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'EARTH SHIFT REPORT 13: 'ERDOGAN'S WAR'
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'EARTH SHIFT REPORT 13: 'ERDOGAN'S WAR'
IS COPYRIGHT 8/8/16-8/14/16 LADA RAY, AUTHOR. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
NO copying/ reposting/ reprinting! NO direct links to this report page!
Please bookmark this page or save its url so you can return to this report in the future!
EARTH SHIFT REPORT 13
erdogan's war
imrortant UPDATE of 8/14/16!
Explosive Consequences of the 8/9/16 Erdogan-Putin Meeting in St. Petersburg
& the earth shifting changes it foretells!
Is now posted! Read it as ADDENDUM at the bottom of this report!
INTRO
Image: St. Petersburg, Russia
On August 9, 2016 Turkish President Erdogan arrives to St. Petersburg, Russia, to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time since Turkish Airforce shot down Russian Su24 jet in late fall 2015. Russia retaliated with massive economic sanctions and across the board Turkish bans. But recently, Erdogan sent a surprise letter of apology to Putin. Following that, Russia warned Erdogan of the planned Turkish military coup, thus saving his presidency and his life.
Amid continuing war in Syria spearheaded by Russian Airforce, Turkey had served as safe haven and training grounds for ISIS terrorists. Turkey has benefited greatly from the black market ISIS oil sales, drug, human and artifact trafficking through its territory. At the same time, Turkish NATO bases had for decades been one of the strongest concentrations of US military power stationed abroad, and directed primarily against Russia, as well as helping to control the Middle East.
The EU refugee crisis, orchestated by the US and Turkey weakened the EU and made the population and politicians alike question the validity of open borders and neoliberal policies. Angela Merkel lost much of her former clout by welcoming a million plus refugees without any necessary checks of their legitimacy and association with ISIS. After it became clear that neither Germany nor EU were prepared to cope with such influx, she offered Turkey a 6 bln euro bribe to keep refugees away from EU shores. To bribe Erdogan, Merkel also allowed the prosecution of a comedian who wrote a mocking poem about Turkish leader, thus going against the core European principle of freedom of speech. Merkel's actions turned into a complete fiasco. In protest, German Bundestag finally decided to recognize Turkish slaughter of millions of Armenians in early 20th century as genocide (something many other countries, including Russia, have done years ago).
In response, Erdogan banned German MPs from visiting German troops at a Turkish NATO base, therefore creating a rift within NATO. Simultaneously, Erdogan threatened to expel US troops from its bases, while allowing Russians to use them. A serious conflict began between Turkey and US. No matter how much US tries to downplay it, Turkey's growing rift with US and NATO is apparent.
What do all these perplexing and contradictory events mean for the very survival of NATO?
What does all this mean for Turkey and the Middle East?
Are US and NATO about to lose Turkey as their key ally?
Why did Putin warn Erdogan of the upcoming coup and how did Russians know about it?
Why did Turkish military coup fail?
Was it a false flag or a real coup gone wrong and who is truly behind it?
Erdogan's purges: what's really going on?
Will USA extradite Fethullah Gülen to keep its bases in Turkey?
Will Turkey welcome Russian jets on NATO bases?
What is behind Erdogan's stunning turnaround and letter of apology to Russia, and what is the future of Russia-Turkey relations?
Should Erdogan's apology and visit be considered Russia's major win?
Is Turkish Stream back on the agenda?
Does this turnaround signal a shift in the balance of power in the Mediterranean/Black Sea region and the Middle East?
What does it mean for the future of the US Empire?
EARTH SHIFT AT WORK:
End of NATO & shakeup of entire Western system?
Does Erdogan's turnaround signal the strengthening of Russia & of the Earth Shift?
On August 9, 2016 Turkish President Erdogan arrives to St. Petersburg, Russia, to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time since Turkish Airforce shot down Russian Su24 jet in late fall 2015. Russia retaliated with massive economic sanctions and across the board Turkish bans. But recently, Erdogan sent a surprise letter of apology to Putin. Following that, Russia warned Erdogan of the planned Turkish military coup, thus saving his presidency and his life.
Amid continuing war in Syria spearheaded by Russian Airforce, Turkey had served as safe haven and training grounds for ISIS terrorists. Turkey has benefited greatly from the black market ISIS oil sales, drug, human and artifact trafficking through its territory. At the same time, Turkish NATO bases had for decades been one of the strongest concentrations of US military power stationed abroad, and directed primarily against Russia, as well as helping to control the Middle East.
The EU refugee crisis, orchestated by the US and Turkey weakened the EU and made the population and politicians alike question the validity of open borders and neoliberal policies. Angela Merkel lost much of her former clout by welcoming a million plus refugees without any necessary checks of their legitimacy and association with ISIS. After it became clear that neither Germany nor EU were prepared to cope with such influx, she offered Turkey a 6 bln euro bribe to keep refugees away from EU shores. To bribe Erdogan, Merkel also allowed the prosecution of a comedian who wrote a mocking poem about Turkish leader, thus going against the core European principle of freedom of speech. Merkel's actions turned into a complete fiasco. In protest, German Bundestag finally decided to recognize Turkish slaughter of millions of Armenians in early 20th century as genocide (something many other countries, including Russia, have done years ago).
In response, Erdogan banned German MPs from visiting German troops at a Turkish NATO base, therefore creating a rift within NATO. Simultaneously, Erdogan threatened to expel US troops from its bases, while allowing Russians to use them. A serious conflict began between Turkey and US. No matter how much US tries to downplay it, Turkey's growing rift with US and NATO is apparent.
What do all these perplexing and contradictory events mean for the very survival of NATO?
What does all this mean for Turkey and the Middle East?
Are US and NATO about to lose Turkey as their key ally?
Why did Putin warn Erdogan of the upcoming coup and how did Russians know about it?
Why did Turkish military coup fail?
Was it a false flag or a real coup gone wrong and who is truly behind it?
Erdogan's purges: what's really going on?
Will USA extradite Fethullah Gülen to keep its bases in Turkey?
Will Turkey welcome Russian jets on NATO bases?
What is behind Erdogan's stunning turnaround and letter of apology to Russia, and what is the future of Russia-Turkey relations?
Should Erdogan's apology and visit be considered Russia's major win?
Is Turkish Stream back on the agenda?
Does this turnaround signal a shift in the balance of power in the Mediterranean/Black Sea region and the Middle East?
What does it mean for the future of the US Empire?
EARTH SHIFT AT WORK:
End of NATO & shakeup of entire Western system?
Does Erdogan's turnaround signal the strengthening of Russia & of the Earth Shift?
New Eurasian map 2014 (Crimea part of Russia)
Why Eurasia must be the main focus of the Earth Shift
The golden triangle: Russia - India - China: RIC
Rio Olympics/ Brazil fiascos, and the future of the BRICS
Turkey's key role and the value of Iran & Egypt
Rio Olympics/ Brazil fiascos, and the future of the BRICS
Turkey's key role and the value of Iran & Egypt
Before we get into the very essence of the report, a few notes that put a different global perspective on things. On August 5, 2016 Rio Olympics began in Brazil.
In FREE LADA RAY REPORT: End of Olympics? Plot to Remove Russia from #RioOlympics I explained why I was boycotting the Rio Games. However, yesterday I decided to quickly glance through a brief clip on YouTube which showed empty seats at the Opening Ceremony. As I did, I wondered which world leaders attended the event. I haven't watched, but I know that neither Vladimir Putin, nor any other Russian officials, were in attendance. Neither was ex-president Lula da Silva, who secured these Olympics for Brazil, nor Dilma Rousseff. Something is telling me many other BRICS and S. American leaders were also conspicuously missing.
But Brazil and Russia are both members of the BRICS, so why would Putin miss the ceremony of a close ally? Usually allies, like close friends, try to support each other. This is a protest against the injustice against Russian athletes done by WADA, USADA, IAAF and IOC. Dilma's ousting also played its role. And this is why I'd said that Rio Olympics were used to put a rift between Russia and Brazil, and within the BRICS as a whole. The BRICS are dangerous for the NWO and US-dominated world order. This is one of the very few alliances that can be instrumental in changing this order to the new, more fair and balanced, multipolar world.
Many people asked me about the future of the BRICS. As pointed out in Brazil Color Revolution: Corruption, Dilma, Lula, Zika, Rio Olympics and BRICS. Lada Ray Report and Predictions, Brazil turned out to be the most vulnerable brick of the BRICS. It began to crumble after the very first significant attack. The ousting of Dilma Rouseff was planned in such a way that it would impact the Olympics and put an additional rift within the BRICS. Through Dilma's impeachment, Brazil's pro-US forces came to power, siding with the US and distancing from China and Russia. As usual, US went in with offers of bribes in the form of state loans for fledgling economy, militarized training and equipment for Brazil's police and military, as well as various luxury perks for the elites (you know, kids sent to Harvard, lavish vacations, etc).
Without Brazil, BRICS makes a lot less sense, having been masterminded as a global alliance spanning all main continents. Without Brazil the BRICS may quickly turn into RICS and then RIC. Without question, US will try to tear away S. Africa next, and then India - unless they are stopped on time. Regardless of whether they'll succeed, and whether by some miracle Dilma doesn't get indicted (sorry to say, she will - they won't let her go now that they got her!) I can confidently tell you that the BRICS as we knew them have weakened and that they will not be able to play fully the role originally intended for them, namely to help rebalance the world away from the dying US-centric model.
The Brazil episode demonstrated what I predicted in my 2014-2015 articles and reports, culminating in my Brazil Color Revolution report: the mainstay of the monumental Earth Shift we are experiencing has to be EURASIA. The main three countries that will be instrumental in making it happen will be Russia, India and China: RIC.
In addition, there are two or three other countries within the Eurasian monolith, which will help out. First of all, it's Iran. There could potentially be certain help transpiring from Egypt (while on African continent, it's Muslim and technically a part of the Middle East; therefore, it has clout over Eurasian developments). Incidentally, this is why Egypt, and its good relationship with Russia, have been targeted.
However, there is one other player, whose potential is overlooked by both analysts and lay people, and this player is Turkey. Turkey was created by the UK and France out of the remnants of the Ottoman Empire in the 1920s, and it was created specifically as a big stick against Russia. Using a more colorful language, as a thorn in Russia's soft underbelly.
Turkey admirably fulfilled this role as a long-term member of NATO and site of US/NATO bases. In the '60s Turkey almost became the first match to ignite nuclear World War III: the Cuban Missile Crisis was USSR's response to USA's attempt to put nukes in Turkey. Once US removed its missiles, so did Russia. That was the true sequence of events - not how they are portrayed by the US.
Turkey's geopolitical value is very well understood by those in the US, who are responsible for making things happen. When Erdogan began asserting a certain degree of sovereignty, things began spiraling out of control immediately. As soon as Putin began making deals with Erdogan in 2014-15, the escalation of Syrian conflict began, Erdogan and Turkey were tied down in Syria with lucrative ISIS oil deals and militant training (paid for by Qatar and Saudis), and the Kurdish conflicts escalated. None of these things occurred of their own accord or by accident!
As a result of various co-conspiring events Russia was forced to intervene in Syria and to expose Turkey as an obvious helper of ISIS. This was necessary to put a rift between Russia and Turkey, ruining their flourishing relationship. Once the emotional component of distrust was created, someone pulled the trigger that downed Russian Su24, subsequently killing Russian pilot. It was an extremely well executed attack, where real masterminds were impossible to locate underneath layers of ruse. In my original report of November 11, 2015 I indicated I was confident the order to shoot down Russian jet was given by the US, and perhaps, 'the trigger was pulled by an American, as well.' After the failed Turkish coup we can say without a shadow of a doubt that the order was given by the US.
Report link: Explosive Consequences of Turkey Downing Russian Su-24 Jet in Syria – Complete Analysis and Predictions.
This brings us directly to the interesting timing of Erdogan's visit: August 9. Why now?
For a brief moment we have to return to the Olympics. 2008 Beijing Olympics were overshadowed by Georgia's attack on S. Ossetia, forcing Russia to intervene. This was done in the hopes of causing a rift between Russia and China, in addition to the rift between Georgia and Russia. During 2014 Sochi Winter Games, US/EU executed Ukraine coup, causing a rift between Ukraine and Russia, as well as between EU/Germany and Russia. Read about the Striking Geopolitical Parallels: Georgian War – Beijing2008 and Ukraine – Sochi2014.
With Dilma's ousting and Rio Russian team's ban, the target is also obvious: weaken, and if possible, disband the BRICS as the prized NWO alternative project of Russia and China. US actions in all three Olympics I've mentioned were crude and obvious: they worked through wars, coups and scandals.
Russian counter-move is quiet and a lot more elegant: Putin is simply meeting with Erdogan in St. Petersburg. But notice, it happens during Rio Olympics, when US/West are supposed to celebrate their victory over the BRICS and Russia! This will certainly spoil the celebration.
What's even more important is what will happen during the Putin-Erdogan talks. I can tell you that what will happen will create an ever-widening crack within NATO. Without Turkey's cooperation, NATO is a snake without venomous teeth: would love to bite, but can't. Once NATO begins to weaken, it's only the matter of time until it crumbles (I'd previously written that I give NATO a few years at most). Most importantly, once NATO weakens sufficiently, the US grip on Europe will go next, and after that, it's EU's turn. Pro-soveregnty parties and independence movements will rise all over Western, Southern and Central Europe. With that, Germany's grip on its neighbors will weaken. What will be left of the EU? Not much, unless, as I said in ESR12: The Future of the EU, it learns to reform itself. However, I wouldn't hold my breath for that.
Let's call it a new, elegant Putin's counter-move, which will lead to great changes. Or shall we call it karma for past misdeeds? All this is part of the spectacular EARTH SHIFT, unfolding before our very eyes!
Much has happened and much will continue to happen. For Lada Ray's latest secret intel, analytics and predictions read ESR13: ERDOGAN'S WAR.
In FREE LADA RAY REPORT: End of Olympics? Plot to Remove Russia from #RioOlympics I explained why I was boycotting the Rio Games. However, yesterday I decided to quickly glance through a brief clip on YouTube which showed empty seats at the Opening Ceremony. As I did, I wondered which world leaders attended the event. I haven't watched, but I know that neither Vladimir Putin, nor any other Russian officials, were in attendance. Neither was ex-president Lula da Silva, who secured these Olympics for Brazil, nor Dilma Rousseff. Something is telling me many other BRICS and S. American leaders were also conspicuously missing.
But Brazil and Russia are both members of the BRICS, so why would Putin miss the ceremony of a close ally? Usually allies, like close friends, try to support each other. This is a protest against the injustice against Russian athletes done by WADA, USADA, IAAF and IOC. Dilma's ousting also played its role. And this is why I'd said that Rio Olympics were used to put a rift between Russia and Brazil, and within the BRICS as a whole. The BRICS are dangerous for the NWO and US-dominated world order. This is one of the very few alliances that can be instrumental in changing this order to the new, more fair and balanced, multipolar world.
Many people asked me about the future of the BRICS. As pointed out in Brazil Color Revolution: Corruption, Dilma, Lula, Zika, Rio Olympics and BRICS. Lada Ray Report and Predictions, Brazil turned out to be the most vulnerable brick of the BRICS. It began to crumble after the very first significant attack. The ousting of Dilma Rouseff was planned in such a way that it would impact the Olympics and put an additional rift within the BRICS. Through Dilma's impeachment, Brazil's pro-US forces came to power, siding with the US and distancing from China and Russia. As usual, US went in with offers of bribes in the form of state loans for fledgling economy, militarized training and equipment for Brazil's police and military, as well as various luxury perks for the elites (you know, kids sent to Harvard, lavish vacations, etc).
Without Brazil, BRICS makes a lot less sense, having been masterminded as a global alliance spanning all main continents. Without Brazil the BRICS may quickly turn into RICS and then RIC. Without question, US will try to tear away S. Africa next, and then India - unless they are stopped on time. Regardless of whether they'll succeed, and whether by some miracle Dilma doesn't get indicted (sorry to say, she will - they won't let her go now that they got her!) I can confidently tell you that the BRICS as we knew them have weakened and that they will not be able to play fully the role originally intended for them, namely to help rebalance the world away from the dying US-centric model.
The Brazil episode demonstrated what I predicted in my 2014-2015 articles and reports, culminating in my Brazil Color Revolution report: the mainstay of the monumental Earth Shift we are experiencing has to be EURASIA. The main three countries that will be instrumental in making it happen will be Russia, India and China: RIC.
In addition, there are two or three other countries within the Eurasian monolith, which will help out. First of all, it's Iran. There could potentially be certain help transpiring from Egypt (while on African continent, it's Muslim and technically a part of the Middle East; therefore, it has clout over Eurasian developments). Incidentally, this is why Egypt, and its good relationship with Russia, have been targeted.
However, there is one other player, whose potential is overlooked by both analysts and lay people, and this player is Turkey. Turkey was created by the UK and France out of the remnants of the Ottoman Empire in the 1920s, and it was created specifically as a big stick against Russia. Using a more colorful language, as a thorn in Russia's soft underbelly.
Turkey admirably fulfilled this role as a long-term member of NATO and site of US/NATO bases. In the '60s Turkey almost became the first match to ignite nuclear World War III: the Cuban Missile Crisis was USSR's response to USA's attempt to put nukes in Turkey. Once US removed its missiles, so did Russia. That was the true sequence of events - not how they are portrayed by the US.
Turkey's geopolitical value is very well understood by those in the US, who are responsible for making things happen. When Erdogan began asserting a certain degree of sovereignty, things began spiraling out of control immediately. As soon as Putin began making deals with Erdogan in 2014-15, the escalation of Syrian conflict began, Erdogan and Turkey were tied down in Syria with lucrative ISIS oil deals and militant training (paid for by Qatar and Saudis), and the Kurdish conflicts escalated. None of these things occurred of their own accord or by accident!
As a result of various co-conspiring events Russia was forced to intervene in Syria and to expose Turkey as an obvious helper of ISIS. This was necessary to put a rift between Russia and Turkey, ruining their flourishing relationship. Once the emotional component of distrust was created, someone pulled the trigger that downed Russian Su24, subsequently killing Russian pilot. It was an extremely well executed attack, where real masterminds were impossible to locate underneath layers of ruse. In my original report of November 11, 2015 I indicated I was confident the order to shoot down Russian jet was given by the US, and perhaps, 'the trigger was pulled by an American, as well.' After the failed Turkish coup we can say without a shadow of a doubt that the order was given by the US.
Report link: Explosive Consequences of Turkey Downing Russian Su-24 Jet in Syria – Complete Analysis and Predictions.
This brings us directly to the interesting timing of Erdogan's visit: August 9. Why now?
For a brief moment we have to return to the Olympics. 2008 Beijing Olympics were overshadowed by Georgia's attack on S. Ossetia, forcing Russia to intervene. This was done in the hopes of causing a rift between Russia and China, in addition to the rift between Georgia and Russia. During 2014 Sochi Winter Games, US/EU executed Ukraine coup, causing a rift between Ukraine and Russia, as well as between EU/Germany and Russia. Read about the Striking Geopolitical Parallels: Georgian War – Beijing2008 and Ukraine – Sochi2014.
With Dilma's ousting and Rio Russian team's ban, the target is also obvious: weaken, and if possible, disband the BRICS as the prized NWO alternative project of Russia and China. US actions in all three Olympics I've mentioned were crude and obvious: they worked through wars, coups and scandals.
Russian counter-move is quiet and a lot more elegant: Putin is simply meeting with Erdogan in St. Petersburg. But notice, it happens during Rio Olympics, when US/West are supposed to celebrate their victory over the BRICS and Russia! This will certainly spoil the celebration.
What's even more important is what will happen during the Putin-Erdogan talks. I can tell you that what will happen will create an ever-widening crack within NATO. Without Turkey's cooperation, NATO is a snake without venomous teeth: would love to bite, but can't. Once NATO begins to weaken, it's only the matter of time until it crumbles (I'd previously written that I give NATO a few years at most). Most importantly, once NATO weakens sufficiently, the US grip on Europe will go next, and after that, it's EU's turn. Pro-soveregnty parties and independence movements will rise all over Western, Southern and Central Europe. With that, Germany's grip on its neighbors will weaken. What will be left of the EU? Not much, unless, as I said in ESR12: The Future of the EU, it learns to reform itself. However, I wouldn't hold my breath for that.
Let's call it a new, elegant Putin's counter-move, which will lead to great changes. Or shall we call it karma for past misdeeds? All this is part of the spectacular EARTH SHIFT, unfolding before our very eyes!
Much has happened and much will continue to happen. For Lada Ray's latest secret intel, analytics and predictions read ESR13: ERDOGAN'S WAR.
Maps: Ottoman Empire 1580 vs. Turkey 2015
ERDOGAN'S WAR
Historic sequence of events: Russia, Turkey, EU, NATO and Russian gas
Russia vs. Turkey: centuries of conflict
For centuries prior, Russia and Turkey were rivals. In the past five or so centuries, Russian Empire conducted between 10 and 13 (estimates vary) wars with then Ottoman Empire - by some estimates the largest number of wars with any single county; by others, there were more armed conflicts only with Poland. Russia liberated from the Ottoman yoke the majority of the peoples of Eastern and Central Europe, entire Caucasus and parts of Central Asia.
During the 20th century and the period of the USSR, Turkey was considered an enemy due to its territory being full of US and NATO bases, with missiles targeting Russian Black Sea shore. I was a witness to that when I grew up in Odessa. The tall border patrol towers dotted the lovely landscape of Odessa's beaches and shoreline vegetation; being at the beach after midnight was strongly discouraged. Periodically we heard whispers of NATO spies being caught in Odessa.
After USSR: New Russia - Turkey partnership
After the USSR collapse and as Yeltsin came into power, the situation mellowed out enough that a different kind of relationship blossomed between the so close, yet so distant, neighbors. Starting in the turbulent '90s, Turkey became one of Russia's largest trade partners and a preferred summer vacation hot spot. As Soviet industry and agriculture collapsed, something had to take its place. Therefore, Russia experienced a flood of agricultural and industrial goods from Europe, taking over Russian market. In many areas the cheaper, and therefore, more competitive, Turkish goods won large market share and preferential treatment. These were various fruits, vegetables and certain cheap clothing and consumer goods. Turkish construction firms became dominant on Russian construction market, having built major new buildings in Moscow and elsewhere. The biggest prize, which sustained Turkish economy for years, was Russian tourism. Due to abundant sun and beaches, short flights, inexpensive, compared to Europe, all-inclusive trips, Russians flocked to Turkey. Russian tourism was beginning to surpass German tourism to Turkey for No.1 spot.
By estimates, EU is Turkey's largest economic partner, accounting for 65% of its trade. But it was Russia that was the cherry on the cake. In other words, Turkey lived really well due to Russian trade, constructions and tourism. We can say with great confidence that Turkey would have been in a much worse economic shape throughout 1990s - 2014, if not for Russian contribution to its economy.
In 2014 EU and US imposed anti-Russian sanctions. At the same time US, with the help of the marionette Bulgarian government successfully stopped Russian South Stream project. Bulgaria abruptly refused to host the lucrative Russian gas pipeline through its territory, the best way for the Russian gas to reach Southern and Central Europe, while bypassing Ukraine. As a consequence, Russia announced the permanent scrapping of South Stream.
Why South Stream was started and how it was scrapped
The project, along with its sister pipeline Nord Stream, was born out of sheer necessity. In the beginning to mid-2000s it became clear that the oligarchic clan that took over Ukraine was using the European pipeline built by the USSR and running through its territory in order to blackmail both Russia and EU. Neither Russia nor major EU economies - most importantly, German economy - could afford disruptions due to the highway-bandid behavior of Ukraine. Russia proposed two streams to bypass Ukraine in order to alleviate pressure on both EU and Russian economies. Along with Russia, Germany became the founding member of Nord Stream, with very lucrative distribution rights for Europe's northern and western side. Due to Germany's clout and pull, Nord Stream 1 was pushed through in record time, despite staggering resistance by US Trojan Horses: Poland, Sweden, Norway and the Baltics. However, as Nord Stream was vital to the German economy, the resistance was resolutely dealt with by all means possible, and US could do nothing about it.
At this time, the preparations for Nord Stream 2 are underway, and the pipeline will be built quickly enough, despite the usual frantic blocking activity by Poland. No surprise there: Poland, in addition to being a US patsy, is extremely jealous and afraid of its two much more successful neighbors: Russia and Germany.
Another reason Nord Stream could go through was that the pipeline was laid out directly from Russia to Germany via the bottom of Baltic Sea. Not so with South Stream, which had to go through third countries in order to reach its final destination. This weakness caused its downfall. Bulgaria, historically and culturally considered very close to Russia, with generally very pro-Russian population, was given South Stream transit deal. But Bulgaria happens to have a puppet government, with no sovereignty at all. All it took was for 'the scary' US senator McCain to show up in Sofia in 2014 amid general attacks on Russia and anti-Russian sanctions, and Bulgaria chickened out of South Stream midway. Russia had no choice but to recognize the defeat and scrap it.
This caused huge disappointment in multiple European countries who already invested in South Stream, eagerly awaiting direct, cheap Russian gas for their economies. These countries include: Italy, Austria - two of the founding members of South Stream consortium, plus most of the Balkans (Serbia, Montenegro, Slovenia, etc.) and Hungary.
Meanwhile, Russia already invested anywhere between $3 and $5 bln into South Stream surveys, pipes and initial construction on Russian territory. This money had to be recouped, plus a new solution for Russian gas deliveries to Southern Europe had to be found.
How Turkish Stream replaced South Stream
The Russian assumptions were as follows: Turkey never joined Western sanctions against Russia; Turkey was one of Russia's top trading partners; Russian tourism and real estate money was responsible for a great chunk of Turkish prosperity; Erdogan was making overtures towards Putin and Russia for more business; Turkey was perceived as needing Russian gas badly and being in debt to Russia for investments and favors. (Incidentally, all correct assumptions, proven true later, as a result of Russian anti-Turkey sanctions 2015-2016 - more on that below).
In such environment, it was logical for Russia to switch its attentions to the new project, which became known as Turkish Stream. Most of investment would be recouped, all initial surveys and construction could still be used. Turkey would get its eagerly awaited and much needed cheap Russian gas and hefty transit and distribution fees. From the border between Turkey and Greece, Russian gas could be distributed by land or sea anywhere, including well outside the EU. Within the EU, Greece would become a new gas hub. On the other side of the Turkish border, Greece - with its new pro-Russian, anti-EU and anti-US Syriza government - was happily awaiting the much needed EU transit cut in the midst of its crisis-ridden economic bust.
How Turkey shot down Russian Su24
While everyone was letting out sighs of relief and counting future profits, Syria escalation began. And then the unthinkable happened: Turkey, a member of NATO, in cold blood shot down Russian Su24 jet and killed its pilot.
This put a stop to Turkish Stream. How is that for a coincidence? If you observe world events and geopolitical theory and practice as closely as yours truly, you know: there are NO coincidences in global chess game. Everything and anything is pre-planned. All you have to do is follow... No, not the money, because as I have written since 2014: in our day and age money and economy take back seat to geopolitics and global interests of major players. Forget 'follow the money.' This is an outdated term that many repeat without understanding fully what it means and when and why it came about. The new slogan should be: 'follow the hidden interests of several major global players.'
I wrote previously that there only four (4) real global players. Out of that number only USA and Russia are fully sovereign geopolitically and militarily, although both have certain pressures economically, which is unavoidable in our globalized economy. The other two players, China and EU, have weaknesses and dependencies they can't overcome, making them secondary players, capable of more of a regional influence. In addition, they both play a certain second fiddle (aka, helper) to the two main players globally.
As you may know, I (unlike all those other so-called 'analysts') always maintained that the halt of Turkish Stream was temporary and that the project remained fully viable. Regardless, the delay was certainly painful.
In order to pull the complete picture together, let's answer this question: Just why is US so desperate to stop Russian gas projects to EU?
Once answered, this question will explain why it was necessary to shoot down Russian Su24 jet in 2015; why it was paramount to get Turkey and Russia hating each other; why Germany and Russia must be kept as enemies; why Ukraine was needed as a sacrificial lamb; and why Russia needed to be vilified at all cost.
These are main and interconnected reasons:
USA had to prevent at all cost the getting together of the strongest economies: German and Russian. If Germany and Russia were allowed to get together in a meaningful economic partnership, it would signal the much needed for the rebalancing of the world re-unification of Eurasia.
To paraphrase, EU and Russia together would create what Putin proposed in mid-2000s: a true Eurasian Union 'from Lisbon to Vladivostok.' This would have also opened a direct route to China through Russia, thus creating an unheard of cooperation among most of the significant world's countries.
Ultimately, it signified the end of predatory US Empire and US capitalism, based on petrodollar. Or as the US/Polish/NWO ideologue Zbignev Bzezinski said: US must prevent at all cost the merger between German technology and Russian resources.
Therefore, Ukraine's violent fascist coup, Syrian escalation, anti-Russian sanctions, followed by rift between EU/Germany and Russia, sabotage of Russian pipeline projects, the sudden out of character behavior of Turkey - and much more - all this is explained by this logic of events. What US really fears is not the fact that Russia will sell more gas to Europe and that both Russian and EU economies will benefit as a result. Not at all! Economic benefit an competitiveness of its rivals is the least of USA's problems.
What US really fears is that Russia and Europe will be able to end the long-standing artificial separation of Europe and Asia, that the people's amnesia will dissipate and they'll remember what I've been saying all along: Eurasia is one single continent, artificially separated by dark forces of human ignorance, fear and greed.
They fear that Russia - The Great Balancer - will be able to pull off the ultimate re-balancing of the world and that people will graduate to the new reality of sovereignty, harmony and cooperation, shaking off the present matrix of wars, oppression and separation. US is afraid that as a result of such tectonic EARTH SHIFT, its empire, built on the archaic principle of divide and conquer, will have to die.
For centuries prior, Russia and Turkey were rivals. In the past five or so centuries, Russian Empire conducted between 10 and 13 (estimates vary) wars with then Ottoman Empire - by some estimates the largest number of wars with any single county; by others, there were more armed conflicts only with Poland. Russia liberated from the Ottoman yoke the majority of the peoples of Eastern and Central Europe, entire Caucasus and parts of Central Asia.
During the 20th century and the period of the USSR, Turkey was considered an enemy due to its territory being full of US and NATO bases, with missiles targeting Russian Black Sea shore. I was a witness to that when I grew up in Odessa. The tall border patrol towers dotted the lovely landscape of Odessa's beaches and shoreline vegetation; being at the beach after midnight was strongly discouraged. Periodically we heard whispers of NATO spies being caught in Odessa.
After USSR: New Russia - Turkey partnership
After the USSR collapse and as Yeltsin came into power, the situation mellowed out enough that a different kind of relationship blossomed between the so close, yet so distant, neighbors. Starting in the turbulent '90s, Turkey became one of Russia's largest trade partners and a preferred summer vacation hot spot. As Soviet industry and agriculture collapsed, something had to take its place. Therefore, Russia experienced a flood of agricultural and industrial goods from Europe, taking over Russian market. In many areas the cheaper, and therefore, more competitive, Turkish goods won large market share and preferential treatment. These were various fruits, vegetables and certain cheap clothing and consumer goods. Turkish construction firms became dominant on Russian construction market, having built major new buildings in Moscow and elsewhere. The biggest prize, which sustained Turkish economy for years, was Russian tourism. Due to abundant sun and beaches, short flights, inexpensive, compared to Europe, all-inclusive trips, Russians flocked to Turkey. Russian tourism was beginning to surpass German tourism to Turkey for No.1 spot.
By estimates, EU is Turkey's largest economic partner, accounting for 65% of its trade. But it was Russia that was the cherry on the cake. In other words, Turkey lived really well due to Russian trade, constructions and tourism. We can say with great confidence that Turkey would have been in a much worse economic shape throughout 1990s - 2014, if not for Russian contribution to its economy.
In 2014 EU and US imposed anti-Russian sanctions. At the same time US, with the help of the marionette Bulgarian government successfully stopped Russian South Stream project. Bulgaria abruptly refused to host the lucrative Russian gas pipeline through its territory, the best way for the Russian gas to reach Southern and Central Europe, while bypassing Ukraine. As a consequence, Russia announced the permanent scrapping of South Stream.
Why South Stream was started and how it was scrapped
The project, along with its sister pipeline Nord Stream, was born out of sheer necessity. In the beginning to mid-2000s it became clear that the oligarchic clan that took over Ukraine was using the European pipeline built by the USSR and running through its territory in order to blackmail both Russia and EU. Neither Russia nor major EU economies - most importantly, German economy - could afford disruptions due to the highway-bandid behavior of Ukraine. Russia proposed two streams to bypass Ukraine in order to alleviate pressure on both EU and Russian economies. Along with Russia, Germany became the founding member of Nord Stream, with very lucrative distribution rights for Europe's northern and western side. Due to Germany's clout and pull, Nord Stream 1 was pushed through in record time, despite staggering resistance by US Trojan Horses: Poland, Sweden, Norway and the Baltics. However, as Nord Stream was vital to the German economy, the resistance was resolutely dealt with by all means possible, and US could do nothing about it.
At this time, the preparations for Nord Stream 2 are underway, and the pipeline will be built quickly enough, despite the usual frantic blocking activity by Poland. No surprise there: Poland, in addition to being a US patsy, is extremely jealous and afraid of its two much more successful neighbors: Russia and Germany.
Another reason Nord Stream could go through was that the pipeline was laid out directly from Russia to Germany via the bottom of Baltic Sea. Not so with South Stream, which had to go through third countries in order to reach its final destination. This weakness caused its downfall. Bulgaria, historically and culturally considered very close to Russia, with generally very pro-Russian population, was given South Stream transit deal. But Bulgaria happens to have a puppet government, with no sovereignty at all. All it took was for 'the scary' US senator McCain to show up in Sofia in 2014 amid general attacks on Russia and anti-Russian sanctions, and Bulgaria chickened out of South Stream midway. Russia had no choice but to recognize the defeat and scrap it.
This caused huge disappointment in multiple European countries who already invested in South Stream, eagerly awaiting direct, cheap Russian gas for their economies. These countries include: Italy, Austria - two of the founding members of South Stream consortium, plus most of the Balkans (Serbia, Montenegro, Slovenia, etc.) and Hungary.
Meanwhile, Russia already invested anywhere between $3 and $5 bln into South Stream surveys, pipes and initial construction on Russian territory. This money had to be recouped, plus a new solution for Russian gas deliveries to Southern Europe had to be found.
How Turkish Stream replaced South Stream
The Russian assumptions were as follows: Turkey never joined Western sanctions against Russia; Turkey was one of Russia's top trading partners; Russian tourism and real estate money was responsible for a great chunk of Turkish prosperity; Erdogan was making overtures towards Putin and Russia for more business; Turkey was perceived as needing Russian gas badly and being in debt to Russia for investments and favors. (Incidentally, all correct assumptions, proven true later, as a result of Russian anti-Turkey sanctions 2015-2016 - more on that below).
In such environment, it was logical for Russia to switch its attentions to the new project, which became known as Turkish Stream. Most of investment would be recouped, all initial surveys and construction could still be used. Turkey would get its eagerly awaited and much needed cheap Russian gas and hefty transit and distribution fees. From the border between Turkey and Greece, Russian gas could be distributed by land or sea anywhere, including well outside the EU. Within the EU, Greece would become a new gas hub. On the other side of the Turkish border, Greece - with its new pro-Russian, anti-EU and anti-US Syriza government - was happily awaiting the much needed EU transit cut in the midst of its crisis-ridden economic bust.
How Turkey shot down Russian Su24
While everyone was letting out sighs of relief and counting future profits, Syria escalation began. And then the unthinkable happened: Turkey, a member of NATO, in cold blood shot down Russian Su24 jet and killed its pilot.
This put a stop to Turkish Stream. How is that for a coincidence? If you observe world events and geopolitical theory and practice as closely as yours truly, you know: there are NO coincidences in global chess game. Everything and anything is pre-planned. All you have to do is follow... No, not the money, because as I have written since 2014: in our day and age money and economy take back seat to geopolitics and global interests of major players. Forget 'follow the money.' This is an outdated term that many repeat without understanding fully what it means and when and why it came about. The new slogan should be: 'follow the hidden interests of several major global players.'
I wrote previously that there only four (4) real global players. Out of that number only USA and Russia are fully sovereign geopolitically and militarily, although both have certain pressures economically, which is unavoidable in our globalized economy. The other two players, China and EU, have weaknesses and dependencies they can't overcome, making them secondary players, capable of more of a regional influence. In addition, they both play a certain second fiddle (aka, helper) to the two main players globally.
As you may know, I (unlike all those other so-called 'analysts') always maintained that the halt of Turkish Stream was temporary and that the project remained fully viable. Regardless, the delay was certainly painful.
In order to pull the complete picture together, let's answer this question: Just why is US so desperate to stop Russian gas projects to EU?
Once answered, this question will explain why it was necessary to shoot down Russian Su24 jet in 2015; why it was paramount to get Turkey and Russia hating each other; why Germany and Russia must be kept as enemies; why Ukraine was needed as a sacrificial lamb; and why Russia needed to be vilified at all cost.
These are main and interconnected reasons:
USA had to prevent at all cost the getting together of the strongest economies: German and Russian. If Germany and Russia were allowed to get together in a meaningful economic partnership, it would signal the much needed for the rebalancing of the world re-unification of Eurasia.
To paraphrase, EU and Russia together would create what Putin proposed in mid-2000s: a true Eurasian Union 'from Lisbon to Vladivostok.' This would have also opened a direct route to China through Russia, thus creating an unheard of cooperation among most of the significant world's countries.
Ultimately, it signified the end of predatory US Empire and US capitalism, based on petrodollar. Or as the US/Polish/NWO ideologue Zbignev Bzezinski said: US must prevent at all cost the merger between German technology and Russian resources.
Therefore, Ukraine's violent fascist coup, Syrian escalation, anti-Russian sanctions, followed by rift between EU/Germany and Russia, sabotage of Russian pipeline projects, the sudden out of character behavior of Turkey - and much more - all this is explained by this logic of events. What US really fears is not the fact that Russia will sell more gas to Europe and that both Russian and EU economies will benefit as a result. Not at all! Economic benefit an competitiveness of its rivals is the least of USA's problems.
What US really fears is that Russia and Europe will be able to end the long-standing artificial separation of Europe and Asia, that the people's amnesia will dissipate and they'll remember what I've been saying all along: Eurasia is one single continent, artificially separated by dark forces of human ignorance, fear and greed.
They fear that Russia - The Great Balancer - will be able to pull off the ultimate re-balancing of the world and that people will graduate to the new reality of sovereignty, harmony and cooperation, shaking off the present matrix of wars, oppression and separation. US is afraid that as a result of such tectonic EARTH SHIFT, its empire, built on the archaic principle of divide and conquer, will have to die.
'Unpredictable' behavior & seeming flip-flops by Erdogan, Davutoglu & Turkish military explained
Logic and sequence of events
Photo: Davutoglu (left) and Erdogan (right)
Why is every single participant of the entire saga acting so strangely & seemingly unpredictably?
Turkey, Erdogan, Davutoglu, Turkish military with its very strange coup, US, EU, NATO, Merkel and Germany, Russia, and to top it off, 'Syrian refugees' in the EU - literally everyone is working hard to act as weirdly as possible, confusing matters more and more.
The illogical strangeness of everyone's behavior is only on the surface. If we keep in mind my above explanations, we'll be able to understand the unexplainable flip-flops of Erdogan, confusing US/EU/Germany/NATO behavior, the failed Turkish coup, and of course, the mysterious actions by Russia and Putin.
I'll lay out the main reasons and the hidden logic of their behavior. Once I do, it'll all become crystal clear.
First, I very strongly suggest you read some of my previous Earth Shift Reports, which address Turkey/Erdogan/Davutoglu, as well as the Middle East and Syria. Links: ESR7: Turkish Conundrum and ESR5: Syria Game Changer. This article further delves into the situation: Explosive Consequences of Turkey Downing Russian Su-24 Jet in Syria – Complete Analysis and Predictions!
Syrian conflict escalation and Russian Syria campaign
In 2015 the Syria conflict escalated and ISIS-Daesh/Al Nusra began gaining momentum in several surrounding countries. Russia was in direct path of that conflict through its proximity to Russian southern borders in Caucasus and Central Asia and the presence within the ranks of ISIS of several thousand Muslim militants originally from the Russian Caucasus and the post-Soviet space These trained terrorists spoke Russian and either had Russian passports or free passage into Russia through Eurasian Union (notably, Kyrgyzstan). Therefore, it was feared that having received full combat and terror training, they would return back to wreak havoc in Russia proper.
Simultaneously, Russian intelligence uncovered a very disturbing fact of deep seated, profitable network through which Turkey aided and abetted terrorists: Turkish resorts and hospitals treated ISIS-Daesh/Al Nusra/Muslim Brotherhood terrorists for wounds and rehab; terrorist training camps were set up in Turkey; Turkey facilitated free flow of supplies and arms through its border to Syria; and very importantly, Turkey served as an intermediary for the black market sales of ISIS oil, artifacts, artificial drugs, human organ and slave trafficking, thus filling ISIS coffers with much needed cash.
At the same time, Russia discovered that Turkish highest echelons of power made billions on ISIS black market oil trade, including Erdogan's family. It was also found that foreign countries were active participants and donors to the 'ISIS cause.' Qatar and Saudi Arabia paid Turkey to train and rehab militants, they also covered for the ISIS oil sales. Qatar and Saudis, as well as EU, Canada and US also served as a market for human organ, slave, drug (mostly EU) and artifact trafficking. Further, through third parties or through 'inadvertent mistakes' US supplied weapons to ISIS and invested at least $500 mln into training them.
At the same time, the 'US coalition of the willing in fight against ISIS,' comprised of 40+ countries, some of whom actually directly aided said terrorists, was pretending to bomb ISIS positions in Syria, Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan - with zero result. Most of the time they simply dropped arms and supplies to their pet 'moderate opposition,' most of whom quickly defected to ISIS together with US supplies and weapons.
While Russia watched on the sidelines, reeling from US/EU sanctions designed to keep Russia down, US lied to the rest of the world and ISIS kept expanding, getting closer to Russian borders. All this is discussed in detail, with proofs, in ESR5 and ESR7.
It was clear that all this criminal activity tremendously helped Turkish economy. Turkey and Erdogan were becoming too bold and audacious for their own good. To add insult to injury, Russia and Turkey had visa-free regime at the time, Russia was preparing to build Turkish Stream and a major new Turkish nuclear power plant. Moreover, millions of Russian families with children vacationed in Turkey - some likely next to ISIS terrorists, unbeknownst to them. Russia was a huge donor to Turkish economy, while many Russian citizens could potentially become victims and hostages, should the situation in Turkey escalate.
How Putin prepared legal and PR grounds for Russia's Syria campaign
When it became clear that US/EU were aiding terrorists, instead of fighting them, Russia began preparations for her own Syria campaign in mid to early-autumn 2015. But surely, clandestine preparations began a lot earlier. Vladimir Putin arrived to then G20 summit in Turkey and handed out to every participant a secret list of 40+ countries aiding ISIS-Daesh and other Islamist terrorists. The list of countries was never made public; however, Putin diplomatically announced that among these 40 there were many members of G20. Neither Turkey, nor US, nor Qatar/Saudis apparently heard Russian warning back then. And forget EU, which totally resided in la-la land.
As a side note, I will tell you something I've been hinting on in my Earth Shift Report since 2014, but apparently even my very open-minded readers weren't ready accept the message. Apart from Syria, Lebanon, Iran, Iraq, Egypt and Afghanistan - in short, those countries that knew exactly what's going on in the region and feel it every day - there was one country in particular that understood what Russia was about to do and took it seriously. This country was Israel.
Again, this is something I said before, but let me reiterate: Israel gets it that US Empire days are about finished and it re-positions itself towards Russia and the East. Israel's relations with US and EU soured not by accident. Israel is actively looking for new friends.
Therefore, those who continue regurgitating the old propaganda that 'Israel rules the US' and that Israel and Zionists are behind just about everything in this world, please carefully read ESR6: NEW KHAZARIAN KHAGANATE - it may just bring you the real clarity!
Israeli PM and intelligence officials began coming to Moscow. Even before Russia announced her Syria operation, Israel struck with Russia the intel sharing and non-collision agreements.
Next, Putin arrived to the UN General Assembly, where he made his historic speech, in which he very diplomatically explained the dangers of ISIS expansion, and revealed to the entire world the fact that many countries, US/EU included, aided terrorists. He uttered his famous warning: 'do you even understand what you've done?' Putin basically announced Russian Syria op and warned those who were ISIS-complicit to stay out of the way.
Again, it seems no one took his words seriously. The deranged Obama and spectacularly inadequate Samantha Powers had wan smiles on their faces. It appears US and EU simply couldn't fathom that Russia would have the nerve to begin Syria op on her own, especially after their successful subversion of Ukraine and crippling anti-Russian sanctions. Isn't Russia supposed to be down and dying? What a shock it was when Russia actually began bombing ISIS in Syria.
To say that Syria op hugely increased Russia's global influence and clout is to say nothing. At the same time, Russia's Syria op greatly undermined USA's / EU influence and the very foundation of the Western system. Syria op was a brilliant move by Putin and Russia, and brilliantly executed.
Its interesting side effects included the successful Brexit referendum, digging under the very foundation of the rotten to the core EU; and Merkel's loss of face, leading to her eventual downfall. Russia's move also emboldened certain more reasonable forces in the US. Obama's reputation plunged, and by extension, the Democrats' reputation plunged as well, which would eventually result in Hillary Clinton's downfall. Meanwhile, alternative candidates were emboldened by Obama/Clinton/neoliberal/globalist agenda weakness. We have seen the surprisingly good primaries' results of Bernie Sanders, the alternative Green Party Jill Stein's rise, and of course, Donald Trump. All non-globalist candidates, who also happen to disapprove of USA's conflict with Russia.
Why is every single participant of the entire saga acting so strangely & seemingly unpredictably?
Turkey, Erdogan, Davutoglu, Turkish military with its very strange coup, US, EU, NATO, Merkel and Germany, Russia, and to top it off, 'Syrian refugees' in the EU - literally everyone is working hard to act as weirdly as possible, confusing matters more and more.
The illogical strangeness of everyone's behavior is only on the surface. If we keep in mind my above explanations, we'll be able to understand the unexplainable flip-flops of Erdogan, confusing US/EU/Germany/NATO behavior, the failed Turkish coup, and of course, the mysterious actions by Russia and Putin.
I'll lay out the main reasons and the hidden logic of their behavior. Once I do, it'll all become crystal clear.
First, I very strongly suggest you read some of my previous Earth Shift Reports, which address Turkey/Erdogan/Davutoglu, as well as the Middle East and Syria. Links: ESR7: Turkish Conundrum and ESR5: Syria Game Changer. This article further delves into the situation: Explosive Consequences of Turkey Downing Russian Su-24 Jet in Syria – Complete Analysis and Predictions!
Syrian conflict escalation and Russian Syria campaign
In 2015 the Syria conflict escalated and ISIS-Daesh/Al Nusra began gaining momentum in several surrounding countries. Russia was in direct path of that conflict through its proximity to Russian southern borders in Caucasus and Central Asia and the presence within the ranks of ISIS of several thousand Muslim militants originally from the Russian Caucasus and the post-Soviet space These trained terrorists spoke Russian and either had Russian passports or free passage into Russia through Eurasian Union (notably, Kyrgyzstan). Therefore, it was feared that having received full combat and terror training, they would return back to wreak havoc in Russia proper.
Simultaneously, Russian intelligence uncovered a very disturbing fact of deep seated, profitable network through which Turkey aided and abetted terrorists: Turkish resorts and hospitals treated ISIS-Daesh/Al Nusra/Muslim Brotherhood terrorists for wounds and rehab; terrorist training camps were set up in Turkey; Turkey facilitated free flow of supplies and arms through its border to Syria; and very importantly, Turkey served as an intermediary for the black market sales of ISIS oil, artifacts, artificial drugs, human organ and slave trafficking, thus filling ISIS coffers with much needed cash.
At the same time, Russia discovered that Turkish highest echelons of power made billions on ISIS black market oil trade, including Erdogan's family. It was also found that foreign countries were active participants and donors to the 'ISIS cause.' Qatar and Saudi Arabia paid Turkey to train and rehab militants, they also covered for the ISIS oil sales. Qatar and Saudis, as well as EU, Canada and US also served as a market for human organ, slave, drug (mostly EU) and artifact trafficking. Further, through third parties or through 'inadvertent mistakes' US supplied weapons to ISIS and invested at least $500 mln into training them.
At the same time, the 'US coalition of the willing in fight against ISIS,' comprised of 40+ countries, some of whom actually directly aided said terrorists, was pretending to bomb ISIS positions in Syria, Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan - with zero result. Most of the time they simply dropped arms and supplies to their pet 'moderate opposition,' most of whom quickly defected to ISIS together with US supplies and weapons.
While Russia watched on the sidelines, reeling from US/EU sanctions designed to keep Russia down, US lied to the rest of the world and ISIS kept expanding, getting closer to Russian borders. All this is discussed in detail, with proofs, in ESR5 and ESR7.
It was clear that all this criminal activity tremendously helped Turkish economy. Turkey and Erdogan were becoming too bold and audacious for their own good. To add insult to injury, Russia and Turkey had visa-free regime at the time, Russia was preparing to build Turkish Stream and a major new Turkish nuclear power plant. Moreover, millions of Russian families with children vacationed in Turkey - some likely next to ISIS terrorists, unbeknownst to them. Russia was a huge donor to Turkish economy, while many Russian citizens could potentially become victims and hostages, should the situation in Turkey escalate.
How Putin prepared legal and PR grounds for Russia's Syria campaign
When it became clear that US/EU were aiding terrorists, instead of fighting them, Russia began preparations for her own Syria campaign in mid to early-autumn 2015. But surely, clandestine preparations began a lot earlier. Vladimir Putin arrived to then G20 summit in Turkey and handed out to every participant a secret list of 40+ countries aiding ISIS-Daesh and other Islamist terrorists. The list of countries was never made public; however, Putin diplomatically announced that among these 40 there were many members of G20. Neither Turkey, nor US, nor Qatar/Saudis apparently heard Russian warning back then. And forget EU, which totally resided in la-la land.
As a side note, I will tell you something I've been hinting on in my Earth Shift Report since 2014, but apparently even my very open-minded readers weren't ready accept the message. Apart from Syria, Lebanon, Iran, Iraq, Egypt and Afghanistan - in short, those countries that knew exactly what's going on in the region and feel it every day - there was one country in particular that understood what Russia was about to do and took it seriously. This country was Israel.
Again, this is something I said before, but let me reiterate: Israel gets it that US Empire days are about finished and it re-positions itself towards Russia and the East. Israel's relations with US and EU soured not by accident. Israel is actively looking for new friends.
Therefore, those who continue regurgitating the old propaganda that 'Israel rules the US' and that Israel and Zionists are behind just about everything in this world, please carefully read ESR6: NEW KHAZARIAN KHAGANATE - it may just bring you the real clarity!
Israeli PM and intelligence officials began coming to Moscow. Even before Russia announced her Syria operation, Israel struck with Russia the intel sharing and non-collision agreements.
Next, Putin arrived to the UN General Assembly, where he made his historic speech, in which he very diplomatically explained the dangers of ISIS expansion, and revealed to the entire world the fact that many countries, US/EU included, aided terrorists. He uttered his famous warning: 'do you even understand what you've done?' Putin basically announced Russian Syria op and warned those who were ISIS-complicit to stay out of the way.
Again, it seems no one took his words seriously. The deranged Obama and spectacularly inadequate Samantha Powers had wan smiles on their faces. It appears US and EU simply couldn't fathom that Russia would have the nerve to begin Syria op on her own, especially after their successful subversion of Ukraine and crippling anti-Russian sanctions. Isn't Russia supposed to be down and dying? What a shock it was when Russia actually began bombing ISIS in Syria.
To say that Syria op hugely increased Russia's global influence and clout is to say nothing. At the same time, Russia's Syria op greatly undermined USA's / EU influence and the very foundation of the Western system. Syria op was a brilliant move by Putin and Russia, and brilliantly executed.
Its interesting side effects included the successful Brexit referendum, digging under the very foundation of the rotten to the core EU; and Merkel's loss of face, leading to her eventual downfall. Russia's move also emboldened certain more reasonable forces in the US. Obama's reputation plunged, and by extension, the Democrats' reputation plunged as well, which would eventually result in Hillary Clinton's downfall. Meanwhile, alternative candidates were emboldened by Obama/Clinton/neoliberal/globalist agenda weakness. We have seen the surprisingly good primaries' results of Bernie Sanders, the alternative Green Party Jill Stein's rise, and of course, Donald Trump. All non-globalist candidates, who also happen to disapprove of USA's conflict with Russia.
Turkey's attack against Russian Su24: how it happened and who was behind it
As Russia began the bombings of ISIS terrorists in Syria, it became clear that within a couple of months Russians managed to do what USA's pretend anti-ISIS coalition was unable to do in 18 months. ISIS underground arms depots, suicide belt factories, training and command centers, oil rigs and convoys went up in flames one after another. Russia was demonstrating all too well that US, EU, Turkey, Saudis and Qatar were complicit and covered up for terrorists. Therefore, it was necessary to somehow stop Russia, or at least make her Syria op painful and/or humiliating.
A very below-the-belt move was devised. As it's now clear, it was designed by the USA, Turkish PM Davutoglu & Turkish military being direct executors. They knew that Russian Syria base was close to the Turkish border and that Russian pilots normally returned to the base after a mission, flying very close to that border.
In fact, a tiny extended sliver of Turkish territory cleaved deep into Syria. Russian pilots, depending on the wind and angle of return, could potentially slip into the Turkish side for a few seconds. Turkish military jets were waiting in ambush for days for a Russian jet to make an inadvertent slip. The Russian Su24 bomber, returning from one of its sorties, apparently crossed for a few seconds into Turkish territory, leaving it immediately back to Syria. Turkish jets ambushed the unprotected, solitary Russian from behind, pursued it well within Syrian territory and shot it down. Both pilots evacuated. The whole thing was filmed by Islamist militants from the ground. Surprisingly professionally done footage immediately suggested that militants were tipped off exactly when and where the tragedy was to take place and came well prepared. Both pilots were shot at from the ground. Second pilot managed to land unharmed and was later rescued by Syrian army. But first pilot was killed by terrorists shooting from the ground, while still in the air and attempting to land. It turned out that he was killed by a son of a Turkish city mayor, who later bragged about it in social media and around his city.
Russian reaction to the killing of the Russian pilot & jet downing:
S400s and no-fly zone, Syria campaign surge
Sanctions, freeze of Turkish Stream & other projects, withdrawal of Erdogan's support
Putin immediately branded it 'a knife in Russia's back.' All civilian air traffic with Turkey was suspended, Russian tourists advised to return home and tourism stopped. Russia canceled visa-free regime with Turkey, froze any developing trade deals, such Turkish Stream and nuclear power plant construction. Within Russia, many Turkish construction firms were closed down and Turkish workers in Russia deported. Russia banned imports of Turkish foods and produce - another blow for Turkish economy.
The results of Russian sanctions became apparent 5-6 months later. During high season 2016 Turkish beaches and resorts were empty; Turkish fruits and vegetables rotted without buyer; merchants, hotel and business owners went bankrupt.
I'd talked about this at length in previous ESR7. To reiterate: Russia undoubtedly knew that Turks helped terrorists. But for years Russian policy was to try to reason with Turks and to offer them such great trade deals they could not refuse that the fear of losing these deals would moderate Turks/Erdogan's behavior, and eventually convince Turkey to stop supporting terrorism and extremism. For a time this tactic seemed to work, until the dark forces yet again seduced Erdogan and swayed Turkey in the wrong direction.
First Ottoman Empire, and then Turkey, were for centuries used as a weapon against Russia. The very creation of Turkey by the UK and France in 1920s was in order to weaken Russia (then USSR) and to create a barrier to Russia's presence in Black Sea and Mediterranean. In early 1920s Lenin tried to set up a friendly relationship with Turkey, but Turkey was easily bought up by the West. In fact, Lenin and the Bolsheviks gave up what was supposed to be Russian for the taking, the much needed Black Sea straits, to appease Turkey. That, of course, turned out to be a huge mistake. The story of how it really happened (not the official falsified version), and whether it was treason, sheer stupidity or something else, is fascinating and very educational and I'll write about it soon. Please stay tuned!
In 1930s the USSR again reached out to Turkey, proposing an exceptionally lucrative deal, according to which Turkey would become Russia/USSR's ally, with protection of the Soviet Army and various trade deals afoot. In exchange Turkey had to agree to a Russian base in the Dardanelles, plus to closing down Black Sea to outside foreign ships. Turkey was very quickly again bought-up by UK and Germany, who promised it the world - never delivered, of course. Unfortunately, Turkish/Ottoman behavior was always very wishy-washy and treacherous. This is what lost them the empire; should it continue, it may eventually lose them Turkey, as well.
After everything that happened, has Erdogan finally got the message? In his exclusive 8/8/16 interview to Vesti-24 in the run up to the meeting with Putin, he stated that Turkey's motives towards Russia are 'above board and sincere.' But this was said before, and then Su24 happened. Can it happen again? Absolutely, and Russia better keep antennas up at all times.
In this case, Turkey's and Erdogan's misguided ambitions of restoring the Ottoman Empire were successfully manipulated by outside forces - namely US, Saudis, Qatar - to create a precarious situation in the flourishing Turkey - Russia relationship.
Again, it appears everyone underestimated Russian response and resolve.
Immediately after the Su24 downing, Erdogan and Turkish officials made a lot of conflicting statements. Erdogan was quick to come out and say that Turkey had the right to defend itself and had every right to shoot down a plane that crossed its border. Immediately Greece came out with announcement that Turkish jets routinely violated their airspace, to the tune of thousands of times a year, and no one ever shot down a Turkish plane. Israel made similar public announcements. That stopped Turkish proclamations.
Instead, PM Davutoglu announced that the order to shoot down Su24 came from his office. To add to the confusion, other contradictory announcements came out: Turkish officials said that it was the military that made the decision, without consulting the president. And the latest: turns out it was pilot's error. Of course this doesn't hold water as it was proven that Turkish jets were waiting in ambush for the Russian jet and shot it cowardly, but calculatedly, from behind.
After the incident Turkey tried very hard to downplay the fallout. Big deal, it's just one plane. We should really forget it and move on. But it quickly became clear that there would be hell to pay. Russia delivered S400 missile defence systems to Syria, which covered Syria, parts of Turkey and other countries. After that, no Turkish jet was allowed into Syrian space, and US/NATO jets had to ask Russia's permission. Putin outlined the conditions for the turnaround of Russian-Turkish relations. Public apology by Erdogan to Russia and to slain pilot's family; restitution to pilot's family and compensation for the jet.
Turkey is a Middle Eastern country, complete with the archaic notion of apologizing or admitting one's mistake tantamount to admitting one's weakness, resulting in a loss of face and power. Therefore, Erdogan refused to apologize, instead doing everything to squirm his way out of the stalemate situation. He immediately ran to NATO and US for protection and received a response that it was between Turkey and Russia and that NATO wouldn't interfere.
Erdogan was peeved. What do you mean - won't interfere? We are a member of the alliance; we allow your bases on our territory to threaten Russia since as early as 1940s; we did what you told us, shot down the Russian Su. And now you are leaving us hanging?
US realized that Turkey was going to be difficult and a new Turkey's bribery plan was devised. The point man for the plan was PM Davutoglu, whose nature and political orientation I discussed at length in ESR5 and ESR7.
Why Davutoglu was chosen? Erdogan is known for his flip-flops, pridefulness, propensity for the creation of enemies, and rebellion. He fancies himself as a new Ottoman sultan and has the kind of ego that's overinflated and unhealthy. His grasp on reality is somewhat poor and distorted. But with all that, amazingly, he appeals to a significant part of the population, especially in villages and small towns. He also has tremendous support among Syrian refugees - they are, after all, grateful he accepted several million of them. (More on how the refugee card helped Erdogan later). Another plus for Erdogan: he is pro-sovereignty for Turkey and he doesn't want Turkey to continue serving as a patsy to the US and West.
Meanwhile, Davutolgu is considered a softer version, more reasonable and what's important, more pro-West. It's also important that he is a Crimean Tartar by birth, who hates Russia, and who in his wet dreams sees Crimea as part of Turkey. My intel says that Davutoglu had begun working with Ukraine on the plan to quietly sell Crimea to Turkey. Crimean Tartar Mejlis - now recognized as terrorist organization in Russia - was preparing to take power on the peninsula. In that case, Crimea would be turned into a massive US base. What would happen to the Russian fleet and the Russian-speaking majority is anyone's guess. Crimea's turning into a US base under Turkish control was supposed to be the cherry on the cake of the Kiev coup. It was only Putin's resolute steps and Crimean referendum that prevented this catastrophic scenario.
A very below-the-belt move was devised. As it's now clear, it was designed by the USA, Turkish PM Davutoglu & Turkish military being direct executors. They knew that Russian Syria base was close to the Turkish border and that Russian pilots normally returned to the base after a mission, flying very close to that border.
In fact, a tiny extended sliver of Turkish territory cleaved deep into Syria. Russian pilots, depending on the wind and angle of return, could potentially slip into the Turkish side for a few seconds. Turkish military jets were waiting in ambush for days for a Russian jet to make an inadvertent slip. The Russian Su24 bomber, returning from one of its sorties, apparently crossed for a few seconds into Turkish territory, leaving it immediately back to Syria. Turkish jets ambushed the unprotected, solitary Russian from behind, pursued it well within Syrian territory and shot it down. Both pilots evacuated. The whole thing was filmed by Islamist militants from the ground. Surprisingly professionally done footage immediately suggested that militants were tipped off exactly when and where the tragedy was to take place and came well prepared. Both pilots were shot at from the ground. Second pilot managed to land unharmed and was later rescued by Syrian army. But first pilot was killed by terrorists shooting from the ground, while still in the air and attempting to land. It turned out that he was killed by a son of a Turkish city mayor, who later bragged about it in social media and around his city.
Russian reaction to the killing of the Russian pilot & jet downing:
S400s and no-fly zone, Syria campaign surge
Sanctions, freeze of Turkish Stream & other projects, withdrawal of Erdogan's support
Putin immediately branded it 'a knife in Russia's back.' All civilian air traffic with Turkey was suspended, Russian tourists advised to return home and tourism stopped. Russia canceled visa-free regime with Turkey, froze any developing trade deals, such Turkish Stream and nuclear power plant construction. Within Russia, many Turkish construction firms were closed down and Turkish workers in Russia deported. Russia banned imports of Turkish foods and produce - another blow for Turkish economy.
The results of Russian sanctions became apparent 5-6 months later. During high season 2016 Turkish beaches and resorts were empty; Turkish fruits and vegetables rotted without buyer; merchants, hotel and business owners went bankrupt.
I'd talked about this at length in previous ESR7. To reiterate: Russia undoubtedly knew that Turks helped terrorists. But for years Russian policy was to try to reason with Turks and to offer them such great trade deals they could not refuse that the fear of losing these deals would moderate Turks/Erdogan's behavior, and eventually convince Turkey to stop supporting terrorism and extremism. For a time this tactic seemed to work, until the dark forces yet again seduced Erdogan and swayed Turkey in the wrong direction.
First Ottoman Empire, and then Turkey, were for centuries used as a weapon against Russia. The very creation of Turkey by the UK and France in 1920s was in order to weaken Russia (then USSR) and to create a barrier to Russia's presence in Black Sea and Mediterranean. In early 1920s Lenin tried to set up a friendly relationship with Turkey, but Turkey was easily bought up by the West. In fact, Lenin and the Bolsheviks gave up what was supposed to be Russian for the taking, the much needed Black Sea straits, to appease Turkey. That, of course, turned out to be a huge mistake. The story of how it really happened (not the official falsified version), and whether it was treason, sheer stupidity or something else, is fascinating and very educational and I'll write about it soon. Please stay tuned!
In 1930s the USSR again reached out to Turkey, proposing an exceptionally lucrative deal, according to which Turkey would become Russia/USSR's ally, with protection of the Soviet Army and various trade deals afoot. In exchange Turkey had to agree to a Russian base in the Dardanelles, plus to closing down Black Sea to outside foreign ships. Turkey was very quickly again bought-up by UK and Germany, who promised it the world - never delivered, of course. Unfortunately, Turkish/Ottoman behavior was always very wishy-washy and treacherous. This is what lost them the empire; should it continue, it may eventually lose them Turkey, as well.
After everything that happened, has Erdogan finally got the message? In his exclusive 8/8/16 interview to Vesti-24 in the run up to the meeting with Putin, he stated that Turkey's motives towards Russia are 'above board and sincere.' But this was said before, and then Su24 happened. Can it happen again? Absolutely, and Russia better keep antennas up at all times.
In this case, Turkey's and Erdogan's misguided ambitions of restoring the Ottoman Empire were successfully manipulated by outside forces - namely US, Saudis, Qatar - to create a precarious situation in the flourishing Turkey - Russia relationship.
Again, it appears everyone underestimated Russian response and resolve.
Immediately after the Su24 downing, Erdogan and Turkish officials made a lot of conflicting statements. Erdogan was quick to come out and say that Turkey had the right to defend itself and had every right to shoot down a plane that crossed its border. Immediately Greece came out with announcement that Turkish jets routinely violated their airspace, to the tune of thousands of times a year, and no one ever shot down a Turkish plane. Israel made similar public announcements. That stopped Turkish proclamations.
Instead, PM Davutoglu announced that the order to shoot down Su24 came from his office. To add to the confusion, other contradictory announcements came out: Turkish officials said that it was the military that made the decision, without consulting the president. And the latest: turns out it was pilot's error. Of course this doesn't hold water as it was proven that Turkish jets were waiting in ambush for the Russian jet and shot it cowardly, but calculatedly, from behind.
After the incident Turkey tried very hard to downplay the fallout. Big deal, it's just one plane. We should really forget it and move on. But it quickly became clear that there would be hell to pay. Russia delivered S400 missile defence systems to Syria, which covered Syria, parts of Turkey and other countries. After that, no Turkish jet was allowed into Syrian space, and US/NATO jets had to ask Russia's permission. Putin outlined the conditions for the turnaround of Russian-Turkish relations. Public apology by Erdogan to Russia and to slain pilot's family; restitution to pilot's family and compensation for the jet.
Turkey is a Middle Eastern country, complete with the archaic notion of apologizing or admitting one's mistake tantamount to admitting one's weakness, resulting in a loss of face and power. Therefore, Erdogan refused to apologize, instead doing everything to squirm his way out of the stalemate situation. He immediately ran to NATO and US for protection and received a response that it was between Turkey and Russia and that NATO wouldn't interfere.
Erdogan was peeved. What do you mean - won't interfere? We are a member of the alliance; we allow your bases on our territory to threaten Russia since as early as 1940s; we did what you told us, shot down the Russian Su. And now you are leaving us hanging?
US realized that Turkey was going to be difficult and a new Turkey's bribery plan was devised. The point man for the plan was PM Davutoglu, whose nature and political orientation I discussed at length in ESR5 and ESR7.
Why Davutoglu was chosen? Erdogan is known for his flip-flops, pridefulness, propensity for the creation of enemies, and rebellion. He fancies himself as a new Ottoman sultan and has the kind of ego that's overinflated and unhealthy. His grasp on reality is somewhat poor and distorted. But with all that, amazingly, he appeals to a significant part of the population, especially in villages and small towns. He also has tremendous support among Syrian refugees - they are, after all, grateful he accepted several million of them. (More on how the refugee card helped Erdogan later). Another plus for Erdogan: he is pro-sovereignty for Turkey and he doesn't want Turkey to continue serving as a patsy to the US and West.
Meanwhile, Davutolgu is considered a softer version, more reasonable and what's important, more pro-West. It's also important that he is a Crimean Tartar by birth, who hates Russia, and who in his wet dreams sees Crimea as part of Turkey. My intel says that Davutoglu had begun working with Ukraine on the plan to quietly sell Crimea to Turkey. Crimean Tartar Mejlis - now recognized as terrorist organization in Russia - was preparing to take power on the peninsula. In that case, Crimea would be turned into a massive US base. What would happen to the Russian fleet and the Russian-speaking majority is anyone's guess. Crimea's turning into a US base under Turkish control was supposed to be the cherry on the cake of the Kiev coup. It was only Putin's resolute steps and Crimean referendum that prevented this catastrophic scenario.
When this nightmare scenario for Russia, but a dream scenario for US, Kiev junta and Turkey, failed to realize, Davutoglu put all his hopes on Turkey joining the EU. It has to be noted that manipulation is usually a two-way street. While the West wanted to manipulate Turkey against Russia, Turkey sought to manipulate the West. Who outmanipulated whom? Hard to say. One thing for sure: they deserved each other.
Another important thing to understand is that Turkish economy was really not in the best of shapes for years, however its true state was camouflaged successfully due to infusions of Russian money into tourism, real estate and resort industries; due to Russian imports of Turkish goods and produce; due to Turkey's shady dealings with ISIS, plus Qatar/Saudi infusions for training and rehabbing of terrorists.
At the same time, Turkey was suffering a huge inflow of Syrian refugees. The new plan, whispered to Davutoglu by his US handlers, was to ship as many refugees as possible to the EU, thus destabilizing the Europe. This would weaken EU and oblige it to negotiate with Turkey to keep refugees on Turkish side. Turkey's good graces would become indispensable for EU's survival and then it could demand preferential treatment.
That's exactly what happened. The EU offered Turkey up to 6 bln euros in exchange for keeping refugees away from the EU. Merkel also promised a quick ascension to the EU for the country that was continuously rejected for years. Again, it has to be remembered that just as recently as 2014 Erdogan was asking Putin (only semi-jokingly) if Russia would admit Turkey into Eurasian Union, since EU snubbed it.
This demonstrates: 1. How peeved and self-conscious Turks in fact are at not being accepted in the EU; 2. How manipulative they really are; 3. The high level of flip-flopping and being for sale to the highest bidder means they cannot be fully trusted. By contrast, look at how Syria and Assad behave!
That said, here is something I can say in favor of Erdogan. While many analysts have missed it completely, it is fairly obvious to me. It was Erdogan who always conducted negotiations with Russia and Putin. At the very minimum this shows that he feels favorable towards Russia. However, it wasn't Erdogan, but Davutoglu, who usually met with Merkel and EU heads, who signed deals with EU about refugees and about Turkey's EU ascension. EU officials courted Davutoglu, while he shone like a brand new silver dollar from all that attention, feeling like the belle of the ball. That was obviously the goal. It also shows just how naive and inexperienced in worldly matters Turks really are.
I predicted in 2015 that Turkey would never be accepted into the EU, and that after lots of promises EU would begin doing a very fancy footwork to slither out of the initial deal. This is exactly what happened. EU began demanding from Turkey various concessions and Erdogan went into his stubborn mode.
At the same time, my prediction, voiced in Explosive Consequences of Turkey Downing Su-24 that the jet downing would severely backfire not only on Turkey, but also on the US and Democrats, came true handily. As was predicted in the same article, Russia intensified greatly its bombings of ISIS, helping Syrian army advance, while also providing S400 coverage all the way to Turkey and half of the Middle East. For the first time Syrian army began serious advancement and managed to liberate more than half of its territory, including the ancient Palmyra. Aleppo is next in line. Russian bombings eliminated much of ISIS infrastructure, killed untold thousands of militants an prevented many new terrorists from materializing. Emboldened by Russian successes, Iraqi and Afghani military also began attacking ISIS positions and liberating their strongholds. Both Iraq and Afghanistan attempted to seek Russian help, but US forbid them. All in all, ISIS finally began shrinking. Many ISIS-Daesh-Al Nusra militants began changing colors to pretend being 'moderate opposition' and avoid being targeted by Russian aviation.
A veritable pilgrimage to Moscow of various Syrian opposition, Kurdish and Middle Eastern leaders ensued. For months, Putin, Lavrov and others were receiving delegations from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iran, Afghanistan, Egypt, Israel, Syria, etc. Russia began being touted globally as the only viable force for peace in the Middle East. Some of Syrian opposition went to Moscow to declare their allegiance to Russia in exchange for not being bombed. Some truly moderate opposition (unlike those whom US supported) began delivering ISIS intel to Russia.
Let's one more time point out the obvious: US completely and utterly missed the entire Russian move and was repeatedly caught with its pants down. Finally, seeing Russian successes, US had no choice but to negotiate. Kerry played a lot of games with 'moderate opposition' not being terrorists. US also announced that they would take the ISIS capital Raqqa, proclaiming that whoever takes the capital wins the war. The silliness of this was pretty obvious: something like this already happened during WWII, when US and UK were trying to sit out Hitler's war against Russia and only got involved in 1944, after it became clear that Russians could easily win the entire war on their own.
US decided to arm the Kurdish army, while supporting it with aviation, thus plagiarizing the Russian Syria strategy. The truth is that Kurds were begging Russia to arm them. The problem was that Assad had a difficult relationship with the Kurds, who wanted independence. Russia could not support the Kurds directly. The elegant solution was found: let Americans arm the Kurds and help them go against Raqqa.
Here's what this achieved:
1. The well organized Kurds were now armed and able to advance from another direction, tying up some of ISIS forces and facilitating Syrian Army advancement.
2. It tied US with the Kurds, while Russians weren't implicated so not to offend Assad and Syrians.
3. Most importantly, US walked into a quick sand it now can't get out of. Erdogan is at war with the Kurds both on Turkish and Syrian sides. He took it as a personal affront and humiliation that US, his NATO ally, was arming the Kurds who were his personal enemies. This ensured that the rift between US/NATO/EU vs. Erdogan grew into a chasm. And this was the brilliance of the Russian move. The rest of Syria was covered by Russia, therefore, trying to save what's left of his face, Obama, Kerry and US just walked into the Kurdish quick sand set up for them by Russians!
Now look at the side effect of this, as far as Turkey is concerned. After everything that happened, Erdogan is convinced that US betrayed him on many fronts, including Kurds. Meanwhile Russia, wisely letting US do the dirty job, came out looking good.
Another important thing to understand is that Turkish economy was really not in the best of shapes for years, however its true state was camouflaged successfully due to infusions of Russian money into tourism, real estate and resort industries; due to Russian imports of Turkish goods and produce; due to Turkey's shady dealings with ISIS, plus Qatar/Saudi infusions for training and rehabbing of terrorists.
At the same time, Turkey was suffering a huge inflow of Syrian refugees. The new plan, whispered to Davutoglu by his US handlers, was to ship as many refugees as possible to the EU, thus destabilizing the Europe. This would weaken EU and oblige it to negotiate with Turkey to keep refugees on Turkish side. Turkey's good graces would become indispensable for EU's survival and then it could demand preferential treatment.
That's exactly what happened. The EU offered Turkey up to 6 bln euros in exchange for keeping refugees away from the EU. Merkel also promised a quick ascension to the EU for the country that was continuously rejected for years. Again, it has to be remembered that just as recently as 2014 Erdogan was asking Putin (only semi-jokingly) if Russia would admit Turkey into Eurasian Union, since EU snubbed it.
This demonstrates: 1. How peeved and self-conscious Turks in fact are at not being accepted in the EU; 2. How manipulative they really are; 3. The high level of flip-flopping and being for sale to the highest bidder means they cannot be fully trusted. By contrast, look at how Syria and Assad behave!
That said, here is something I can say in favor of Erdogan. While many analysts have missed it completely, it is fairly obvious to me. It was Erdogan who always conducted negotiations with Russia and Putin. At the very minimum this shows that he feels favorable towards Russia. However, it wasn't Erdogan, but Davutoglu, who usually met with Merkel and EU heads, who signed deals with EU about refugees and about Turkey's EU ascension. EU officials courted Davutoglu, while he shone like a brand new silver dollar from all that attention, feeling like the belle of the ball. That was obviously the goal. It also shows just how naive and inexperienced in worldly matters Turks really are.
I predicted in 2015 that Turkey would never be accepted into the EU, and that after lots of promises EU would begin doing a very fancy footwork to slither out of the initial deal. This is exactly what happened. EU began demanding from Turkey various concessions and Erdogan went into his stubborn mode.
At the same time, my prediction, voiced in Explosive Consequences of Turkey Downing Su-24 that the jet downing would severely backfire not only on Turkey, but also on the US and Democrats, came true handily. As was predicted in the same article, Russia intensified greatly its bombings of ISIS, helping Syrian army advance, while also providing S400 coverage all the way to Turkey and half of the Middle East. For the first time Syrian army began serious advancement and managed to liberate more than half of its territory, including the ancient Palmyra. Aleppo is next in line. Russian bombings eliminated much of ISIS infrastructure, killed untold thousands of militants an prevented many new terrorists from materializing. Emboldened by Russian successes, Iraqi and Afghani military also began attacking ISIS positions and liberating their strongholds. Both Iraq and Afghanistan attempted to seek Russian help, but US forbid them. All in all, ISIS finally began shrinking. Many ISIS-Daesh-Al Nusra militants began changing colors to pretend being 'moderate opposition' and avoid being targeted by Russian aviation.
A veritable pilgrimage to Moscow of various Syrian opposition, Kurdish and Middle Eastern leaders ensued. For months, Putin, Lavrov and others were receiving delegations from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iran, Afghanistan, Egypt, Israel, Syria, etc. Russia began being touted globally as the only viable force for peace in the Middle East. Some of Syrian opposition went to Moscow to declare their allegiance to Russia in exchange for not being bombed. Some truly moderate opposition (unlike those whom US supported) began delivering ISIS intel to Russia.
Let's one more time point out the obvious: US completely and utterly missed the entire Russian move and was repeatedly caught with its pants down. Finally, seeing Russian successes, US had no choice but to negotiate. Kerry played a lot of games with 'moderate opposition' not being terrorists. US also announced that they would take the ISIS capital Raqqa, proclaiming that whoever takes the capital wins the war. The silliness of this was pretty obvious: something like this already happened during WWII, when US and UK were trying to sit out Hitler's war against Russia and only got involved in 1944, after it became clear that Russians could easily win the entire war on their own.
US decided to arm the Kurdish army, while supporting it with aviation, thus plagiarizing the Russian Syria strategy. The truth is that Kurds were begging Russia to arm them. The problem was that Assad had a difficult relationship with the Kurds, who wanted independence. Russia could not support the Kurds directly. The elegant solution was found: let Americans arm the Kurds and help them go against Raqqa.
Here's what this achieved:
1. The well organized Kurds were now armed and able to advance from another direction, tying up some of ISIS forces and facilitating Syrian Army advancement.
2. It tied US with the Kurds, while Russians weren't implicated so not to offend Assad and Syrians.
3. Most importantly, US walked into a quick sand it now can't get out of. Erdogan is at war with the Kurds both on Turkish and Syrian sides. He took it as a personal affront and humiliation that US, his NATO ally, was arming the Kurds who were his personal enemies. This ensured that the rift between US/NATO/EU vs. Erdogan grew into a chasm. And this was the brilliance of the Russian move. The rest of Syria was covered by Russia, therefore, trying to save what's left of his face, Obama, Kerry and US just walked into the Kurdish quick sand set up for them by Russians!
Now look at the side effect of this, as far as Turkey is concerned. After everything that happened, Erdogan is convinced that US betrayed him on many fronts, including Kurds. Meanwhile Russia, wisely letting US do the dirty job, came out looking good.
The odd couple: Erdogan and Davutoglu.
Why Davutoglu was fired. Or did he really quit on his own? If so, why?
Why Davutoglu was fired. Or did he really quit on his own? If so, why?
We had discussed the confusing and controversial figure of Davutoglu in ESR7.
Davutoglu had - still does - his own presidential ambitions. But he isn't a military man, like Erdogan. He is an academic and isn't as tough as Erdogan when it comes to direct physical confrontation.
Davutoglu is also preferred by far by both US and EU. They'd love to see him at the helm of Turkey, instead of Erdogan. Davutoglu was in charge of ideology of the New Ottoman Empire; he also curated the 'taking over' of the Muslim post-Soviet space and he especially had his eye on Crimea. He was the official curator of the extremist Mejlis, providing their financing, equipment, PR and targets, such as food and energy blockade of the Crimean peninsula. All in all, Davutoglu is a very devious, dangerous and ruthless man.
Davutoglu was always considered Erdogan's gray cardinal, with practically unlimited powers. Some even considered him the actual puppeteer, while Erdogan played second fiddle (read all about Erdogan-Davutoglu symbiosis and problems in ESR7!). Several months ago Davutoglu was suddenly fired by Erdogan after his return from the USA. Some suggest Davutoglu resigned of his own volition after being warned in the US of the upcoming coup and desiring to be clean and out of harms way when the military is ready to pass the power to the new president, after removing Erdogan.
It also became known that in the US he met with exiled Turkish cleric under US protection Fethullah Gülen - Erdogan's mortal enemy. Whether he resigned or was indeed fired, Davutoglu overstepped many boundaries. It is very plausible that Erdogan found out of Davutoglu's Gülen visit and decided he couldn't work with him any more.
However, it's even more possible that Erdogan actually wanted the irritant of Davutoglu out of the way in order to begin the process of reconciliation with Russia. The fact that Davutoglu may have been disloyal could be an aggravating factor.
Regardless of how far Davutoglu's disloyalty went, one thing is interesting. Several days ago now ex-PM Davutoglu suddenly came out with admission that he was the one who gave order to shoot down Su24. If you recall, he already said that previously. It appears Erdogan has made him come out with this statement again, in order to be deemed clean for the meeting with Putin. Was Davutoglu threatened, or did he do it simply because his dear ex-friend Erdogan asked him? My money is on the former.
The Elephant in the room:
TURKISH MILITARY COUP & WHY IT FAILED
TURKISH MILITARY COUP & WHY IT FAILED
Separating truth from fakes:
Who was behind the coup? Why was it poorly organized and why did it fail?
Why the fake of Erdogan fleeing and asking for asylum in EU was needed? What is this fake's source?
The real truth: how did Erdogan and rebels really act during the coup
Why did Putin warn Erdogan of the upcoming coup and how did Russians know?
Now we are getting to the very juice and substance of the whole convoluted situation.
There were lots of hoaxes and fake info dumps floating around during and after the Turkish coup. Most of it was deliberate, and done by CIA/US for a specific purpose. But of course, Erdogan's constant flip-flopping and the boy who cried wolves attitude made it easy for the hoaxes to take root and be believed.
First, answers to some frequently asked questions:
1. Did Erdogan organize the false flag coup in order to consolidate power in the country?
No, this was real military coup, but poorly organized for a good reason - more on that below. The relationship between the military and Turkish president has historically been strained. Coups happen in Turkey periodically; last two occurred around 1980 and 1990. Erdogan may not be the most pleasant man, who has created many enemies, but he does have support in the country and he does have a strained relationship with the military. He did a number of purges in mid-2000s, but of course the army is still not fully his, although not as powerful as it used to be.
The clincher is that the previous coups were organized by the US/CIA. Turkish army, being a member of NATO and the 2nd best in the alliance after American army, is beholden to the US. This makes it an alien force and a very dangerous fifth column within Turkey for any sovereignty-minded leader.
It would have been impossible for Erdogan to organize a coup within the army for that reason. He simply didn't have enough support and clout to do so. But even if he held any power over the army at all, another logical reason Erdogan couldn't have organized the coup is this. Army officers are held in very high regard in Turkey. And Turks, being Middle Easterners, are very prideful. What Turkish colonel or general in his right mind would forsake his career, go to jail, become a pariah in his country by organizing a fake coup just to please Erdogan? What if these people were manipulated and didn't know Erdogan was behind it? As I said, CIA tentacles are all over the place in Turkey and it would have been impossible for them not to figure it out if the coup was incited from Erdogan's side.
The coup was real and it changed the balance of power in the region, but decidedly NOT the way its masterminds intended.
2. Why was the coup so poorly organized and why did it fail? The reason is: US made Turkish generals rush and come out before the coup was fully prepared. This is why actions of the military seemed erratic and their numbers were not as numerous as could have been.
Why did they have to rush? The answer to that question below and it has to do with Erdogan's making up with Russia and meeting with Putin.
Another reason the coup failed was that it turned out Erdogan did a good job with his purges and there were fewer army members willing to support the coup than was anticipated. Therefore, it was only one faction in the army that rose, making it difficult to succeed.
The US plan was to start a Kiev Maidan 2 scenario in Turkey; instead, they managed to play into Erdogan's hands. Huge miscalculation on both CIA and Turkish military part. But If US thought no one was paying attention to Ukraine's disaster; that they would be able to get away with Maidan 2 elsewhere - they were in for a rude awakening. The world did get the message.
3. Did Erdogan really flee the country and did he really ask for asylum in Germany? No, that never happened. This was a hoax and targeted info dump by CIA. The hoax originated in the US/CIA, as confirmed by Julian Assange/Wikileaks on August 3, 2016.
Why was such hoax necessary? What did it achieve? If you recall, the hoax that Erdogan fled the country and was seeking German asylum appeared and spread like wildfire in the very beginning of the coup. Here is why it was needed: it gave the rebels a boost of false hope that they could succeed. Therefore, it kept them going, which is what US needed. If not for this message, they could have easily chickened out. If Erdogan fled, then they were in the right and there would be no resistance - they could confidently go all the way to victory. The organizers hoped that the momentum generated would be enough to finish what they started.
This is what happened in Ukraine: Yanukovich recalled special forces, fled Kiev and that emboldened the Maidan, giving it the needed boost, resulting in the final coup.
But Erdogan isn't Yanukovich and that's why Turkey is still intact.
In reality, US did a huge disservice to the Turkish military by spreading such falsehood. This allowed Erdogan time to regroup unnoticed. When he appeared on TV and called on citizens to come out and resist, when he later appeared in person in Ankara, he surprised the coup and gave a boost to his followers. It was gross miscalculation on top of miscalculation for US and rebels.
4. Was Erdogan's enemy Fetullah Gulen residing in Pennsylvania really behind the coup? He was an inspiration - yes. He probably wasn't the real organizer, but his name was definitely, with his blessing, used as a boost. The organizers, aka, CIA, didn't need the elderly Gulen to do anything, except get them in touch with the right people. Gulen is known to work closely with CIA, and he is a major contributor to Hillary Clinton campaign.
Will US extradite Gulen upon Erdogan's insistence, in order to bribe him into letting US military stay at Turkish NATO bases? No, US won't. That would really lose them allies, especially in the Middle East. US will try to bribe Erdogan in some other way. They'll also try to remove him again.
How and why Erdogan and Russia made up
Erdogan finally understood that US was stringing him and his country along after he discovered that US was arming his enemies, the Kurds in Syria. These US weapons seeped back into Turkey, where they were used to fight against him.
Ever since the Su24 downing incident, Erdogan made multiple and persistent attempts to communicate with Putin (read more on that below). But US behavior with the Kurds was the last straw. Erdogan decided that it was time for a change.
Another, extremely important reason for the seemingly sudden turnaround was the worsening economic situation in the country. Russian bans and sanctions did a lot more damage to Turkish economy than Erdogan and his cronies anticipated. Meanwhile, it was clear that EU wasn't planning on doling out the entire 6 bln euros they promised, while US was playing its own double game. The illegal ISIS oil revenue dried up after Russians bombed ISIS rigs and oil truck caravans to Turkey; Qatar and Saudis weren't in a rush to reimburse Turkey for the training of new terrorists - they were busy whisking away the most prized militants from Syria, while leaving the rest to die. The Syria gig was winding down.
At the same time, due to terror acts and civil war near Turkish border, coupled with EU crisis, Turkish tourism and real estate dried up. It weren't only Russians who left. Brits and Germans, very active in Turkish resorts, also quit.
The EU wasn't in a rush to accept Turkey into EU. Instead, German parliament made an unfriendly move: it finally recognized the Armenian genocide by Turkey. This constituted an additional affront and loss of face for Erdogan. Erdogan started feeling like he was left without any friends.
He did what he dreaded doing: wrote a public letter to Putin with apology for the Su24 incident and promise to do whatever was necessary to help restore good relations with Russia. The letter was immidiately published on the Kremlin site. While vague, a promise to do 'whatever necessary' means that Erdogan is ready to fulfill the requirements Putin articulated, namely apology, restitution and compensation to pilot's family. It is interesting that the letter was downplayed by Erdogan's government, saying it wasn't an apology but an expression of regret. As I mentioned, in the Middle East apologies are just not done and it was clear Erdogan was desperate not to appear weak. But that was still enough for him to lose some of his tough reputation. Consequently, this act of good will emboldened Turkish military to start the coup, convincing some of them that Erdogan was spineless and would be easy enough to topple.
Putin responded to Erdogan's letter with a phone conversation, their first communication since fall of 2015. Then Erdogan's visit to Russia to speak with Putin in person was announced. The meeting was scheduled for August 9 in St. Petersburg. In Russia, there was lots of criticism towards Putin: how come he agreed to receive Erdogan so quickly and how come he forgave the death of the Russian pilot so easily? Erdogan cannot be trusted, said the critics.
In geopolitics and global chess game there are slightly different rules than in relations with one's bad neighbors. A country usually has to keep up relations with bad or untrustworthy neighbor as counterweight to a worse neighbor, or to balance out an even worse situation. There's no question Erdogan isn't the nicest person and best partner. But stakes are too high.
Here is how the geopolitical game is played: Turkey is a part of NATO. NATO is advancing to Russian borders, threatening Russia. If Turkey acts up against NATO bases on its territory and against US as the main NATO beneficiary, then NATO is automatically weakened and distracted. By weakening NATO in Turkey, it's weakened near Russian borders, as well.
Further, there is no question that US organized the downing of Su24 by Turkey to put a rift between Russia and Erdogan. Therefore, if US benefits from Russia and Turkey being enemies, Russia needs to do the opposite and make up with Turkey. If US made a major blooper resulting in a loss of its grip on Erdogan and Turkey, Russia needs to grab this chance. And Putin did.
Therefore, Erdogan's visit was a new brilliant move by Putin, the chess master.
And that's when USA lost it.
How Turkish coup really happened
Erdogan was becoming too bold and audacious with his NATO, US and EU allies. The Turks refused to allow German parliamentarians into NATO base to visit German troops. Then, Erdogan threatened to boot out US troops from its bases, and instead let Russian jets in.
The military coup was in preparation in Turkey since 2015. When US realized that Erdogan was about to re-form his strategic alliance with Russia - something they worked so hard to destroy - the coup plan was still raw. But Erdogan's threats were serious: if US military was indeed booted out, it would mean a major loss, adversely affecting US operations in Syria, Libya, Afghanistan and Iraq. But the biggest of all would be the loss of capacity to spy on Russia from the south and sabotage Russia within Black Sea.
US could not allow Erdogan to meet with Putin. Consequently, they had rushed the military into this half-baked coup, trying to make it happen while Turkish president was on vacation, banking on the element of surprise. Erdogan was spending time at a Turkish resort when the coup began. Erdogan knew about the coup being in the works, but because the timetable was moved up, he didn't know it already begun.
However, Russian radio-electronic surveillance at the Khmeimim Air Base in Syria caught the rebels' communication about the coup and about the army coming to arrest Erdogan. Russian military sent the message to Putin, asking for permission to contact Erdogan. Putin authorized it and Russians communicated the info to the vacationing Erdogan, who managed to escape with fifteen minutes to spare before they came for him. He was being prepared for the role of Gaddafi or Saddam, that was certain. After his miraculous escape, Erdogan didn't flee to Europe. On the contrary, he went on TV, wherever a station was still loyal to him, and called on citizens to come out and resist. Then he flew to Ankara, where he rallied loyal troops and citizens. Once he showed up, the coup became half-heartened and quickly wound down. The rebels deflated from his presence, having been initially told that he fled.
It turned out that many people heard Erdogan's call. My intel says that many of those who came out on streets were Turkish nationalists, who were anti-US and anti-NATO. Another significant contingent to resist the coup were Syrian refugees. Over 200 of these people were killed during the coup.
Many say that the coup was staged because it gave Erdogan an opportunity to purge the army, judiciary, MSM and government. As I explained above, there is no chance the coup was staged. But Erdogan smartly seized the opportunity after his adversaries' mistake.
Arrests and firing of ten thousand officers (regular soldiers were mostly let go), journalists, professors and lawyers too place. Erdogan's troops surrounded Incirilic NATO Air Base and cut off power. They didn't let anyone in or out, claiming there were rebels hiding inside. Eventually, the base was unblocked, but Erdogan continues threatening to boot US military out of the country.
Later, a huge fire began near the Incirilic Air Base, which engulfed parts of the base, threatening arms depot, and a large area around it. Turkey claimed the fire that destroyed 50 hectares of land and threatened to destroy the major NATO base's arms depot was 'set by accident by playing children in nearby town.' Per my observation, fire fighters deliberately delayed their arrival and 'fought the fire' in such a way that it would directly threaten the base. In a very Middle Eastern way, it was a clear hint to US and NATO from Erdogan.
Erdogan was becoming too bold and audacious with his NATO, US and EU allies. The Turks refused to allow German parliamentarians into NATO base to visit German troops. Then, Erdogan threatened to boot out US troops from its bases, and instead let Russian jets in.
The military coup was in preparation in Turkey since 2015. When US realized that Erdogan was about to re-form his strategic alliance with Russia - something they worked so hard to destroy - the coup plan was still raw. But Erdogan's threats were serious: if US military was indeed booted out, it would mean a major loss, adversely affecting US operations in Syria, Libya, Afghanistan and Iraq. But the biggest of all would be the loss of capacity to spy on Russia from the south and sabotage Russia within Black Sea.
US could not allow Erdogan to meet with Putin. Consequently, they had rushed the military into this half-baked coup, trying to make it happen while Turkish president was on vacation, banking on the element of surprise. Erdogan was spending time at a Turkish resort when the coup began. Erdogan knew about the coup being in the works, but because the timetable was moved up, he didn't know it already begun.
However, Russian radio-electronic surveillance at the Khmeimim Air Base in Syria caught the rebels' communication about the coup and about the army coming to arrest Erdogan. Russian military sent the message to Putin, asking for permission to contact Erdogan. Putin authorized it and Russians communicated the info to the vacationing Erdogan, who managed to escape with fifteen minutes to spare before they came for him. He was being prepared for the role of Gaddafi or Saddam, that was certain. After his miraculous escape, Erdogan didn't flee to Europe. On the contrary, he went on TV, wherever a station was still loyal to him, and called on citizens to come out and resist. Then he flew to Ankara, where he rallied loyal troops and citizens. Once he showed up, the coup became half-heartened and quickly wound down. The rebels deflated from his presence, having been initially told that he fled.
It turned out that many people heard Erdogan's call. My intel says that many of those who came out on streets were Turkish nationalists, who were anti-US and anti-NATO. Another significant contingent to resist the coup were Syrian refugees. Over 200 of these people were killed during the coup.
Many say that the coup was staged because it gave Erdogan an opportunity to purge the army, judiciary, MSM and government. As I explained above, there is no chance the coup was staged. But Erdogan smartly seized the opportunity after his adversaries' mistake.
Arrests and firing of ten thousand officers (regular soldiers were mostly let go), journalists, professors and lawyers too place. Erdogan's troops surrounded Incirilic NATO Air Base and cut off power. They didn't let anyone in or out, claiming there were rebels hiding inside. Eventually, the base was unblocked, but Erdogan continues threatening to boot US military out of the country.
Later, a huge fire began near the Incirilic Air Base, which engulfed parts of the base, threatening arms depot, and a large area around it. Turkey claimed the fire that destroyed 50 hectares of land and threatened to destroy the major NATO base's arms depot was 'set by accident by playing children in nearby town.' Per my observation, fire fighters deliberately delayed their arrival and 'fought the fire' in such a way that it would directly threaten the base. In a very Middle Eastern way, it was a clear hint to US and NATO from Erdogan.
TURKEY vs. US & NATO
Does Erdogan have the nerve to boot out US, or is it just for show?
Is Erdogan ready to ditch NATO and join Russian alliance?
Burning questions: Why is Erdogan so intent on purging the military?
Why does he want to boot US military out of Turkish bases?
Turkish army was always powerful. With frightening regularity it executed military coups to replace a previous uncomfortable leader, who didn't do what the army thought he should do. Usually it would be choked up to said leader's dictatorial tendencies. Then a new, more convenient leader would be installed, and the country would live peacefully again.
But who is pulling the army's strings when such coups start? The answer to this question is at the very heart of the issue! It turns out that Turkish army is beholden to the US and CIA. The reason for this is pretty obvious: Turkey is a part of NATO, incidentally, with second largest, best trained and equipped NATO army after the US army. Turkey is full of US/NATO bases. Who do you think trains and equips Turkish army? It's the US. Many Turkish generals and officers went to US military schools, where they would be recruited by CIA in exchange for promotions and other compensation. Many Turks served together with Americans at joint NATO bases. Who will they hold allegiance to? Turkish president, who's seen by them as a temporary convenient stooge? Or to their real bosses?
Erdogan is a former military. He knows exactly what's going on in the army. Unsurprisingly, starting in mid-2000s, he began the army purges, when disloyal to him officers were replaced, or sent to jail. He succeeded only partially. Of course, he was trying to be careful enough with his purges. It never does any good to suddenly completely behead the army: the ability of the state to defend itself becomes severely compromised. For example, one of the side effects of the relative weakening of the Turkish army in recent years has become the escalating civil war with the Kurds. However, after the failed coup of July, 2016 Erdogan has no choice but to purge the army. So far, over 10,000 officers were arrested, plus judiciary, journalists and professors - a total of 65,000 people.
To help you understand the scope of the event, Stalin never allowed himself to go this far. After the General Tukhachevsky conspiracy funded from abroad, thousands of officers were arrested, but many were later let go and re-instated. However, for Turkey such numbers are nothing, apparently. During the 1980 military coup, over 300,000 people were arrested.
Erdogan now has firm intel, some of which comes from Russia and some from rebels' interrogations, that US is behind the coup and that his army answers to their masters from across the Atlantic, not to their national leader. What president would keep such army?
Conclusion: the coup delivered a convenient opportunity for Erdogan to strengthen his personal power in his country.
However, at the same time, the coup weakened Turkey itself, as well as the Turkish army. Turkey should expect a continuation of the Kurdish unrest, and more terrorist acts, while struggling to rebuild Turkish defenses.
Here's an interesting moment! My prediction: one of the deals Erdogan will make with Putin is to send Turkish officers for training to Russia, instead of the US. This will additionally distance Turkey from US and NATO, putting a wedge between them, while strengthening Russia.
Will Turkey leave NATO? Short-term and long-term predictions
Short-term a lot depends on Erdogan's negotiations with Putin. He'll try to bargain that card to his advantage, but after Erdogan's blooper with Su24 and Russian sanctions, Putin has too many aces. I'm sure negotiations will be tough. Such multi-hour marathon negotiations are very typical of the EARTH SHIFT reality we live in. However, overall, Erdogan's position is greatly weakened compared to his position just a year ago.
Russia will be able to re-negotiate previous deals on much more favorable conditions. Additionally, from Russia's perspective, agreeing to Turkey getting out of NATO right this moment is tantamount to carrying Turkey on Russia's shoulders. The situation is a bit similar to Ukraine. Turkish economy is in bad condition and Turkey has been selling gold (good indication of dire financial straits). It's in the middle of a civil war and US/NATO will surely retaliate, should Russia decide to help Turkey leave NATO. Less than 2 years before presidential elections Russia can't afford that. Therefore, Russia won't agree to Turkey's leaving NATO outright at this time. It's actually much better to have Turkey inside the Western alliance, while its allegiance lies with Russia. A thorn in NATO's side, so to speak. Actually, back in 2014-15 I predicted that Russia would want to keep Erdogan at the helm of Turkey, and keep Turkey unified. This is exactly what Russia is doing today.
What will happen longer-term? The same as everywhere else. US Empire will weaken, its grip on power and on its vassals will loosen and eventually NATO will have to disband. The wise leaders, who also aren't tied down by archaic alliances, will re-orient themselves easier for the new reality, leaving those, who are stuck in NATO and EU, behind. There is an advantage to being a part of a strong alliance when it's on its way up, but when it starts plummeting into abyss, those who are tied up with it, go down with it.
Will Turkey be one of those who untangles itself and re-orients on time? Very possibly. US/NATO/various civil internal conflicts won't leave Turkey alone and it will be tough to keep peace and integrity of the country. However, so far Erdogan proved himself to be not exactly a good and smart leader, but a very tough, sly and lucky leader, who also can re-orient himself flexibly. And perhaps, this is what his country needs. As I said back in 2014-15, there is really no alternative to Erdogan. Davutoglu would only work if Turkey became a complete colony of the West. This won't happen; as we've seen from recent events, Turkish people crave more sovereignty and want American bases out. For that reason, Erdogan's support will be very good. After the failed coup, sympathy towards him in the country is high. He is perceived as a victim of USA's, NATO's and army's treachery. When Erdogan makes up with Russia (and this will happen on August 9 for sure), his rating will go up even more.
PUTIN'S MASTER CHESS
Just several months ago Putin accused Turkey of having stabbed Russia in the back. But on August 9, 2016 Erdogan will be his guest in St. Petersburg.
Did Russia forgive Su24 downing? Why is Erdogan coming to meet Putin?
Just several months ago Putin accused Turkey of having stabbed Russia in the back. But on August 9, 2016 Erdogan will be his guest in St. Petersburg.
Did Russia forgive Su24 downing? Why is Erdogan coming to meet Putin?
Many Russians met the news of Erdogan's visit with confusion and frustration. But what about Su24? What about the slain pilot and the unfriendly to Russia moves and statements Erdogan made since? Similar sentiment of confusion and disbelief seems to be echoed all over the world by Russia's friends and enemies - for different reasons.
The emotions are a human thing, and they are fine and even necessary in everyday human interactions. But if Putin and Lavrov conducted Russian affairs in the same way, there would be no country left for future generations. Global politics and international relations don't work this way. The most important thing to understand is that as a result of Erdogan being put in a tight spot by his own actions and by the actions of foreign powers, Russia is now in the position to renegotiate prior deals on much more favorable conditions. New deals, favorable to Russia, can also be added.
Erdogan is coming to bow to Tzar Putin:
Complete list of reasons why Erdogan is coming to Russia
1. As a result of the failed coup Erdogan's personal power in Turkey has increased. This allows him to act more freely. Making up with Russia was something ex-PM Davutoglu and Turkish army, beholden to the US/CIA, wouldn't let him do. Now that Davutoglu is out of the picture and the new PM is Erdogan's relative, plus the coup has failed, Erdogan can act freely based on his own agenda. Therefore, we can assume that making up with Russia is number 1 on his priority list.
2. While Erdogan's personal power has consolidated, Turkey as a country has weakened internally. Due to army purges, the Kurdish civil war may accelerate. I predicted in 2015 that once Russia withdraws Erdogan's support as a result of Su24 downing, Erdogan may not last 2-3 years in his post. This began materializing right away: Kurdish protests and civil was escalated, more terrorist acts ensued, all this culminating in the military coup. Erdogan, in all appearances, should have been gone by now. However, Erdogan has proven to be a much more shrewd and flexible a leader than many anticipated. He understood early on that he got himself and his country in a bad spot and began making clandestine attempts to seek Putin's audience.
He enlisted Kazakh president Nazarbayev as peace broker, and he even attempted to enlist Belarus' Lukashenko in the same role - with lesser success. Putin refused to talk to Erdogan for months; the conditions for resuming communications remained: public apology and restitution. Erdogan remained persistent; at one of the international events he was even seen stalking Putin near bathroom.
Meanwhile, fellow Muslim Nazarbayev served as a secret bridge, who passed on certain communications. Incidentally, in ESR9: Attack on Kazakhstan we discussed how and why one of the strongest of all ex-Soviet republics, Kazakhstan, was chosen as the unlikely target to try undermining EAEU. There is no doubt in my mind that one of the reasons was revenge for Nazarbayev's successful peace brokering between Russia and Turkey.
Rest assured that Erdogan would have been much bolder in his pursuit of Putin, if he could. What stopped him was the fact that his power in the country was much more unstable than he portrayed it to be. It was already clear that Davutoglu was foreign agent, and so were the army top bras. Erdogan knew that a coup was being prepared, he just didn't know when. Erdogan needed to slowly shift the situation in the country sufficiently, so he could restore relations with Russia without being killed in the process. The warning of Gaddafi loomed, as did the fate of Yanukovich who miscalculated everything, from the West and his own party's loyalty to his countrymen. The first move in this direction was the firing of Davutoglu, and instead, the installment of his relative as PM. This was one of the messages for Putin - and I see that it was understood in Moscow.
I am also convinced that the firing of Davutoglu was at least in part a secret Russian demand in order to resume talks. Here is the reason why: Davutoglu, as mentioned above, is ethnic Crimean Tartar. But politically, in addition to being a EU/US stooge, he was personally in charge of building up and supporting Mejlis (Crimean Tartar Islamist terrorist organization, responsible for the food and energy blockade of Crimea, including the power outage that left 2.5 mln people without power). Erdogan for years fancied himself as the sultan of the resurrected Ottoman Empire. As part of the New Ottoman Empire project Davutoglu sold him the 'return of Crimea' project. I wrote previously on FT that US planned to turn Crimea into its mega military/naval base. But first, Ukraine junta planned to sell Crimea to Turkey, under whose umbrella NATO/US military bases would be proliferated.
None of these plans succeeded due to Russia's timely interference and Crimean referendum to re-join Russia. Davutoglu was in charge of all these projects, including the Crimean blockade and inciting of inter-confessional/ inter-ethnic violence. He failed to succeed in either, despite millions in infusions into Mejlis coffers and generous salaries for militants. Erdogan understood that Davutoglu failed at securing him the sultan's crown and the crown jewel of Crimea. Turkey was weakening due to many failed projects, tanking economy and civil war, while Russia's international position was getting stronger, including in Erdogan's own backyard. Being a typical Middle Eastern ruler, he flip-flopped and decided that it was much better to make peace with Russia.
One of the things Erdogan will be trying to achieve is convince Moscow to stop supporting the Kurds. I don't think this will ever happen after Erogan showed his true colors, but what Russia can do is tone it down a bit.
Meanwhile, Turkish economic situation demands serious intervention. In the past Erdogan and Davutoglu hoped that EU would boost Turkish economy via bribes for keeping refugees in Turkey, by swift membership for Turkey in the EU, and consequent investments. But it's clear that it won't happen. Therefore, in order to survive, Turkey desperately needs to restore trade with Russia.
The emotions are a human thing, and they are fine and even necessary in everyday human interactions. But if Putin and Lavrov conducted Russian affairs in the same way, there would be no country left for future generations. Global politics and international relations don't work this way. The most important thing to understand is that as a result of Erdogan being put in a tight spot by his own actions and by the actions of foreign powers, Russia is now in the position to renegotiate prior deals on much more favorable conditions. New deals, favorable to Russia, can also be added.
Erdogan is coming to bow to Tzar Putin:
Complete list of reasons why Erdogan is coming to Russia
1. As a result of the failed coup Erdogan's personal power in Turkey has increased. This allows him to act more freely. Making up with Russia was something ex-PM Davutoglu and Turkish army, beholden to the US/CIA, wouldn't let him do. Now that Davutoglu is out of the picture and the new PM is Erdogan's relative, plus the coup has failed, Erdogan can act freely based on his own agenda. Therefore, we can assume that making up with Russia is number 1 on his priority list.
2. While Erdogan's personal power has consolidated, Turkey as a country has weakened internally. Due to army purges, the Kurdish civil war may accelerate. I predicted in 2015 that once Russia withdraws Erdogan's support as a result of Su24 downing, Erdogan may not last 2-3 years in his post. This began materializing right away: Kurdish protests and civil was escalated, more terrorist acts ensued, all this culminating in the military coup. Erdogan, in all appearances, should have been gone by now. However, Erdogan has proven to be a much more shrewd and flexible a leader than many anticipated. He understood early on that he got himself and his country in a bad spot and began making clandestine attempts to seek Putin's audience.
He enlisted Kazakh president Nazarbayev as peace broker, and he even attempted to enlist Belarus' Lukashenko in the same role - with lesser success. Putin refused to talk to Erdogan for months; the conditions for resuming communications remained: public apology and restitution. Erdogan remained persistent; at one of the international events he was even seen stalking Putin near bathroom.
Meanwhile, fellow Muslim Nazarbayev served as a secret bridge, who passed on certain communications. Incidentally, in ESR9: Attack on Kazakhstan we discussed how and why one of the strongest of all ex-Soviet republics, Kazakhstan, was chosen as the unlikely target to try undermining EAEU. There is no doubt in my mind that one of the reasons was revenge for Nazarbayev's successful peace brokering between Russia and Turkey.
Rest assured that Erdogan would have been much bolder in his pursuit of Putin, if he could. What stopped him was the fact that his power in the country was much more unstable than he portrayed it to be. It was already clear that Davutoglu was foreign agent, and so were the army top bras. Erdogan knew that a coup was being prepared, he just didn't know when. Erdogan needed to slowly shift the situation in the country sufficiently, so he could restore relations with Russia without being killed in the process. The warning of Gaddafi loomed, as did the fate of Yanukovich who miscalculated everything, from the West and his own party's loyalty to his countrymen. The first move in this direction was the firing of Davutoglu, and instead, the installment of his relative as PM. This was one of the messages for Putin - and I see that it was understood in Moscow.
I am also convinced that the firing of Davutoglu was at least in part a secret Russian demand in order to resume talks. Here is the reason why: Davutoglu, as mentioned above, is ethnic Crimean Tartar. But politically, in addition to being a EU/US stooge, he was personally in charge of building up and supporting Mejlis (Crimean Tartar Islamist terrorist organization, responsible for the food and energy blockade of Crimea, including the power outage that left 2.5 mln people without power). Erdogan for years fancied himself as the sultan of the resurrected Ottoman Empire. As part of the New Ottoman Empire project Davutoglu sold him the 'return of Crimea' project. I wrote previously on FT that US planned to turn Crimea into its mega military/naval base. But first, Ukraine junta planned to sell Crimea to Turkey, under whose umbrella NATO/US military bases would be proliferated.
None of these plans succeeded due to Russia's timely interference and Crimean referendum to re-join Russia. Davutoglu was in charge of all these projects, including the Crimean blockade and inciting of inter-confessional/ inter-ethnic violence. He failed to succeed in either, despite millions in infusions into Mejlis coffers and generous salaries for militants. Erdogan understood that Davutoglu failed at securing him the sultan's crown and the crown jewel of Crimea. Turkey was weakening due to many failed projects, tanking economy and civil war, while Russia's international position was getting stronger, including in Erdogan's own backyard. Being a typical Middle Eastern ruler, he flip-flopped and decided that it was much better to make peace with Russia.
One of the things Erdogan will be trying to achieve is convince Moscow to stop supporting the Kurds. I don't think this will ever happen after Erogan showed his true colors, but what Russia can do is tone it down a bit.
Meanwhile, Turkish economic situation demands serious intervention. In the past Erdogan and Davutoglu hoped that EU would boost Turkish economy via bribes for keeping refugees in Turkey, by swift membership for Turkey in the EU, and consequent investments. But it's clear that it won't happen. Therefore, in order to survive, Turkey desperately needs to restore trade with Russia.
Global Geopolitical Chess Board, PR Games & Signs
Cast of characters: (Edgogan/Turkey, Putin/Russia, Azerbaijan/Caucasus, Iran, EU, US)
August 8, 2016: latest Lada Ray intel and analysis
Cast of characters: (Edgogan/Turkey, Putin/Russia, Azerbaijan/Caucasus, Iran, EU, US)
August 8, 2016: latest Lada Ray intel and analysis
Olive branches, messages and signs! In preparation for Erdogan's visit to Russia, the following activity took place on August 8, one day before Erdogan's meeting with Putin.
1. August 8: a truly massive rally in support of Erdogan took place in Istanbul. RT VIDEO LINK. Note, not the capital, Ankara, but Istanbul. This has especial significance because it is actually Istanbul that is the prized possession of Turkey; it is Istanbul that controls the straits and it is Istanbul (former Constantinople, ex-seat of Orthodoxy) that Russia and Greece dispute.
Via this mass rally Erdogan is sending two messages to two different forces. On one hand this mass rally is a loud and clear positive signal to Russia, which reads: Turkish people are behind their president as he goes to St. Petersburg to make up with Putin and Russia. On the other hand, the message is for the US/EU/NATO: my people are behind me in whatever I do, so don't try another coup while I am in Russia because they'll be watching.
2. Olive branch and appeasement: On August 8 Erdogan officially announced that 'the man responsible for killing Russian pilot is in jail, and that investigation continues into the 'irregular' response to the Su24 incident. Erdogan announced this today, during his pre-visit interview: LINK (Rus).
3. In the same interview Erdogan stressed that he valued Putin's personal call and swift response to the Turkish coup, stressing that he expected all world leaders to condemn the coup. Putin called almost immediately to express his support, said Erdogan: LINK (Rus).
4. Last but not least, on August 8 Erdogan announces that Turkey is ready to immediately resume construction of Turkish Stream: LINK (Rus).
Why US needed to sabotage South Stream and Turkish Stream - how it all happened
The extreme importance of this project is underscored by the sequence of past events:
Let's recall that Erdogan and Putin agreed on Turkish Stream construction in 2014-2015. This happened after US managed to sabotage South Stream through Bulgaria into Southern and Central Europe. This gas pipeline to deliver Russian gas bypassing Ukraine would have alleviated the pressure from Ukraine, deeming it useless for the US. As a result of Ukraine losing its importance as the Russian gas transiter, Kiev would lose its leverage over Russia and EU, while US would lose much of its leverage over Ukraine. Project 'Ukraine = anti-Russia on Russia's borders' would be harder to maintain and it would be closed. Let's recall that both US and Canada (two main exporters of shale gas based on harmful fracking) benefit from sabotaging Russian gas transit to EU. South Stream was eagerly awaited by Greece, Italy, Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia, Hungary and Austria, as well as Romania, Czechia and Slovakia. Key investors were Italy and Austria. Bulgaria's refusal (after US pressure) to host the pipeline through its territory caused big disappointment. Hope came back after Russia and Turkey agreed on Turkish Stream, to continue into Greece via land pipes or via Turkish ports by sea.
Months after the Turkish Stream agreement was reached, the Syria war acceleration was orchestrated by the US and its vassals (Qatar, Saudis, Canada, Australia, UK, etc). US delivered weapons 'by mistake' to ISIS, $500 million was spent on training 'moderate opposition,' which immediately defected to ISIS-Daesh/Al Nusra. At the same time, US jets miraculously managed to miss their targets, while ISIS continued expanding. Qatar/Saudis invested billions into ISIS infrastructure and lured Turkey with lucrative deals to train and rehab militants on its territory. Moreover, Turkey was offered profitable trade in stolen by ISIS oil, artifacts and human organs.
All this was part of the move to compromise Turkey and force Russia and Turkey to break up in order to prevent two things:
1. Turkish Stream being built. This would create a situation when Southern and Central Europe would become a lot more sovereign from the US/EU, in turn leading to accelerated breakup of EU and further weakening of US Empire.
2. Turkey getting close to Russia, which would result in eventual NATO breakup, weakening of the Western NWO and strengthening of Russia.
In other words, both would lead to the same outcome: weakening of the US Empire, strengthening of Russia and acceleration of the Earth Shift.
Russia judged correctly that if allowed to get out of hand, Syrian escalation would eventually engulf the entire Middle East, spread to Central Asia and Caucasus and from there, to Russia. The Syrian escalation forced Russia to intervene. Russian Airforce was met with stellar success, quickly proving that US wasn't fighting, but aiding terrorists. ISIS territory began shrinking for the first time.
This was getting dangerous for the US. Shortly after, the shooting down of the Russian Su24 was orchestrated. In this regard, I believe that Erdogan actually did not give order to shoot down Russian jet and that he was played into initially taking the responsibility. After understanding how he was played, he began seeking ways to communicate with Putin, but was repeatedly denied.
Can Erdogan be trusted?
All the above are clear messages. Erdogan goes out of his way to stress that he was not responsible for the downing of the Russian jet and that he will do what it takes to make it right. These moves also make it more easy and more palatable for Russians to swallow his very belated apology. In fact, he is trying to make it as easy as possible for Putin and for Russia to reconcile with him after what happened. Whether we believe his sincerity or not is a different story.
As I said many times before, Turkey and Erdogan cannot be trusted fully at any time. However, in this situation the geopolitical gain from Erdogan making up with Russia is so huge that it outweighs any drawbacks. Russia absolutely has to take this chance and make the most out if it.
Economic and geopolitical benefits from making up, for Turkey and Russia
Turkey getting back into Russia's graces is a huge boost for Turkish economy. It is also a boost for Russia's mega-projects, including Turkish/South Stream, new electric power plant construction and Lukoil oil consortium with Turkey. Re-setting Russian air traffic and tourism may be a lot tougher, due to instability.
But it's the geopolitical benefits that are the big prize!
1. By having Turkey in her corner, Russia is automatically strengthened. She increases her clout both in the Middle East and globally.
2. Syria war will be won easier: one of the major Putin-Erdogan negotiations points will be Turkey closing its borders to ISIS supply routes. Once food, money and arms supplies through Turkey dry up, ISIS will run out of steam so much faster.
3. US Empire is automatically weakened.
4. NATO is automatically weakened. Turkey's further actions will continue sabotaging NATO, such as closing down or limiting NATO bases, banning Western politicians from entry, limiting US military activity in the Middle East/Syria and navy activity around Black Sea. All in all, Turkey's attitude will eventually help the dismemberment of NATO (this will take some time).
No question about it: US/NATO won't leave Turkey alone that easily. And certainly Russia won't be left alone. US will try to retaliate at all cost. The best bet for Turkey is to be constantly on high alert.
Turkey also has a very solid leverage against the US: NATO bases with lots of US military and tons of weapons stored in them. In fact, Turkey houses one of the biggest stockpiles of US weapons in the world. Turkey can blackmail US and EU. Turkey can also close Black Sea Straits. Turkey/Ottomans were used for centuries to play Russia vs. West by using the area's strategic location and natural geopolitical leverage. That's why Turkey can never be fully trusted. But in this situation, US proved to be such rotten ally that Erdogan has no choice but to get back in Russia's graces. Otherwise, the next coup will do him in.
Therefore, Russia has to be extremely careful and very pragmatic. Negotiations have to be tough and measured. Turkey can never be allowed to become 'best friend' again. Keep that distance, but make sure it's beneficial to Turkey to be in the Russian corner.
Consequently: expect Turkey to continue vacillating and playing both sides; expect US to continue sabotage and coup/war/terror act attempts. But the benefit of Turkey getting back into the Russian fold is so huge that this round definitely goes to Russia. As I predicted in 2014-15: Turkish Stream is a fully viable project that will go forward. When built, Turkish Stream will change the geopolitical reality of EU (especially Mediterranean, Central Europe) and of the Middle East.
It will relieve the pressure from Ukraine and force US to abandon Ukraine project, eventually causing the fall of the ukro-nazi junta and return of Ukraine to Russia.
Further, it'll put pressure on Germany to compete for Russian gas and build Nord Stream 2 as quickly as possible. Incidentally, Putin's August 8 meeting with Iran and Azerbaijan leaders, as you'll read below, is directly connected with all that. Here is an interesting possibility: Russia can easily, on moment's notice, form a consortium of gas producers, including Azerbaijan and Iran, as well as potentially Turkmenistan, and let them participate in Turkish Stream. This is a preliminary prediction - but as you know, my predictions usually come true, so watch for future events!
It is clear to me that US lost this round and ended up with egg on its face. Many more rounds to come, but it's a good start!
Why Germany wanted to sabotage South Stream and Turkish Stream
And for desert, here's what I think about Germany's role in Turkey. There was lots of low grumbling and certain unspoken hints, but unlike in the US case, not much was articulated.
In my view, the following happened behind the scenes. While seemingly neutral on the surface, I believe that Germany didn't want either South Stream or Turkish Stream being built. Germany couldn't say so outright and seem sabotaging fellow EU states' economies. Besides, Germany would appear anti-democratic, pro-monopoly and all those other bad things a nice neoliberal Western democracy is supposed to hate. Of course, in reality Western democracies are that only when it benefits them - otherwise, they are brutal colonial dictatorships in a well-camouflaged form. Germany wanted to keep its control over all of EU. Nord Stream gave it this opportunity, when Germany was the end beneficiary and sole distributor of Russian gas.
South Stream would have created a rival distributor in Italy and Austria. Turkish Stream will strengthen Turkey and Greece as new distributors. Southern and Central Europe will gain a lot more independence than Germany and Merkel would like them to have. They will get closer to Russia - another problem for Germany. Germany would rather have the rotting wound that is ukro-nazi Ukraine next to the EU in order to keep Russia down, its Central European vassals in line, and be sole beneficiary of Russian gas.
The sooner Southern and Central Europe understand how they are being played by Germany and Merkel, the better for them. EU is being held together by the wrong glue. More in ESR12: The Future of the EU.
Russia's messages before Putin-Erdogan meeting on August 9
I've said before that the grand chess game being played is multi-level and complex. Many messages and moves are being exchanged simultaneously by multiple parties. We must look at various, seemingly disconnected global events as part of one mega-game and we must draw on hidden parallels in order to truly understand what is happening in the world and where it's going. Without understanding the true roots and hidden connections of the events, our picture of the world won't be complete.
It has to be understood fully that the banning of the Russian Olympic and Paralympic teams from Rio 2016 Games was punishment for Russia's success in Crimea and Syria, for preventing latest color revolutions in Kazakhstan and Armenia (all about it in ESR9: Attack on Kazakhstan; Destabilizing Eurasian Union). Most recently, it is retaliation for Erdogan's turnaround. It is also punishment for the Russians warning Erdogan about the coup, thus saving his life and presidency. Even more broadly, it is punishment for Russia not shriveling up and dying under sanctions, but continuing to thrive and move forward.
With this background, what should Russia's counter-move be? Recall our discussion of how Olympics are traditionally used for geopolitical gain by the US/West. 1980 Moscow Olympics boycott; 2008 Beijing Olympics backlash and Georgia war during the Opening Ceremony; 2014 Sochi Olympics marred with Ukraine coup and ukro-nazi takeover; 2016 Rio Olympics Russian team ban and doping scandal, along with Dilma Rousseff impeachment, threatening the foundation of the BRICS.
First and foremost, Russia never did such despicable and aggressive things to other countries. But Putin's subtle, yet elegant move of inviting Erdogan during the Olympics is a very good counter-move. It's also a powerful message!
They want to destroy the BRICS? How about we take this opportunity to help destroy NATO! They want to put a wedge between EU and Russia, Ukraine and Russia? How about we create the wedge between US/NATO and Turkey! They want to bind Turkey to Qatar/Saudis/ISIS? How about we make Turkey work against them!
But Turkey is a wild card, and Erdogan has already proved it too many times before. Unfortunately, the pride and perceived success makes Erdogan and Turks blow up with undeserved pride, and then they attempt to dictate their conditions, thinking themselves more important than they really are. That's how Erdogan got himself in trouble with Russia and that's how he almost lost his life and country in the recent coup.
Therefore, Russia has sent Erdogan and Turkey a pre-visit message. On Augsut 8, 2016, one day before Erodgan's visit, Putin and Lavrov were in Azerbaijan, meeting with presidents and FMs of Azerbaijan and Iran.
During the meeting in Baku, the leaders discussed a new, promising three-country alliance being born. Infrastructure and development projects were discussed, called The North-South Corridor, including integrating energy grids of three countries, joint oil and energy projects, new transportation corridor construction, including rail road and bridge.
Why is this important?
1. Azerbaijan is an ex-Soviet republic, which historically/culturally is between Iran and Turkey, with Russian culture being one of the dominant layers. Azeri territory at one or another point in history was a part of Persia (Iran), Ottoman Empire (Turkey) and Russian Empire/USSR. Its independence is very recent and only dates back to 1991-92. In the past 20 or so years Turkey, using its local clout and influence among Muslims, sought to manipulate Azerbaijan for its benefit, including against Russia.
2. Turkey and Iran are historically at loggerheads. In fact, they are direct rivals, constantly vying for the leadership in the Middle East.
By meeting with Iranian and Azerbaijani presidents just hours before Erdogan, Putin has sent Erdogan three important messages:
1. Turkey shouldn't expect too many concessions from Russia during August 9 negotiations, because Russia has other strong allies in the region - Iran, first and foremost. In other words, Turkey should get in line.
2. Azerbaijan is distancing itself from Turkey in favor of closer ties with Russia and Iran. Iran's influence is used here productively by Russia. Russia is demonstrating that she won't allow Turkey to manipulate Azerbaijan as a pressure point against Russia any more.
3. This is also a demo for the Turks' benefit as to what they could look forward to as part of a productive alliance. In fact, it's a hint for Turkey to stop sulking and to join such alliance.
4. In the longer perspective, it is a move to separate Turkey from NATO, which automatically distances Turkey from the West, which in turn accelerates the break-up of NATO.
All in all, it's a good and clear message to Turkey and US!
It has to be understood fully that the banning of the Russian Olympic and Paralympic teams from Rio 2016 Games was punishment for Russia's success in Crimea and Syria, for preventing latest color revolutions in Kazakhstan and Armenia (all about it in ESR9: Attack on Kazakhstan; Destabilizing Eurasian Union). Most recently, it is retaliation for Erdogan's turnaround. It is also punishment for the Russians warning Erdogan about the coup, thus saving his life and presidency. Even more broadly, it is punishment for Russia not shriveling up and dying under sanctions, but continuing to thrive and move forward.
With this background, what should Russia's counter-move be? Recall our discussion of how Olympics are traditionally used for geopolitical gain by the US/West. 1980 Moscow Olympics boycott; 2008 Beijing Olympics backlash and Georgia war during the Opening Ceremony; 2014 Sochi Olympics marred with Ukraine coup and ukro-nazi takeover; 2016 Rio Olympics Russian team ban and doping scandal, along with Dilma Rousseff impeachment, threatening the foundation of the BRICS.
First and foremost, Russia never did such despicable and aggressive things to other countries. But Putin's subtle, yet elegant move of inviting Erdogan during the Olympics is a very good counter-move. It's also a powerful message!
They want to destroy the BRICS? How about we take this opportunity to help destroy NATO! They want to put a wedge between EU and Russia, Ukraine and Russia? How about we create the wedge between US/NATO and Turkey! They want to bind Turkey to Qatar/Saudis/ISIS? How about we make Turkey work against them!
But Turkey is a wild card, and Erdogan has already proved it too many times before. Unfortunately, the pride and perceived success makes Erdogan and Turks blow up with undeserved pride, and then they attempt to dictate their conditions, thinking themselves more important than they really are. That's how Erdogan got himself in trouble with Russia and that's how he almost lost his life and country in the recent coup.
Therefore, Russia has sent Erdogan and Turkey a pre-visit message. On Augsut 8, 2016, one day before Erodgan's visit, Putin and Lavrov were in Azerbaijan, meeting with presidents and FMs of Azerbaijan and Iran.
During the meeting in Baku, the leaders discussed a new, promising three-country alliance being born. Infrastructure and development projects were discussed, called The North-South Corridor, including integrating energy grids of three countries, joint oil and energy projects, new transportation corridor construction, including rail road and bridge.
Why is this important?
1. Azerbaijan is an ex-Soviet republic, which historically/culturally is between Iran and Turkey, with Russian culture being one of the dominant layers. Azeri territory at one or another point in history was a part of Persia (Iran), Ottoman Empire (Turkey) and Russian Empire/USSR. Its independence is very recent and only dates back to 1991-92. In the past 20 or so years Turkey, using its local clout and influence among Muslims, sought to manipulate Azerbaijan for its benefit, including against Russia.
2. Turkey and Iran are historically at loggerheads. In fact, they are direct rivals, constantly vying for the leadership in the Middle East.
By meeting with Iranian and Azerbaijani presidents just hours before Erdogan, Putin has sent Erdogan three important messages:
1. Turkey shouldn't expect too many concessions from Russia during August 9 negotiations, because Russia has other strong allies in the region - Iran, first and foremost. In other words, Turkey should get in line.
2. Azerbaijan is distancing itself from Turkey in favor of closer ties with Russia and Iran. Iran's influence is used here productively by Russia. Russia is demonstrating that she won't allow Turkey to manipulate Azerbaijan as a pressure point against Russia any more.
3. This is also a demo for the Turks' benefit as to what they could look forward to as part of a productive alliance. In fact, it's a hint for Turkey to stop sulking and to join such alliance.
4. In the longer perspective, it is a move to separate Turkey from NATO, which automatically distances Turkey from the West, which in turn accelerates the break-up of NATO.
All in all, it's a good and clear message to Turkey and US!
8/8/16 LAST MINUTE ADDITION (latest intel from Prof. Glazyev):
As I was preparing to publish this report, this video came out: Sergey Glazyev's talk on geopolitics and economy at Donuzlav 2016 patriotic summer youth forum in Crimea.
Prof. Glazyev is Vladimir Putin's advisor on economy. In the video below he touches upon many topics, including geopolitics as pseudo-science invented in 19th century by the British and Germans, the only goal of which was developing theories and playbooks on how to weaken and destroy Russia. There was no other target back then, as there really is no other target at this point in history.
NOTE: while all those analysts who talk about Russia being the main or the only target are spot on, as usual none of them, including the highly respected by me Prof. Glazyev, can explain why Russia has been for centuries hated by the proverbial West; why the West wants so badly to destroy Russia. The best you might hear from analysts is that 'Russia offers different values and way of life, and that's why she is so hated and has to be destroyed.' This conclusion is just too superficial and isn't good enough to explain the absolutely rabid hatred and obsession by the West to inflict harm on Russia.
This irrational Western hatred and urge to destroy Russia is explained solely by my EARTH SHIFT THEORY. Make sure you understand it! Click on these links to read about:
Earth Shift System
Quantum Calibrations
Russia-The Great Balancer
Predictions
The complete picture of practical manifestations of Russia's global balancing role and the ongoing Earth Shift are provided in Lada Ray's EARTH SHIFT REPORT.
That was just a side note. What I want to share is a specific bit of Glazyev's intel concerning Turkish coup. This bit corroborates everything I told you in this report. Here is my summary translation of Glazyev's words (10:00-11:17):
"War against Russia begins to strain the US. You know that recently they failed in Turkey. We can now pretty confidently say that US military and special services were behind the coup. High up US military is involved, including the US forces chief commander in NATO, who had worked at one point with his Turkish colleagues in Afghanistan. The arrested Turkish generals revealed that Americans prodded them to begin the coup and that US covered for the coup members. The actual plot was developed under the US forces cover at the Turkish NATO airforce base at which US and Turkish military worked together for years, knew each other intimately, and the Turks trusted their US counterparts. They were seduced by Americans to begin the coup, having been promised power, money and Turkey under direct NATO management. Turkey is NATO/USA's main ally in the region and losing such ally is a colossal loss. I think it will end in Turkey exiting NATO and this will finally allow us to stabilize the situation in Black Sea region."
VIDEO:
As I was preparing to publish this report, this video came out: Sergey Glazyev's talk on geopolitics and economy at Donuzlav 2016 patriotic summer youth forum in Crimea.
Prof. Glazyev is Vladimir Putin's advisor on economy. In the video below he touches upon many topics, including geopolitics as pseudo-science invented in 19th century by the British and Germans, the only goal of which was developing theories and playbooks on how to weaken and destroy Russia. There was no other target back then, as there really is no other target at this point in history.
NOTE: while all those analysts who talk about Russia being the main or the only target are spot on, as usual none of them, including the highly respected by me Prof. Glazyev, can explain why Russia has been for centuries hated by the proverbial West; why the West wants so badly to destroy Russia. The best you might hear from analysts is that 'Russia offers different values and way of life, and that's why she is so hated and has to be destroyed.' This conclusion is just too superficial and isn't good enough to explain the absolutely rabid hatred and obsession by the West to inflict harm on Russia.
This irrational Western hatred and urge to destroy Russia is explained solely by my EARTH SHIFT THEORY. Make sure you understand it! Click on these links to read about:
Earth Shift System
Quantum Calibrations
Russia-The Great Balancer
Predictions
The complete picture of practical manifestations of Russia's global balancing role and the ongoing Earth Shift are provided in Lada Ray's EARTH SHIFT REPORT.
That was just a side note. What I want to share is a specific bit of Glazyev's intel concerning Turkish coup. This bit corroborates everything I told you in this report. Here is my summary translation of Glazyev's words (10:00-11:17):
"War against Russia begins to strain the US. You know that recently they failed in Turkey. We can now pretty confidently say that US military and special services were behind the coup. High up US military is involved, including the US forces chief commander in NATO, who had worked at one point with his Turkish colleagues in Afghanistan. The arrested Turkish generals revealed that Americans prodded them to begin the coup and that US covered for the coup members. The actual plot was developed under the US forces cover at the Turkish NATO airforce base at which US and Turkish military worked together for years, knew each other intimately, and the Turks trusted their US counterparts. They were seduced by Americans to begin the coup, having been promised power, money and Turkey under direct NATO management. Turkey is NATO/USA's main ally in the region and losing such ally is a colossal loss. I think it will end in Turkey exiting NATO and this will finally allow us to stabilize the situation in Black Sea region."
VIDEO:
ADDENDUM
EXPLOSIVE CONSEQUENCES OF THE 8/9/16 PUTIN-ERDOGAN MEETING IN ST. PETERSBURG
& THE EARTH SHIFTING CHANGES IT FORETELLS!
Includes prediction exclusively for my ESR patrons:
which Russian pipeline to the EU will be completed first & which country will benefit most
Putin and Erdogan met in St. Petersburg on August 9, 2016. The meeting followed the failed Turkish coup and an equally failed double attack by Ukraine on Crimea, which occurred between 5 and 7 of August. Erdogan made sure he emphasized that Russia was the first country he visited after surviving the coup. This is diplomatic speak to underline the special importance of said country.
Just prior to the meeting, Erdogan threatened to boot out US military from Turkish NATO bases and instead, let the Russians use them. A turnaround especially stunning, considering Turkey's long-standing NATO membership and the 2015 story with Turkey shooting down the Russian Su24 and killing the Russian pilot.
Throughout ESR13, you have read all about these developments, complete with my secret intel, theories and revelations. When I released ESR13 on August 8 just before the Putin-Erdogan meeting, I also explained the staggeringly important role this meeting and Turkey-Russia negotiations would play in the ongoing Earth Shift (also see TRENDS & PREDICTIONS). Changes of great magnitude are afoot, and Erdogan-Putin meeting is one of the harbingers.
In this addendum I will tell you what really happened during the Erdogan-Putin meeting.
Erdogan repeatedly called Putin 'esteemed Vladimir' or 'esteemed Russian President Putin,' which is a very Middle Eastern way of offering an olive branch and underscoring how important the counterpart is to you. Putin, as far as I could tell, echoed that just once with 'esteemed President Erdogan.' No first name basis here.
In the report I predicted that Russia would be cautious with Turkey after the Su24 incident. The signal on the Turkish side was very clear: 'we very much want to make up and be in good graces again.' On the Russian side: 'sure, we are all for it, and here are our immediate signs of good will, but other than that, we'll see how you behave going forward, shall we?'
Before departing to Russia for the meeting, Erdogan made an announcement that much time was lost and that Turkey was eager to get back on track with two extremely important projects: Turkish Stream and Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant.
******
The Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant (Turkish: Akkuyu Nükleer Enerji Santrali) is a nuclear power plant under construction at Akkuyu, in Büyükeceli, Mersin Province, Turkey. It will be the country's first nuclear power plant. In May 2010, Russia and Turkey signed an agreement that a subsidiary of Rosatom — Akkuyu NGS Elektrik Uretim Corp. (APC: Akkuyu Project Company) — would build, own, and operate a power plant at Akkuyu comprising four 1,200 MW VVER units. Engineering and survey work started at the site in 2011. The construction of the first unit was to begin in 2016, with the four units put into service in 2022–25. In 2013, Russian nuclear construction company Atomstroyexport (ASE) and Turkish construction company Ozdogu signed the site preparation contract. The official launch ceremony took place in April 2015.
******
In ESR13 we discussed the mis-adventures of South Stream and Turkish Stream, along with reasons why it was so important for the US and Germany to sabotage them.
Akkuyu is a somewhat different story. Russians gave Turkey an amazing deal as part of the pre-2015 push to get Turkey on the Russian side and away from US influence. Part of the deal was that Russia would finance and build the power plant, with profits for its exploitation deferred for a number of years. The deal was an absolute windfall for Turkey, which would greatly reduce, or eliminate all-together the long-standing energy shortage basically for free. Then Turkish treacherous actions took place, including ISIS/Daesh help and the shooting down of Su24. Throughout the meeting, Erdogan kept referring to it as 'the unfortunate event.'
Erdogan and other Turkish officials/businesspeople arriving to Russia all confirmed how eager they were to restart both Akkuyu, whose construction was supposed to begin in 2016, and Turkish Stream. Too much time has been lost, Erdogan kept repeating like a mantra.
In other words, they acted exactly as I predicted. Meanwhile, Russia also acted as I predicted: willingly, but cautiously.
Russians agreed to restart the Akkuyu project. A large part of the negotiations was behind the closed doors, to avoid various sabotage attempts from the same parties that organized Su24 downing and the Turkish coup. I am sure many details of various deals will never be announced before the deals actually materialize into reality. However, the general intel I have received is that Russians have renegotiated the earlier deals in a more beneficial way, since Turkey came back in a greatly weakened position.
Turkey is equally eager to get back on track with Turkish Stream. “We lost a lot of time” was repeated over and over in a somewhat contrite (amazing for a Muslim country) manner. Turkey underscored how much they wanted to get back to the lucrative international project Russians practically gifted to them in 2015.
However, that's when a bucket of cold water was dumped on Turkey. Putin has re-affirmed that Russia remained committed to Turkish Stream, but only if and when Turkey obtains written legal guarantees from the EU that Europe wants Russian gas arriving via Turkish Stream and that EU cooperation is forthcoming.
Russia has also confirmed that they will restart Turkish Stream where it concerns Turkish internal gas supply only. In other words, for now the project is scaled down to the bilateral Russia-Turkey pipeline. Turkey, as I pointed out in previous ESRs, is suffering from energy shortages and high consumer energy prices. This includes electric power, as well as fuel for heating and cooking – many still use wood-burning and very polluting old-fashioned stoves, even in big centers such as Istanbul and Ankara. Therefore, it's a necessary project, but not of the scale and scope that was initially intended. However, the same surveys and foundation used for Turkish pipe can be used later to expand it to continue to Europe, when the landscape changes. And it will change.
Additionally, it's actually good to advertise officially the scaled down version of the project – this may, at least in part, discourage future attacks by the US. It's a hybrid war and rule number 1 is: don't advertise your moves to the enemy.
As I explained in ESR13 above, the sabotage of South Stream, and later of Turkish Stream, were necessary to delay the breakup of the predatory US Empire. South Stream – Turkish Stream would give a lot more sovereignty to Southern and Central Europe, leading to the weakening of the EU with subsequent breakup, and in turn, weakening US positions.
And another breaking news! As Turkey was proclaiming how eager they were to restart Turkish Stream, Bulgaria suddenly announced that they have again changed their minds and were now ready to host South Stream (read the entire story of Bulgaria's flip-flop and South Stream sabotage in ESR13 and ESR7: The battle for Eurasia! TURKISH CONUNDRUM). In other words, suddenly there is eager competition between countries to host Russian pipelines. Add to that Germany and Nord Stream 2. The healthy competition is very good, and it will push one of these projects through that much faster. I already told you in ESR13 which project it will be…
Here are two important questions for you to consider, which, once answered, will reveal the true meaning of this big geopolitical game. They'll explain why ukro-nazi coup in Ukraine had to be executed, why Su24 had to be shot down and why Turkey, EU and Russia had to be kept as enemies:
1. Why is suddenly Bulgaria so brave and wants back into the Russian gas game, after having chickened out the moment Uncle Sam said 'No'?
2. What will happen to Ukraine after all these projects go through and its old Soviet pipeline becomes obsolete?
Answers:
1. Make no mistake: Bulgaria really wanted to host the very lucrative South Stream and its refusal to do so is due only to its absolute lack of any sovereignty. Bulgaria is suddenly so brave because this is election time in the US. At this time, US is distracted with the elections and the sell-out Bulgarian government thinks they could sneak in South Stream unnoticed. But just think how puppet and spineless it really is if a simple visit by John McCain had previously put a stop to South Stream. I think South Stream is still preferred, and I can see that Russians may be thinking along the same lines. But its continuation may only be possible when this puppet government is replaced with a very different, sovereignty-minded type of government. Due to the nature of Bulgaria as an extremely apathetic and inertia-ridden state, this will take a while.
2. After pipelines bypassing Ukraine are built, Ukraine will stop having as much value to the US and they'll drop it as a hot potato, which in turn will cause the bandit regime of ukro-nazi Kiev junta and its pro-US oligarchic clan to implode. This will free up the genuine forces of liberation and Ukraine will make a swift turnaround towards its historic, political and economic ties with Russia. The problem with the territory we presently refer to as Ukraine is that it is an intrinsic part of the Russian World that was successfully infected with a virus of hatred towards everything Russian. Ukraine was targeted specifically because Russians never concealed how important Ukraine was to Russia. The US/West's logic: If Ukraine is that important, then it is necessary to tear it away. This was why the 2014 Kiev coup was necessary from USA's standpoint.
One of the major difficulties of dealing with Ukraine's situation for Russia right now is the fact that the all-Russian/Soviet infrastructure was built as one system, spanning all ex-republics. Therefore, Russian gas pipeline to the EU ran through Ukraine, delivering at its height up to 70% of Russian gas to Europe. Now it's down to 25% or so. This was a major pressure point against Russia throughout 2000s. You may remember the sudden gas stoppages as a result of Ukraine's sabotage and stealing of European gas. The manipulation of Russia by the US and various anti-Russian interests through the Ukraine pipe reached staggering proportions, culminating in the 2014 coup.
Therefore, getting the pipe away from Ukraine is a blessing for all: Russia, EU and Ukraine, as well. Ukraine, or what's left of it, will finally be left alone and allowed to rebuild itself (probably as several separate states and territories associated with Russia).
Therefore, one way or another, more pipelines bypassing Ukraine will be built no matter what. The only question is which countries will end up benefiting from the pipeline going through their territory. This will be determined by how quick on their feet and cooperative these countries are, plus, how smart and sovereign they are. As I said, I know which pipeline will be built first – and it's all in the report!
******
PREDICTION & answer exclusively for my ESR patrons:
Which pipeline to EU will be completed first & which country will benefit most: Nord Stream 2 & GERMANY!
******
In addition to all the above, Turkey continued asking for Russia to remove bans on tourism, air traffic, Turkish agricultural produce imports and Turkish construction companies working in Russia. Turkey made a killing in these areas and Russian money really supported Turkish economy, until Russia put the bans in place following the downing of the Su24.
Russians promised that they would be removing bans little by little. Read: depending on how you behave, we'll see what we can do. For the time being the tourism ban has been removed and charter flights to Turkey may be resumed soon. However, the terrorist warning for Turkey is still in place and only the most brave dare to go there. Russians aren't in a hurry to let construction and produce imports back in: they'll give more time for domestic companies to strengthen and take bigger share of the market.
Unthinkable just recently: Turkey-Russia cooperation in Syria!
After the meeting with 'esteemed Vladimir' Erdogan announced that Turkey is inviting Russia to fight jointly against ISIS/Daesh in Syria. This is yet another move by Turkey to spite US and NATO, following earlier threats to boot US troops out of Turkish bases, and after a clash with Germany.
This is a staggering, unthinkable just recently announcement! After all, Turkey just recently helped ISIS/Al-Nusra/Muslim Brotherhood terrorists and Syria/Assad has been Erdogan/Turkey's mortal enemy. Read all about that in ESR7: TURKISH CONUNDRUM.
We may soon hear announcements about certain Russia-Turkey joint missions. In my view, Russia will continue being cautious with involving Turkish militarily, until they are sure they can trust them. However, getting Turkey on Russia's side in Syria and Black Sea vicinity – and on these new, more favorable to Russia conditions – is a huge, huge, HUGE win.
It's also a HUGE humiliation and loss of face for the US. It has already, and it will continue leading to the weakening of the US and NATO.
We should expect Turkey cooperating with Russia in shutting down its border to Syrian terrorist supplies, oil, money and weapon smuggling. We can also expect better cooperation in securing Black Sea, such as not allowing certain US military ships through and cooperating in allowing faster passage for Russian ships through the straits. All these are still stop-gap measures. As I explained in the report, the issue of Black Sea and Straits has to be resolved in principle: all outsider military ships (read: US military ships, since no other outside country does that) have to be banned from entering. Only the military ships of countries bordering Black Sea should be allowed in Black Sea.
The extreme value of Black Sea, and therefore, the frantic activity around it, is due to one factor only: it is the soft and vulnerable underbelly of Russia. Therefore, surrounding Russia with unfriendly regimes has been US/UK strategy for hundreds of years. I explained how it all works in ESR8: BLACK SEA GAMBIT.
The value and relative vulnerability of Crimea is derived directly from the same. The recent attack by Ukraine on Crimea is correlated with the rest of the events we've talked about. I am preparing a new Earth Shift Report, which will address the recent attacks on Crimea, why they happened and why now, who benefits, how it will impact Ukraine's future, how US elections may be impacted, and whether Russia will sever diplomatic ties with Ukraine. We'll also discuss the future of Crimea. Expect the new ESR: THE CRIMEA FACTOR in August 2016.
Keeping up with pretenses, the US State Dept announced that they were not bothered by Turkish cooperation with Russia at all, and that 'US strategy in Syria didn't change.' However, that is not because US feels just fine about Turkish move. If it were up to them, Erdogan would be dead right this moment and pro-US Turkish generals would be in power. It's simply because they are out of options. This is a serious defeat for the US Empire.
That said, US won't leave Turkey alone. It will attempt more coups, terror acts, etc. Same goes for Russia. And remember, Russian elections are coming. Moreover, US elections have a direct bearing on all these events as well. How? Stay tuned for new Earth Shift Reports, in which all this will be revealed!
Why Putin chose to meet with Erdogan not in Moscow but in St. Petersburg
Perhaps very subtly, this is also a message. St. Petersburg was once founded by Peter the Great as then landlocked Russian Empire's first serious international port in the Baltic Sea, designed for the new Western-prevalence era of 17th -20th centuries (in prior millennium, the ancient Rus peoples, with their multiple centers of influence, of course, had various ports on different continents). Peter called the St. Pete port: 'a window to Europe.'
The new strategy of the US/West has been to shut and bolt down this window to Western Europe, creating a New Iron Curtain from Baltic to Black Sea via a cordon of unfriendly to Russia regimes. It was a partial success, with Romania, 3 ex-Soviet Baltic mini-states and Poland joining the cordon. A snag happened in the middle of the Baltic-Black Sea Iron Curtain, when Czechia, Slovakia and Hungary wisely decided to stay neutral to kind-of-friendly to Russia. It also turned out that converting Belarus into anti-Russia didn't work no matter what. But Ukraine became the clincher. After 2004 color revolution, only a partial success was achieved. In 2014 the success was complete with a total Ukraine subversion. Turkey and Bulgaria were also supposed to be part of the Iron Curtain. Bulgaria turned reluctantly, only with a partial success, while Turkey refused to be easy.
The grand total of this entire scheme is that the Iron Curtain isn't working as well as the Transatlantic masters want it to work. Moreover, it is so shaky it may just topple any moment at one's slight touch. The most important factor in the unreliability of this flimsy Iron Curtain is that Russia/Putin refused to play by West's rules and began creating their own rules, thus changing the reality around them and beginning to fulfill Russia's true destiny as the Great Global Balancer and Stabilizer.
Therefore, we see a signal, which, it appears, few have understood: Turkish president Erdogan, who was supposed to be responsible for locking down the Black Sea end of the Iron Curtain, meets Putin in his native city of St. Petersburg, the place where Russia's biggest Baltic Sea ports are, often called 'Russia's window to Europe.' In the more modern terms: Nord Stream 2 is to be laid through the bottom of Baltic Sea; Turkish Stream - through Black Sea.
Consequently, the recipient is known and the message is: 'The New Iron Curtain has failed.'
P.S. Why following Erdogan's visit Putin met with Armenian president
On August 10, one day after the breakthrough meeting with Erdogan, Vladimir Putin received president of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan. As I also said in the above report, on August 8, one day before Erdogan, Putin met in Azerbaijan with Iranian and Azeri presidents.
As usual, nothing happens by accident in the global chess game. Armenia and Turkey are mortal enemies. So are Iran and Turkey. Azerbaijan and Armenia, unfortunately, are also enemies, with continuing armed conflicts. All these mutual animosities are used by outside forces to manipulate various countries against each other and to destabilize the region. By contrast, Russia's goal as the Global Balancer, is to stabilize and harmonize the region and the whole planet.
By meeting with Armenian leader right after all others, the relative closeness of the EAEU member Armenia to Russia is underscored. A signal is sent that Russia's deals with Turkey or Azerbaijan do not mean Russia has forgotten her ally Armenia. At the same time, by meeting neck to neck with leaders of all these rival countries, Putin sends a signal of cooperation and unification to all of them.
'It's much better to cooperate and get along' is Russia's message. Enough with the archaic 'divide and conquer,' used by the US Empire. A better way, based on cooperation and mutually beneficial, peaceful relations, is shown by Russia. The world is tired of wars and people aren't blind. They can see that Russia is the only country that can unite - as opposed to divide - various countries.
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