intervene and bomb ISIS on its territory. I also don't think Russia will want to intervene in Iraq while US troops are still there because this will mean the possibility of accidental brushes with them. Unless US asks Russia to intervene… which is highly unlikely at this stage as it would mean US admitting its weakness.
As I said previously in my PREDICTIONS, there will never be a direct conflict between Russia and US. Russian and US troops will at all cost avoid putting themselves in a situation when there is even a slightest chance of accidentally occupying the same space, be it in the sky, water or on the ground. The potential implication of any accidental collision may unleash global Armageddon. Neither US nor Russia will ever do that, that's why their troops will keep diligently avoiding each other.
That's why all this silly talk by some sensationalistic sources of 'US preparing to attack Russia,' or even sillier, 'Russia preparing to attack US,' is just that – silly.
However, the very fact that Iraqi government voices out a wish that Russians intervened in Iraq and helped out with ISIL, speaks volumes. American troops are still in Iraq, so what are they doing there if Iraq needs Russian help?
The avoidance tactic of the US/NATO and Russian troops brings us to a very important conclusion!
It means that as Russia fortifies her positions in Syria, NATO/ US/ UK/ France, as well undesirable locals, such as Israel, Turkey and Saudis, will be gradually squeezed out. As they are squeezed out, Russia will be able to work more effectively on destroying the ISIL/Al Qaeda infrastructure, Syrian forces will be able to attack and liberate more towns and eventually they will squeeze ISIL out of the country.
The international nature of
ISIL, Al Qaeda and other extremist organizations.
Risks to Russia and the entire region.
However, ISIL and other extremist rebel structures are international in nature. They easily cross borders and they easily disperse, just to congregate later under a different name. You squeeze them out of Syria, they will move to Iraq, Libya, Lebanon, or elsewhere. Lebanon is defending itself against ISIL better than most with the help of the well-organized Hezbollah. The most likely places where ISIL will go are Afghanistan and Iraq. Turkey is also at risk. From there, there is a very short road to Caucasus and Central Asia.
There is already a veritable war flaring up in Tajikistan, especially on the border. The ISIL militants are trying to get into Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Kazakhstan and China are also close by. The always volatile Caucasus is a huge risk as well, especially Azerbaijan, as well as the Russian territories in northern Caucasus. The borders between former Soviet republics are still very porous and cross-border movement is easy and active. From these parts it's very easy to reach Russia. Moreover, Turkey and Russia have visa-free travel, making Turkey also a risk.
Russian border patrol is controlling the Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan borders. Turkmenistan isn't allowing Russian troops and this reclusive dictatorship is so closed up that very little is know about what's happening inside it.
There is another problem: FSB has determined that by now several thousand Muslims from Caucasus, Central Asia, and from among Crimean Tartars, including many Russian citizens, had joined the ranks of ISIL.
The secret propaganda to join is conducted at mosques in these volatile regions. While ISIL continues being strong, there is an attraction for many of the directionless and confused young people to join. There recently was a piece on Russian TV about the parents of a young man in Degestan, Caucasus, going to authorities, asking them to find and bring home their son because they suspected he had gone to ISIL. That young man disappeared overnight, leaving behind a note not to look for him. ISIL needs cannon fodder and unfortunately, the young people are most susceptible.
Russia will have to continue working on this situation even after the Syria problem is solved and bloodshed stops, with the help or regional allies, such as Iran, Iraq, as well as Hezbollah and the Kurds. China and other countries that don't want terrorism coming to their doorstep may want to consider joining the Russian coalition.
The issue of Kurds
Kurds live between several Middle Eastern countries. They have a distinct culture and different customs and they had been fighting for independence for a long time. Still to this day they have no state of their own, being divided between several states. There are significant Kurdish minorities in Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.
Kurds were one of the forces that fought the English aggression and colonization in the 19th century. As retaliation, when UK was dividing the Middle East willy-nilly into quasi-states, it divided them in such a way that Kurds would be torn apart between several countries. Kurds have been trying to reunite ever since. Erdogan is in a state of virtual war against the Kurds who try to cross into Syria in order to help their brothers there to protect their cities against ISIL. Erdogan prevents Kurds from crossing the border, often using lethal weapons, despite Turkey's official position against ISIL.
Turkish Kurds want independence, therefore, Erdogan does everything to prevent them from gaining enough strength to be able to demand that independence.
Meanwhile, Syrian Kurds have said that they will not demand independence and may form an alliance with Assad, if Assad gives them broad autonomy. Russia is pushing Assad in that direction.
The long standing bad blood and feuds are very entangled everywhere in the Middle East. These people are extremely emotional and they have awfully long memory. Forgiveness is not something they do. However, in this specific case, Russia may achieve a breakthrough. If Assad and Kurds form a coalition, it will be that much easier to get rid of ISIL and free up the country. As a federation, Syria will only be stronger and more stable.
Being the largest multi-cultural, multi-lingual and multi-confessional country in the world, Russian Federation knows a thing or two about how to build a successful federative structure that would withstand the test of time.
Syria before the war was also a country where many cultures and multiple confessions lived in peace and mutual respect. Muslims, Christians and Jews lived there for centuries with no problem. The prognosis is decent that it can be restored in time.
New Israel and Russia agreement.
Why Israel likes Russian presence in Syria.
Israeli PM Netanyahu went to Moscow in early September to meet with Putin. Putin assured him that Syria was too busy trying to save the country to consider attacking Israel, which was apparently Israel's concern. The result of the visit was the agreement between Israel and Russia to share intel and not to interfere or collide in any way.
Generally, Syrian skies hove lately become some kind of the Tower of Babel, or a very loud Middle Eastern bazaar. France, US, UK, Turkey, Israel – everyone shows up and starts bombing willy-nilly, wherever they please, without any regard for the sovereignty of the country. I'd really like to now what Australian bombers were doing in Syria?
As I said earlier, Russia being present in Syria means that all these uninvited presences will have to leave, which is what the people of Syria want.
Israel is fine with that. There is an agreement that their planes don't fly in the north, where Russian planes are operating. Israel wanted – and it got it – assurance that Russia would moderate that area and make sure that Iran or Syria doesn't try to retake the disputed Golan Heights. Russian presence and naval base in Syria is an excellent moderating factor to quell any sort of confrontation between Israel and Iran/Syria.
Israel wants Russia as an intermediary between Iran and itself. Israel doesn't talk to Iran, Iran doesn't talk to Israel. Russia talks to both.
This is why Israel really likes having Russia there. It is a stabilizing presence and a certain assurance of peace. Generally, Israel is changing, and it's changing its geopolitical direction. More about that later in this report. Lots more on Israel, how it operates and what it really wants in the upcoming Earth Shift Report Ukraine: New Khazarian Khaganate?
How US, France, Turkey and NATO are being squeezed out of Syria
As Russian aviation takes over the sky over Syria, US/NATO aviation has to leave.
The US narrative is depicted in this map. It sounds like this: 'there are moderate rebels, as opposed to the bad rebels.' These moderate rebels that tear the country apart as much as any, cannot be touched because US has trained and financed them. This narrative is falling apart as it becomes known that US aid, hardware and US trained rebels all end up in the ranks of ISIL and Al Qaeda.
As Russian air force expands its area of operation, US won't be able to fulfill their prime directive in Syria. Here is what they wanted to do going in: unseat Assad and destroy Syria as a state. Some say that the reason they wanted to do it was because Saudis and Qatar told them so.
But the real reason is this: US needs perma-havoc in the Middle East. The theory of the 'managed chaos' implies that the whole world should be in flames, while it's peace and security at home. This allows US military-industrial-financial complex to profit on war and it also means that the US population will thank god every day that their own country isn't like that, thus ensuring the stability of power in the US.
Assad was one of the weak links in the Middle East: Assad is an Alawite (a separate sect within Islam) and most of those who are in power in Syria are Shia, while the country is predominantly Sunni. At least, that's what those who want Assad gone will tell you. But it is clear from all evidence that 80% of Syrians of all confessions support Assad, while ISIL/Al Qaeda are mostly foreign fighters.
But of course, just like in the case of Iraq, Libya or any other place, US doesn't listen to reason. They keep pushing to the fulfillment of something that can't be done despite the obvious failure.
To accomplish Assad's removal, they tried to train the armed thugs they'd labeled 'moderate opposition.' They also threatened Assad forces with bombings if they try to advance on the rebels trained, armed and financed by Saudis, Qatar and US. Obviously, Assad forces were unable to advance and free up cities ISIL and other armed bands are holding hostage.
Needless to say, there is no such thing as moderate opposition in Syria. There are lots of heavily armed militants, who change their fronts, depending on who pays more and where the wind blows.
Now that Russian forces are in Syria, air force of the US, France, Turkey, Israel or anyone else is being squeezed out. Why?
Russia is the only officially invited by the Syrian government power (if we don't count Iran's unofficial involvement), charged with assisting in this conflict. The presence of others in Syria is illegal. Any US plane in Syria skies can be shot down, and no one can do anything about it. Certainly, US wouldn't want that to happen.
US and others not being able to fulfill their threat of bombing Assad forces means that now Syrian army can attack and liberate towns under Islamist control after Russia destroys ISIL/Al Qaeda arms depots and infrastructure. The campaign is going very well, with most of rebel infrastructure destroyed already. By now, Russian air force is mainly helping Assad troops to advance. This means that Russia has control of the sky over northern part of Syria and the Mediterranean coast.
Syrian army and other forces resisting ISIL and other rebel groups on the ground
These are:
Syrian government army loyal to Assad. I hear it's about 70,000 soldiers.
In addition, Iran has quietly sent thousands of its troops and volunteers to help out. Iran can't do it openly yet, but secretly its advisers and volunteer fighters have been working everywhere. Some of the command decisions are also made by Iranians. The interesting thing here is that Russians being present in Syria takes a great deal of decision-making away from Iran. Obviously many of the strategic decisions were not made very well, since Assad army was losing. Now, with Russian air force coverage, Russian satellite intel and strategic planning capability, Syrian army is expected to regain ground quickly.
Hezbollah is another force that participates actively on Assad's side. They are a big help in Syria, plus they are pretty good at defending Lebanon.
Kurds are well organized and defend their lands pretty successfully. Kurds can become another solid ally in this coalition, should an agreement be reached.
The head of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov expressed regret that Russia is not sending ground troops. Too bad 'my eagles' can't also go there to fight ISIL, in order to set things right, said Kadyrov.
But Russia was absolutely explicit that there will be no Russian troops on the ground. In fact the pilot contingent Russia sent to Syria is also very compact. I believe there are about 50 pilots altogether. However, this small force, armed with best and newest weapons and defence systems is exceptionally and smashingly effective.
What territory does Assad control?
The territory Assad presently controls is less than one half of the entire country. However, over 80% of the population resides on that part of the entire Syrian land.
One reason is because it's the most fertile and developed part of Syria, therefore, people traditionally settled there. The rest is scarcely populated desert and semi-desert land. Therefore, it was much easier for the militants to take over lands that were deserted.
Secondly, much of the population from ISIL controlled territories escaped to the Assad controlled lands, where there is a semblance of order and protection. Another part of the population fro the ISIL occupied lands, escaped abroad, to Turkey and Europe. Therefore, ISIL controls deserts, with few locals left. The reports are that they terrorize, enslave and kill local population. They also destroy priceless world heritage artifacts from Palmyra and other ancient cradles of human civilization. What they don't destroy they sell on the black market through Turkey, which is making a killing on these transactions. The areas controlled by ISIL on the Iraq side of the Syria-Iraq border also contain a lot of oil, which helps fill their coffers.
ISIL (aka, ISIS or Daesh) financing: its sources revealed
ISIL has published its revenue sources. According to them it's 1/3 oil revenue and the rest is taxes and confiscations.
As they would say, don't make my granny laugh. So much in this interesting spread is just a plain lie.
Now, let me give you the real spread:
US, Saudis, Qatar pay for lots of things. US has been financing ISIL and Al Qaeda in round-about ways as well (see more on scrapped US training programs and aid programs under investigation, below). The infrastructure, such as ISIL/ Jabhat al-Nusra/Muslim Brotherhood underground command centers and fortifications, arms depots, jihadist training centers and factories that made suicide belts, explosives and weapons were all destroyed by the Russian hits. The building and training in these were all financed by Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
Another thing: oil revenues. Who buys the illegal rebel oil and how? It's dumped on the market for well below market prices, something to the tune of $10 per barrel. Seemingly, what a terrible thing for Saudis and Qatar, not to mention US. Doesn't that undermine global oil prices, doesn't that also undermine the power of OPEC in the very heart of it? Shouldn't they bomb and destroy ISIL oil wells and distribution centers, some of which are located in Turkey?
However, since US bombing campaign started a year ago, not a single oil well was hit. Saudis, Qatar and US are looking the other way, permitting ISIL to continue profiting by oil. Why? Because this is another hidden way of financing them.
As a long shot, the crash in the price of oil may be directed in part against Russia, to help squeeze Russian economy. However, the game is more convoluted than that. Saudis are interested in destroying US fracking/shale oil companies even more.
The main reason for the sudden blindness when it concerns ISIL-controlled oil production and sales is to allow them to continue financing themselves. This underhanded, hidden financing of terrorist structures by US is very old. They did the same with Al Qaeda and Taliban. Instead of giving the money to terrorists they support directly, they make them think they made that money all by themeselves. This system of payments and bribes functions well in the US.
For example a son or daughter of some US senator straight out of college is given a prestigious job with fat salary as repayment for voting correctly on some bill. When Bush Senior was president of the US, George Walker Bush, future US president, but a nobody prone to drinking a the time, had a company that would have long gone bankrupt if not for constant funds infusions from Saudi angel investors. Another payback: after 2014 Kiev coup, US VP Biden's son – truly a nobody – suddenly was named as one of the directors of a Ukrainian gas company controlling gas flow from Russian to the EU.
I seriously doubt ISIL can collect much in taxes from the poorest part of Syria, from where most of the populatiton had fled. It's more plausible that they sell women and children as slaves, however disgusting it sounds. Young women and children are sold into slavery for $80-160 each. And, they make it out like bandits selling priceless historic artifacts on the black market.
Therefore, here are the real sources of their financing:
US, Qatar and Saudi direct and indirect financing
Black market oil production and sales – another hidden way of financing by US, Qatar and Saudis
Artifacts, valuables, gold and precious stones looted from museums and state/private collections – all sold on the black market, usually through Turkey
Women and children taken from their families and sold on the black market.
As Russian aviation takes over the sky over Syria, US/NATO aviation has to leave.
The US narrative is depicted in this map. It sounds like this: 'there are moderate rebels, as opposed to the bad rebels.' These moderate rebels that tear the country apart as much as any, cannot be touched because US has trained and financed them. This narrative is falling apart as it becomes known that US aid, hardware and US trained rebels all end up in the ranks of ISIL and Al Qaeda.
As Russian air force expands its area of operation, US won't be able to fulfill their prime directive in Syria. Here is what they wanted to do going in: unseat Assad and destroy Syria as a state. Some say that the reason they wanted to do it was because Saudis and Qatar told them so.
But the real reason is this: US needs perma-havoc in the Middle East. The theory of the 'managed chaos' implies that the whole world should be in flames, while it's peace and security at home. This allows US military-industrial-financial complex to profit on war and it also means that the US population will thank god every day that their own country isn't like that, thus ensuring the stability of power in the US.
Assad was one of the weak links in the Middle East: Assad is an Alawite (a separate sect within Islam) and most of those who are in power in Syria are Shia, while the country is predominantly Sunni. At least, that's what those who want Assad gone will tell you. But it is clear from all evidence that 80% of Syrians of all confessions support Assad, while ISIL/Al Qaeda are mostly foreign fighters.
But of course, just like in the case of Iraq, Libya or any other place, US doesn't listen to reason. They keep pushing to the fulfillment of something that can't be done despite the obvious failure.
To accomplish Assad's removal, they tried to train the armed thugs they'd labeled 'moderate opposition.' They also threatened Assad forces with bombings if they try to advance on the rebels trained, armed and financed by Saudis, Qatar and US. Obviously, Assad forces were unable to advance and free up cities ISIL and other armed bands are holding hostage.
Needless to say, there is no such thing as moderate opposition in Syria. There are lots of heavily armed militants, who change their fronts, depending on who pays more and where the wind blows.
Now that Russian forces are in Syria, air force of the US, France, Turkey, Israel or anyone else is being squeezed out. Why?
Russia is the only officially invited by the Syrian government power (if we don't count Iran's unofficial involvement), charged with assisting in this conflict. The presence of others in Syria is illegal. Any US plane in Syria skies can be shot down, and no one can do anything about it. Certainly, US wouldn't want that to happen.
US and others not being able to fulfill their threat of bombing Assad forces means that now Syrian army can attack and liberate towns under Islamist control after Russia destroys ISIL/Al Qaeda arms depots and infrastructure. The campaign is going very well, with most of rebel infrastructure destroyed already. By now, Russian air force is mainly helping Assad troops to advance. This means that Russia has control of the sky over northern part of Syria and the Mediterranean coast.
Syrian army and other forces resisting ISIL and other rebel groups on the ground
These are:
Syrian government army loyal to Assad. I hear it's about 70,000 soldiers.
In addition, Iran has quietly sent thousands of its troops and volunteers to help out. Iran can't do it openly yet, but secretly its advisers and volunteer fighters have been working everywhere. Some of the command decisions are also made by Iranians. The interesting thing here is that Russians being present in Syria takes a great deal of decision-making away from Iran. Obviously many of the strategic decisions were not made very well, since Assad army was losing. Now, with Russian air force coverage, Russian satellite intel and strategic planning capability, Syrian army is expected to regain ground quickly.
Hezbollah is another force that participates actively on Assad's side. They are a big help in Syria, plus they are pretty good at defending Lebanon.
Kurds are well organized and defend their lands pretty successfully. Kurds can become another solid ally in this coalition, should an agreement be reached.
The head of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov expressed regret that Russia is not sending ground troops. Too bad 'my eagles' can't also go there to fight ISIL, in order to set things right, said Kadyrov.
But Russia was absolutely explicit that there will be no Russian troops on the ground. In fact the pilot contingent Russia sent to Syria is also very compact. I believe there are about 50 pilots altogether. However, this small force, armed with best and newest weapons and defence systems is exceptionally and smashingly effective.
What territory does Assad control?
The territory Assad presently controls is less than one half of the entire country. However, over 80% of the population resides on that part of the entire Syrian land.
One reason is because it's the most fertile and developed part of Syria, therefore, people traditionally settled there. The rest is scarcely populated desert and semi-desert land. Therefore, it was much easier for the militants to take over lands that were deserted.
Secondly, much of the population from ISIL controlled territories escaped to the Assad controlled lands, where there is a semblance of order and protection. Another part of the population fro the ISIL occupied lands, escaped abroad, to Turkey and Europe. Therefore, ISIL controls deserts, with few locals left. The reports are that they terrorize, enslave and kill local population. They also destroy priceless world heritage artifacts from Palmyra and other ancient cradles of human civilization. What they don't destroy they sell on the black market through Turkey, which is making a killing on these transactions. The areas controlled by ISIL on the Iraq side of the Syria-Iraq border also contain a lot of oil, which helps fill their coffers.
ISIL (aka, ISIS or Daesh) financing: its sources revealed
ISIL has published its revenue sources. According to them it's 1/3 oil revenue and the rest is taxes and confiscations.
As they would say, don't make my granny laugh. So much in this interesting spread is just a plain lie.
Now, let me give you the real spread:
US, Saudis, Qatar pay for lots of things. US has been financing ISIL and Al Qaeda in round-about ways as well (see more on scrapped US training programs and aid programs under investigation, below). The infrastructure, such as ISIL/ Jabhat al-Nusra/Muslim Brotherhood underground command centers and fortifications, arms depots, jihadist training centers and factories that made suicide belts, explosives and weapons were all destroyed by the Russian hits. The building and training in these were all financed by Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
Another thing: oil revenues. Who buys the illegal rebel oil and how? It's dumped on the market for well below market prices, something to the tune of $10 per barrel. Seemingly, what a terrible thing for Saudis and Qatar, not to mention US. Doesn't that undermine global oil prices, doesn't that also undermine the power of OPEC in the very heart of it? Shouldn't they bomb and destroy ISIL oil wells and distribution centers, some of which are located in Turkey?
However, since US bombing campaign started a year ago, not a single oil well was hit. Saudis, Qatar and US are looking the other way, permitting ISIL to continue profiting by oil. Why? Because this is another hidden way of financing them.
As a long shot, the crash in the price of oil may be directed in part against Russia, to help squeeze Russian economy. However, the game is more convoluted than that. Saudis are interested in destroying US fracking/shale oil companies even more.
The main reason for the sudden blindness when it concerns ISIL-controlled oil production and sales is to allow them to continue financing themselves. This underhanded, hidden financing of terrorist structures by US is very old. They did the same with Al Qaeda and Taliban. Instead of giving the money to terrorists they support directly, they make them think they made that money all by themeselves. This system of payments and bribes functions well in the US.
For example a son or daughter of some US senator straight out of college is given a prestigious job with fat salary as repayment for voting correctly on some bill. When Bush Senior was president of the US, George Walker Bush, future US president, but a nobody prone to drinking a the time, had a company that would have long gone bankrupt if not for constant funds infusions from Saudi angel investors. Another payback: after 2014 Kiev coup, US VP Biden's son – truly a nobody – suddenly was named as one of the directors of a Ukrainian gas company controlling gas flow from Russian to the EU.
I seriously doubt ISIL can collect much in taxes from the poorest part of Syria, from where most of the populatiton had fled. It's more plausible that they sell women and children as slaves, however disgusting it sounds. Young women and children are sold into slavery for $80-160 each. And, they make it out like bandits selling priceless historic artifacts on the black market.
Therefore, here are the real sources of their financing:
US, Qatar and Saudi direct and indirect financing
Black market oil production and sales – another hidden way of financing by US, Qatar and Saudis
Artifacts, valuables, gold and precious stones looted from museums and state/private collections – all sold on the black market, usually through Turkey
Women and children taken from their families and sold on the black market.
Russian Tartus Naval Base and the new Russian military doctrine
By her actions in Syria, Russia is announcing that NATO and West's expansion is over. The Syrian base, which Russia had for the longest time, is an important advance post in the Mediterranean. It is the only Russian base in the Mediterranean and one of the very few bases Russia has abroad. Compare that to something like 1000 bases US/NATO have all over the world.
This base is not a full scale navy base. It's more like a small stop-over with skeleton crew. However, Assad gave his ok to the construction of the full scale modern Russian Navy base. It has already begun. Syrians are simply ecstatic to host a Russian base since it ensures that no US, French, Turkish or Israeli planes or ships would dare attack them.
Russia has announced a new military doctrine. Part of it is what I've already talked about: once in while Russia slightly opens the veil of secrecy on some of her cutting edge electronic defence and military projects and designs in order to send a warning not to get any ideas to trample on Russia.
We talked about the cutting edge super-secret electronic warfare designs in ALIEN TECHNOLOGY &NEW RUSSIAN WEAPONS.
The creation of Russia's Sixth Fleet has also been announced. It is being created to counter the US dominance at seas and to curb NATO/US appetites worldwide.
Russia excels when it comes to submarines and northern fleet, including icebreakers. The emphasis was on that. However, now the building of large navy ships is being stepped up.
Russia is returning to the Middle East. It is understood in Russia that this will continue being the most unsettled and volatile region of the world for the foreseeable future. I said in one of my predictive articles on FT that the Middle east will continue being volatile for quite some time. This has to do with the old, unresolved karma, thousands of entangled old feuds and bad blood between religious factions, and the terrible heritage of the old colonial past. The region won't calm down until all these issues are resolved and consciousness level in the region rises high enough to demand cooperation instead of confrontation. This will take a while.
Under the circumstances, Russia cannot afford to look the other way. If Russia doesn't firmly assert her interests now, the cancer of Islamic fundamentalism and terror will spread to her soft underbelly in Caucasus and Central Asia, to threaten Russian heartland. Russia is re-asserting her presence in the Middle East, and not only in Syria. Russian naval bases may be built in other countries as well – more on that below.
All this signals a sharp shift of the Russian military and foreign policy doctrine from purely defensive -- what I would call, based on victimized survival -- to a calmly assertive and proactive stance.
Iran Gambit
Many have been saying that Russia, by assisting US to make peace with/ take sanctions off Iran is harming own interests. Not at all. This is a very profound and sophisticated long game of which Putin is a master.
The result will be the loss of the US influence in the Middle East, while Russian influence there would strengthen. Everything we know so far suggests that Russia is the only power that can in fact bring peace and resolution of conflict in the Middle East. As Syrians would say, Russia will be able to do what US and West cannot, or do not want, to do.
While Russia assists Iran in re-acquiring its oil markets and taking off the stifling sanctions, the good will is created. Meanwhile, this good will is used in Syria, where Iran's influence is by far the strongest. In fact, till now, Iran was in charge of Syrian army, including ground operations and strategic planning.
By taking away the strategic planning and air operations from Iran and outdated Syria air force, Russia ensures very quietly that Iran's influence in Syria is limited, while Russian influence is growing.
This is in turn great news for Israel, who shares a border and has a disputed Golan Heights territory with Syria. Iran called more than once for Israel's destruction under different slogans. Iran has been using the old Golan Heights dispute to maintain a conflict between Syria and Israel. Except, right now Syrians have their hands full and they don't want a conflict with Israel to aggravate their life further.
Israel is just as afraid of ISIL, Muslim Brotherhood and AL Qaeda as Syria. Syria and Israel could have been allies in this fight, if not for Iran. Therefore, the Russian moderating presence is good for all parties involved. It curbs Iran's appetites, and creates a bridge between Israel and Syria, making Israel at least neutral to the Syrian fight.
Israel is pissed at the US for making up with Iran, whom Israel considers existential enemy No. 1 due to Iran's calls to destroy Israel. The Russian takeover of strategic operations in Syria is very positive for Israel because now they are guaranteed that Iranian army won't attack them from Syrian territory. This is why Israeli PM Netanyahu visited Moscow, agreeing with Putin on intel sharing and coordination of operations in the area.
By her actions in Syria, Russia is announcing that NATO and West's expansion is over. The Syrian base, which Russia had for the longest time, is an important advance post in the Mediterranean. It is the only Russian base in the Mediterranean and one of the very few bases Russia has abroad. Compare that to something like 1000 bases US/NATO have all over the world.
This base is not a full scale navy base. It's more like a small stop-over with skeleton crew. However, Assad gave his ok to the construction of the full scale modern Russian Navy base. It has already begun. Syrians are simply ecstatic to host a Russian base since it ensures that no US, French, Turkish or Israeli planes or ships would dare attack them.
Russia has announced a new military doctrine. Part of it is what I've already talked about: once in while Russia slightly opens the veil of secrecy on some of her cutting edge electronic defence and military projects and designs in order to send a warning not to get any ideas to trample on Russia.
We talked about the cutting edge super-secret electronic warfare designs in ALIEN TECHNOLOGY &NEW RUSSIAN WEAPONS.
The creation of Russia's Sixth Fleet has also been announced. It is being created to counter the US dominance at seas and to curb NATO/US appetites worldwide.
Russia excels when it comes to submarines and northern fleet, including icebreakers. The emphasis was on that. However, now the building of large navy ships is being stepped up.
Russia is returning to the Middle East. It is understood in Russia that this will continue being the most unsettled and volatile region of the world for the foreseeable future. I said in one of my predictive articles on FT that the Middle east will continue being volatile for quite some time. This has to do with the old, unresolved karma, thousands of entangled old feuds and bad blood between religious factions, and the terrible heritage of the old colonial past. The region won't calm down until all these issues are resolved and consciousness level in the region rises high enough to demand cooperation instead of confrontation. This will take a while.
Under the circumstances, Russia cannot afford to look the other way. If Russia doesn't firmly assert her interests now, the cancer of Islamic fundamentalism and terror will spread to her soft underbelly in Caucasus and Central Asia, to threaten Russian heartland. Russia is re-asserting her presence in the Middle East, and not only in Syria. Russian naval bases may be built in other countries as well – more on that below.
All this signals a sharp shift of the Russian military and foreign policy doctrine from purely defensive -- what I would call, based on victimized survival -- to a calmly assertive and proactive stance.
Iran Gambit
Many have been saying that Russia, by assisting US to make peace with/ take sanctions off Iran is harming own interests. Not at all. This is a very profound and sophisticated long game of which Putin is a master.
The result will be the loss of the US influence in the Middle East, while Russian influence there would strengthen. Everything we know so far suggests that Russia is the only power that can in fact bring peace and resolution of conflict in the Middle East. As Syrians would say, Russia will be able to do what US and West cannot, or do not want, to do.
While Russia assists Iran in re-acquiring its oil markets and taking off the stifling sanctions, the good will is created. Meanwhile, this good will is used in Syria, where Iran's influence is by far the strongest. In fact, till now, Iran was in charge of Syrian army, including ground operations and strategic planning.
By taking away the strategic planning and air operations from Iran and outdated Syria air force, Russia ensures very quietly that Iran's influence in Syria is limited, while Russian influence is growing.
This is in turn great news for Israel, who shares a border and has a disputed Golan Heights territory with Syria. Iran called more than once for Israel's destruction under different slogans. Iran has been using the old Golan Heights dispute to maintain a conflict between Syria and Israel. Except, right now Syrians have their hands full and they don't want a conflict with Israel to aggravate their life further.
Israel is just as afraid of ISIL, Muslim Brotherhood and AL Qaeda as Syria. Syria and Israel could have been allies in this fight, if not for Iran. Therefore, the Russian moderating presence is good for all parties involved. It curbs Iran's appetites, and creates a bridge between Israel and Syria, making Israel at least neutral to the Syrian fight.
Israel is pissed at the US for making up with Iran, whom Israel considers existential enemy No. 1 due to Iran's calls to destroy Israel. The Russian takeover of strategic operations in Syria is very positive for Israel because now they are guaranteed that Iranian army won't attack them from Syrian territory. This is why Israeli PM Netanyahu visited Moscow, agreeing with Putin on intel sharing and coordination of operations in the area.
Israel's role in Syria.
Russia and Israel relations – past, present and future prospects.
You may be surprised!
In the upcoming new Earth Shift Report UKRAINE: NEW KHAZARIAN KHAGANATE? we will talk about the turnaround of Israel and about the fact that not all Jews are the same. In fact, the warming up of relations between Israel and Russia is due in large part to the Russian-speaking Jews on both sides, who have been working on this for some time. It is estimated that 20-25% of the population of Israel is Russian-speaking. Granted, some are simply rabid enemies of Russia, some are criminals and former oligarchs, hiding from Russian justice. But plenty are normal people, and some are actively and openly for closer relations with Russia.
As Israel gets more and more disenchanted with the USA's policies, they lean closer to Russia. It's in the air, and Israelis always have had exceptionally good noses for where the wind blows – that's how they survived and thrived for centuries in various lands. Israelis, as many of us, see: the energy is shifting to the East. Israelis are making sure they won't miss the train.
PREDICTIONS:
The future of the Middle East, multi-polar world and Russia's role
Something similar is happening in the heads of Saudis, who are also losing faith in their trans-Atlantic allies. This is why the month of September became a virtual pilgrimage period for various heads of the Middle East states to Moscow.
Now we can say with confidence that Jordanian, Egyptian, Saudi, Palestinian, Syrian and Israeli leaders were there for coordination and negotiations on their future place in the new Middle East spread.
I don't like to use this word, but let's just say: the new boss is in.
Another great attraction of the strengthening of the Russian position in Syria and the Middle East is that Russia will balance out and pacify various contradictory forces, something US – the self-- appointed world policeman and sole superpower -- was unable and unwilling to do.
Russia is playing her global balancing role, as usual. These are the first steps for the creation of the future multi-polar world in this part of the world.
Only by balancing the contradictory interests of the powers in the region, a more equitable and future-oriented structure can be created. This will take time and it won't be an easy going. It's starting to happen with Putin, Lavrov and Russia's guidance, slowly but surely.
What will also come up on the agenda is the future FEDERALIZATION of this part of the world. Many states in the Middle East have been created as a result of Western colonization, or they are remnants of the defunct empires. They had been cut up and sewn together without any regard for the natural ethnic borders and habitats of different cultures. For example, the Kurds and what they call Kurdistan, have been ripped and stuck into several different states. The Kurdish rights will have to be honored.
There was a time when US needed Kurds' loyalty. Americans had promised Kurds anything they wanted, including their own state. Of course, none of these promises had materialized. Today, Kurds don't trust US any more.
In general, although Kurds have been silenced and disregarded in many instances, they are very well organized, with their own army, territories and media. They work across borders, but unlike ISIS, their goal isn't to take over anyone's territories: they want to reunite territories on which they historically lived for centuries, and probably millennia.
Apart from Kurds, in many Middle Eastern countries the interests of alternative Muslim groups aren't honored. Say, if the power belongs to Shia, then Sunnis living in the same country feel slighted. If Sunnis rule, the Shia blame them for being suppressed by the rival branch of Islam.
Meanwhile, the many Christians in the area get disregarded, and sometimes prosecuted, by all.
The Western style aggressive 'democratization' of the Middle East by the US and EU has catastrophically failed. Federalization, where interests of various cultures, religions and ethnicities are fully respected is the only answer!
The largest earthly federation (100 ethnicities and multiple religions) in existence -- the Russian Federation -- is THE expert on this issue. Russia can help Syria and other countries in the region to create successful structures that will withstand the test of time.
The turnaround of Israel is ongoing.
The disastrous policies of the US in the Middle East push Israelis closer to Russia.
I have left this interesting and controversial piece for last.
Below is my translation of the two interviews with Yakov Kedmi, ex-head of the Israeli security services Nativ. Kedmi was born in the USSR and became a dissident, who eventually emigrated to Israel. For a long time he was involved in intel gathering and spying on the USSR. For that he was persona non-grata in the USSR and Russia. I believe, this status is only being lifted now after many petitions. Kedmi is very popular and he talks a lot about geopolitics, Russia, US, Middle East, etc. Many consider him very factual, and he know a lot about the hidden motives and real military capabilities of various countries. This is where he truly shines.
Although, as a highly accurate futurist and predictor myself, I have to say that his predictions are usually off. While certainly he can't predict (some people just can't, and some can) – he is very good at analyzing. He speaks his mind freely and because of that he's been know to rub Israeli authorities the wrong way. I find that I agree with the vast majority of what he says.
Kedmi has an interesting angle on most things. His interviews are in Russian and he represents the point of view of both the Russian-speaking Israelis and certain thinking parts of the Israeli society and its intelligence community. This point of view is gaining momentum. The interviews below will provide a lot of insight into how Israel is changing and which way it's looking.
Note Kedmi's stance regarding Russia, US, NATO and Saudis!
Yakov Kedmi interviews:
Interview to the Russian-speaking Israeli program Iton TV, September 2015.
Original in Russian: US and Russia - Interests in the Middle EastЯков Кедми. АМЕРИКА и РОССИЯ ИНТЕРЕС на БЛИЖНЕМ ВОСТОКЕ 15 09 2015
Original in Russian: US and Russia - Interests in the Middle EastЯков Кедми. АМЕРИКА и РОССИЯ ИНТЕРЕС на БЛИЖНЕМ ВОСТОКЕ 15 09 2015
Translation:
Kedmi: Russia never made a secret of her presence in Syria and support with weapons and other means of the Assad regime. Why are we suddenly talking about it? What, yesterday this wasn't the case, or the day before? It was like this before.
Host: Yes, it was like this during Soviet times too.
Kedmi: No, that was different. I'll say it again until you get it, Russia isn't the USSR.
Russia has Tartus naval base in Syria. This is Russia's only base in the Mediterranean. Russia wants to fortify it to counter USA's Sixth Fleet.
Host, worried: What do you mean fortify, how?
Kedmi: Russia's looking for other bases apart from Syria. They have received permission to use the Cyprus ports, they are also talking to Egypt about Alexandria. Don't know about Algiers, but they also may set it up there.
Russia only has one base in Tartus, while US and NATO have many such bases in the area. Russians are fortifying the Tartus base. There are presently 40 marines there who protect the base. If Russian leadership decides that there is a risk of Islamic militants getting close to the base, it's natural that they will fortify it to protect itself.
Second problem Russia has is this: Russia is trying to get US and others to sit down and talk to Assad, while US doesn't want to. Meanwhile the refugee situation is worsening.
Host: Russia is ready to accept Syrian refugees?
Kedmi (getting angry): Why should Russia accept refugees? Whoever destroyed Syria should accept them. Russia has nothing to do with that. Those who destroyed Iraq, let them take care of refugees, those who destroyed Libya, let them deal with refugees. What does Russia have to do with it?
Let Saudis, who have money to burn accept refugees. Why did they get their paws into Syria? Now deal with refugees. Or take Qatar, a super-democracy (Host, sarcastically: oh, yeah). Also swimming in money, who financed rebels and therefore helped destroy the homes of these people. That's who should accept refugees. Russia has nothing to do with it.
Russia supports Assad since he is in power. It's not as important to Russia what the name of the future Syrian president will be. But for now it's Assad and he is supported by 80% of the population that lives on the territory he controls. He doesn't control as much territory, but the majority of the population is with him. Russia will be helping him with money, instructors and hardware.
If US can send instructors to train Banderovtsi (LR: aka, ukro-nazis in Ukraine), Russia can send own instructors to train Syrian army. And there are a lot more US 'instructors' in Lvov (LR: Ukraine), plus from UK and EU, than Russians in Syria.
Who is helping Assad on the ground: 6,000 Hezbollah militias, who are fighting on Iran orders and Iran will send troops from its 'revolutionary guard' to Syria any moment, if it hasn't already. I don't know if there will be hundreds or thousands sent, but Iran won't let the Assad regime be taken down at this time.
Host: They are also Shia.
Kedmi: Not because they are Shia but because Syria always supported Iran and Iran Syria. Russia isn't going to fight for Assad. Russia will defend her own interests. But Russia will help Assad and Syria, why not.
The volume of Russian ships and Russian cargo being unloaded in Syria has drastically increased. It's unknown what they are unloading. I don't know what's in those cargoes. Same story with planes, both military and non-military. Weapons and hardware are being brought in that Russia believes will be needed, but we don't know exactly what it is.
Host: As an Israeli, I am interested in this bit. It was said that Russia didn't supply S-300s to Syria, despite Assad's pleas because it was the request of the Israeli government not to. But since the money was paid, instead of S-300 Russia is supplying all kinds of other hardware. At the same time, there are rumors that Israel bombed certain areas of Syria specifically because there were S-300s there.
(LR: S-300 is such a powerful long-range mobile missile system that it can destabilize the balance of power in the region; Israel considers it a substantial threat to its territory. The S-300 (NATO reporting name SA-10 Grumble) is a series of initially Soviet and later Russian long range surface-to-air missile systems produced by NPO Almaz, based on the initial S-300P version. The S-300 system was developed to defend against aircraft and cruise missiles. Subsequent variations were developed to intercept ballistic missiles.)
Kedmi: those who say this are either lying or don't know what they are talking about. Russia never supplied S-300 to Syria based on our plea. It was a while ago and Russia promised not to supply S-300 to the Middle East to avoid changing the balance of power. S-300 to Iran can be supplied. Iran is 1000 kilometers away. The kind of S-300 models they are discussing have a range of 100-125 kilometers. So it's inconsequential for us.
But any S-300 is Syria can neutralize military airfields in Israel, and not only military but also civilian. With this kind of distance aircraft can be shot down on takeoff. That's why Russia doesn't supply them to Syria. If Russia did decide to supply S-300, they would need at least a year to train personnel, and that didn't happen yet. No intel on Syrians going to Russia to train. There is also no Russian personnel in Syria, if they decided to operate S-300 themselves. None of this is taking place.
If Russia decides they want to beef up the anti-aircraft defence in Syria, they can do it without S-300. If they do, any such system will threaten those who bomb Syria: Americans and especially Turks.
Host: I hear that Russians are building military cities in Syria for their servicemen. What does it mean?
Kedmi: Where? Syria is big. If it's around Tartus, this is because of the base. If they are fortifying the base, then they need more personnel. They obviously will service the base themselves, it won't be locals.
But consider how many US soldiers live around their foreign bases. Take the largest US naval base in Napoli, Italy (LR: Naples). There is a huge number of soldiers and service personnel, all Americans. Italians don't work there.
So, if Russian presence at the base increases, so will the number of personnel. They have to live somewhere, go to school, etc. I don't think this increase is related to the conflict and civil war in Syria.
Interview to the Crimean/Donbass news agency News Front, October 2015.
Яков Кедми о ситуации в Сирии Kedmi about Syrian situation
Яков Кедми о ситуации в Сирии Kedmi about Syrian situation
Яков Кедми о ситуации в Сирии from Lada Ray on Vimeo.
Translation:
Kedmi: You said it right in the beginning, all these countries are simply slaves and vassals of the US (LR: he means EU, Turkey, Saudis and Qatar). None of them was planning to seriously fight ISIL or Al Qaeda. It's impossible to use the word 'a fight' in relation to that schizophrenia with which US is pretending to deal with ISIL. It's embarrassing. The provocation targeting Assad started 5 years ago. These countries decided that they needed to get rid of him, but the scheme simply fell through. Now US doesn't know how to get out of it. Now they are just trying to save face. Saudis and Qatar are still trying to return to status quo, but it won't work.
What are they so worked up about? The Russian interference will cause a critical shift in the next several weeks. As a result, Syrian forces, together with Hezbollah and probably Iranian troops may soon start advancing. Russian air force soon will start supporting Syrian ground operations (LR: this is already happening). Then, all this may lead to a quick liberation of the entire northern part of Syria, up to the Turkish border.
In this northern part are located the main rebels supported by Saudis: Syrian Al Qaeda, aka, Jabhat al-Nusra, and over ten different organizations of the Muslim Brotherhood, supported by both Al Qaeda and Saudis. They are the main target. ISIL is located a little more to the east.
Therefore, if successful, this strategy will quickly lead to taking control of the Syrian-Turkish border, which will lead to the cutting off of supplies for the rebels, such as money, weapons and soldiers. This will result in their quick demise. Rebels located to the south don't have any other ways of obtaining supplies.
The fact that Russian aviation is there will result in Turkish, American and others not being able to fly in the same area. Therefore, the American threat that they would bomb Syrian army if they attempt to deal with rebels US had trained, won't work any more.
If Assad takes Russian advice and makes a deal with Kurds, then Kurds can become a strong ally. This will lead to Turks not being able to bomb Kurds any more as the Russian air force will protect them as well. This will change the whole situation drastically. This will put an end to plans to bury Assad and to suppress the Kurdish problem.
Second stage will be to finish off the rest of the opposition that will continue weakening; later, they will also be able to finish off ISIL proper, which is located between Palmyra and Baghdad.
If Russian air force performs as expected, then there is hope that ISIL will be finished in both Syria and Iraq with the help of Iran and Iraq armies.
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